Detroit and New York are both outside of the playoff picture looking in at the moment, but each are just a couple games back in the wildcard race and, for the Tigers, they’re within shouting distance of the top spot in the division. We’re now in crunch time for these teams looking to make a push towards October baseball.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Tigers have been red hot and have swept the Red Sox in Fenway and Astros at Comerica in back-to-back series.
What’s more, during this six game winning streak, the Tigers won close games against Boston and completely blew out the Astros in two of the three contests. They’re winning, regardless of the style of the game.
The wins have helped elevated the Tigers into the playoff hunt and puts them just four games back of the Indians as of Tuesday. They’re also now sporting a total moneyline of $1,428, making them the second most profitable team for bettors in the AL.
All of this positive news is great, but there’s one downside: they failed to make any moves at the non-waiver trade deadline. That can have a psychological impact on a team.
The Mets did make moves at the deadline, acquiring Jay Bruce to help spark the offense and bringing back Jonathon Niese to give the team some veteran depth in the rotation.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Based on how the rotations lineup right now, we could be in for quite a treat on Friday night with the youngster Noah Syndergaard facing the grizzled veteran who is quietly pitching very, very well in Justin Verlander.
Syndergaard got his first All-Star selection this year and has built off a solid rookie campaign a season ago. In 21 games, including 20 starts, he’s 9-5 with a 2.48 ERA and 1.143 WHIP.
Since last year, the 23-year old right-hander has lowered his home run rate, allowing just seven all year in 123 1/3 innings. He’s also improved his strikeout to walk ration to six.
The righty has thrown back-to-back quality starts, but has given up three runs in both of those game—albeit just two earned in each. He has regressed some over his last seven outings though his ERA in that time is still a very respectable 3.76.
As for Verlander, he’s 11-6 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.059 WHIP. He’s already started 22 games and thrown 147 1/3 innings for the Tigers. His walks, strikeouts and home run ratios are all worse than Syndergaards, as is his ERA, but the veteran has reinvented himself after a couple less-than-stellar years and has come out on the other side putting up very strong numbers even with diminished stuff.
The 33-year old right-hander isn’t afraid of contact and inducing weak contact to help him go deep in games. He, of course, can still dial it up enough to get key strikeouts and his strikeout rate is up to 9.5 per nine innings, the best since leading the league at 10.1 in 2009.
While his total season suggests he’s a top of the rotation talent, his recent numbers return him to the conversation of true aces.
Over his last six starts, Verlander is 4-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.891 WHIP in 42 2/3 innings. That’s more than seven innings a start. He’s going deep and producing quality innings again. There’s no coincidence that the Tigers got hot when Verlander started looking like the former MVP again.
LIVE BETTING
As noted, the Mets picked up Jay Bruce on Monday to help bolster their offense. They’re hoping he can give them the Yoenis Cespedes effect from last year when New York went from the worst to the best offense in baseball between the first half and second half of the season.
Of course one guy having that pronounced of an impact is highly unlikely to happen again, but just what can we expect from this offense now?
Well, the Bruce acquisition was a very Mets type of move. He doesn’t exactly fit well in terms of his position on this team. Any time you can add the NL RBI leader you have improved your offense, but as a corner bat, that means Cespedes, Michael Conforto and/or Curtis Granderson have to play in center. That’s not an ideal defensive alignment.
Still, Bruce added to the order behind Cespedes should afford the Cuban outfielder a few more pitches to hit and should lengthen the Mets’ order. Cespedes has been out a few games with a quad issue, but should be back by Friday.
For Detroit, their offense has gotten better with Justin Upton playing like the player the Tigers thought they signed.
Upton was terrible in the first half and the fact his OPS is still only .699 reflects that. Nevertheless, he’s finally found his stroke. Here in the second half, he’s posted a .879 OPS and has seen that OPS tick up each month.
With Upton now a legitimate threat in the order again, he’s added to the likes of Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, Victor Martinez, Nick Castellanos and Cameron Maybin who all have OPS+ number of at least 118.
QUICK PICK
The Tigers are rolling and even without the emotional boost of a trade should continue rolling with their ace on the hill on Friday.
Verlander is pitching like the Verlander of old and while the bullpen is a big of a question, he’s been going deep enough in games to ease the concern.
The Mets have the home field edge in this game, but they’re just a couple games over .500 at home and the Tigers have done pretty well on the road—particularly over the last few weeks.
Given the pitching matchup, look for a low scoring game with the Tigers able to lean on their stacked offense to plate a few runs against a tough pitcher.
MLB Odds: Tigers 4, Mets 2
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! First pitch for the game between the New York Mets and Detroit Tigers is scheduled for Friday, August 5, 2016, at 7:10 p.m. ET at Comerica Park. The matchup will be televised regionally on FOX Sports Detroit and SportsNet New York.
