Jake Arrieta will make his second half debut after resting throughout the All-Star break in San Diego on Monday night when the Cubs open up a three game revenge minded set with the visiting New York Mets at historic Wrigley Field.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
If not for dropping three straight to the division rival Mets right before the break, Terry Collins’ squad would be one of the hottest going heading into the second half of the season. Before dropping that disheartening series to the Nats at home of all places, NY clubbed the Cubs in four straight and then took two of three from the Marlins to put some breathing room between them and Miami in the standings. They’ll return from the break 47-41 and down $636 for their betting backers. They’ll invade Chicago potentially a losing team on the road after opening the second half in Philly with a 21-21 record as visitors ( -$345 ).
At one point this season, the Cubs were the kings of the world sitting 20 games over .500 and holding what looked to be an insurmountable lead atop the NL Central standings. The last three weeks heading into the break were nightmarish at best with Joe Maddon’s troops dropping 15 of their final 21 games played to cost MLB bettors a whopping $1733. Because of it, Chicago will open the second half of the regular season down $826 overall. That said, they’ve won 26 of 40 games played at home ( -$445 ) but will be looking to secure their first series win at home since June 19.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
After a terrible 2016 debut, Steven Matz went on to toss quality starts in seven straight starts allowing 2 ER or less three times and allowing none four times. It’s been a steep downward fall ever since with the young lefty mustering just three quality starts the last eight times he took to the starting bump. In his most recent start versus the Nats before the break, he went seven innings for the second straight start but saw his final stat line marred by four walks. He’s 4-2 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.27 WHIP on the road to date, but got roughed up in his lone career start versus the Cubs allowing seven hits and 3 ER through 5.1 innings in a no decision.
In giving up 15 ER in his last three starts, Jake Arrieta no longer possesses the best ERA on the Cubs’ starting staff. That distinction goes to Kyle Hendricks (2.55), but Jake’s 2.68 ERA is nothing to scoff at. Sure, the reigning NL Cy young Award winner got beat up recently, but don’t for one second think his dominating ways are a thing of the past. Tonight will give him an excellent opportunity to quiet the naysayers in front of a nationally televised audience at Wrigley Field where he’s allowed no more than 3 ER in any of his eight made starts to date. He’s 2-2 with a 2.48 ERA and .221 batting average against versus the Mets lifetime.
LIVE BETTING
With the Mets owning the third to worst scoring offense in the league, it comes as no surprise to see the unit struggling against both left and right handed pitchers. For this matchups purposes, NY stands 36-32 versus righties and has scored an average of 3.8 runs per game against them with the under 31-36-1 in those contests.
As for Chicago, it scores an average of 5.3 runs per game against right handed pitchers, but has also gotten the job done against lefties whom it’s 20-10 against while plating an average of 5.1 runs per baseball game; the under is 16-13-1 in those contests.
QUICK PICK
While the Cubs have a crucial series set to go the first weekend of the second half against the Texas Rangers, this is the series that will matter most to the guys donning Cubbie Blue as well as the thousands of Cubs fans flooding the corner of Clark and Addison over the next three days.
Regardless of Matz looking a bit better in his last three starts, he’s suffering from bone spurs and there is a growing sentiment that NY isn’t truly offering up the full story. Chicago is an unforgiving opponent for him, and it could get ugly real quick if off his game early. Chicago has had this series circled for quite some time. Look for them to rally around their staff ace, give him the run support needed to log win No. 13 and finally put an end to their eight game losing streak to the Mets.
MLB Odds: Cubs 7, Mets 2
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