Saturday is the third game in a four game weekend set between two AL East teams that just finished a weekend series with the Braves surprisingly sweeping the struggling Mets.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
A week ago, it would’ve been hard to get behind the Braves at all regardless of opponent, location of game or who was on the mound. Atlanta really has been that bad this season.
While a sweep of the Mets while in New York last weekend skews things a bit, the Braves are still the worst team in the National League. They still struggle to score runs, and they still have plenty of holes all over the diamond.
Interestingly, this series being at Turner Field may actually be an advantage for the Mets. Atlanta has struggled at home in their last season at this ballpark. They’re 9-27 at home, but 14-19 on the road.
New York meanwhile, even after the sweep at the hands of the Braves, are four games over .500 overall and have a better road record.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Julio Teheran and Jacob deGrom are set for a rematch after the two met the last time through the order on June 19.
While that game was in New York, this will be down in Atlanta where the Braves will look to repeat the success they enjoyed in the Big Apple.
In their last meeting, Teheran threw a complete game one-hitter, but did toss 120 pitches in the effort. It’ll be worth watching the impact of such a long outing on his on Saturday. He’s got an extra day’s rest, but may have a shorter leash this time around.
On the other side of the field, deGrom will look to improve off an okay outing. He recorded a quality start, allowing three runs over six innings on Sunday. While not bad, it’s not what he wanted against a poor hitting team like Atlanta.
Teheran is having a nice bounce-back campaign here in 2016. His ERA ballooned to 4.04 last year, but is back under three at 2.66 here through his first 15 starts of 2016. Of course, with little to no run support, he’s just 3-7, but his WHIP of 0.908 and his 3.83 strikeout to walk ration make this likely his best season to date.
On the other side, deGrom is putting up similar numbers. He’s 3-4 with a 2.96 ERA and a strikeout to walk ratio just under four. He’s allowing a few more hits than Teheran and, as a result, his WHIP is up to 1.137, but he’s also allowing half a homer fewer per nine innings to compensate.
In terms of pure numbers, this is a pretty even matchup and neither have a very challenging offense to encounter. Of course, Teheran is coming off a very, very strong start and that could be the edge, but deGrom is a more consistent hurler with five straight quality starts.
LIVE BETTING
The Mets and Braves ranks No. 28 and No. 29 respectively in total offense, just ahead of fellow NL East team, the Philadelphia Phillies.
While the total run output between these teams is separated by just 18 total runs and the average of each team is nearly identical with the Mets hitting .234 and Braves batting .235, there is a bit of a difference in terms of power.
New York has the bats to hit the ball out of the park, slamming 90 already this year. The Braves, on the other hand, are dead last in baseball in home runs with only 32.
Teheran kept the Mets in the park and he’ll look to do the same on Saturday. A large portion of the Mets’ runs come on the home run as they struggle to manufacture runs. It’s key for Teheran to keep the ball down and keep New York in the park.
Interestingly, the Met’s power has dried up some in June with 17 home runs and with that decrease in power has come a decrease in runs. They’ve scored fewer than any team in baseball here in June with just 56 runs, 15 fewer than the Braves. Atlanta’s still shown less pop with 11 homers, but they’ve seen a better average of .255 lead to a bit more opportunities.
While the Braves pitching needs to keep the ball out of the middle of the zone for the Mets, the Mets’ arms need to not let Freddie Freeman beat them. He’s the only Braves player having an above-average offensive year with his .857 OPS. Chase d’Arnaud has been a bit of a surprise, though. He’s had just 117 at bats, but his OPS+ is 109.
For the Mets, it’s injuries that’ve dried up their production. Lucas Duda is out. David Wright is out, as is Travis d’Arnaud, Eric Campbell and Juan Lagares. On top of that Michael Conforto has slowed and is hitting only .231, Neil Walker was cranking the long balls early, but his bat has slowed; so has Yoenis Cespedes’s.
QUICK PICK
We’ve got a couple strong pitchers on the mound and few offenses that are amongst the worst in the sport. That should lead us to a low scoring game.
Look for the Mets to be out for revenge in this series and this game after Teheran shut them out last week. Add in a likely shorter leash for the right-hander and this game leans in favor of the road team. After all, the Mets are better on the road and the Braves are worse at home.
MLB Odds: Mets 4, Braves 3
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