It’s a rematch of last year’s scrappy NLDS in which the Mets won a decisive Game 5 in Dodger Stadium. A few of the names have changed, but the atmosphere will be just as electric.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
While the Dodgers entered the week in a virtual tie for first place in the NL West, most of the damage has been done on the road. And that’s quite different from how the Dodgers have operated in the past. Los Angeles had the best home record in the major leagues last season but has stumbled out of the gate in 2016.
Entering play this week, the Dodgers were just 5-8 at home and needed a three-hit shutout from Clayton Kershaw to avoid a winless homestand when they last played at Dodger Stadium. Those games were against Miami and San Diego, not the cream of the NL crop, and the Dodgers went just 1-6 and were in the red 9.62 units on the moneyline in those seven games.
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Noah Syndergaard (2-2, 2.58 ERA) was the tough-luck loser in his last start, saddled with his second consecutive defeat after allowing two earned on six hits over six innings at San Diego on Friday. The Mets were blanked in that contest and Syndergaard has received just one run of support from his mates in his past two starts.
While Syndergaard’s velocity remains dynamic, his imperfect command and inability to slow the running game have kept him winless in his last three starts. He’ll return to Dodger Stadium for the first time since pitching in relief in New York’s NLDS series-clinching Game 5 win.
Rookie Kenta Maeda (3-1, 1.66 ERA) was effective in Toronto on Friday, allowing just two runs on two hits with seven strikeouts over six innings. The Jays made Maeda throw a season-high 102 pitches to cover his stint. He relied heavily on the slider and seemed reluctant to throw fastballs. He also walked four, which is not his norm.
His only mistake was a two-run homer off the bat of Jose Bautista in the sixth inning. Maeda has come down a bit, surrendering six of his seven earned runs this season in his past two outings. Still, he carries a sterling 1.66 ERA into his start with the Mets.
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The struggles of Cubs lefty Jon Lester holding runners on base has become an ongoing joke. Now, someone else has become a butt of the jokesters. Syndergaard has allowed 14 stolen bases in 16 chances this season, several of those directly leading to runs. That was the case in his last start, and it may have cost him and the Mets a victory. A stolen base in the fifth inning on Saturday night directly led to San Diego’s second run in what was eventually a 2-0 Padres victory.
It’s not like Thor and his coaches aren’t working to find a solution and the Mets are optimistic that Syndergaard’s stolen base problems will soon become a thing of the past. The good news for Syndergaard is that the Dodgers aren’t a base stealing team. The bad news is he can turn them into one.
QUICK PICK
Poor Syndergaard. He always seems to be the guy on the hill when the Mets fail to score runs. I’m sure it’s nothing personal against the guy, but in his three starts in which the Mets have lost, they scored a total of two runs. Overall, the Metropolitans have scored 14 runs in the six games he started for a total of 2.3 runs per baseball game. Syndergaard’s ERA is 2.58, so you can see why his record is just 2-2.
It won’t be much easier for the Mets to dent Maeda and the Dodgers. The Japanese import has been outstanding through six starts and looks like he’s for real. So that adds up to this being a low-scoring game. But the Mets have shown a bit more life offensively than the Dodgers have recently and New York leads the majors in homers. That will be the difference.
MLB Odds: New York 4, Los Angeles 3
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