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The battle for New York was always the crown jewel of the interleague play schedule as the New York Yankees and New York Mets battled for the hearts of those within the Big Apple. Monday’s game kicks-off the home-and-home series between these teams with the Mets, the constant underdog, even bigger underdogs now.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The non-waiver trade deadline may have come and gone a couple weeks ago, but moves are still being made. If you want proof, just look at the Mets who sent Jay Bruce packing to Cleveland.
Without Bruce, the Mets’ outfield jigsaw puzzle becomes a bit clearer although the team is still without a legitimate centerfielder, though that is a different story.
Of course, with Bruce now an Indian, that removes the team’s second best offensive player per OPS+.
For New York, it was the pitching that sent them into a spiral that ultimately led to their need to sell off assets rather than make a postseason push. Between injuries and ineffectiveness, the starting rotation that was the strength of this team crumbled on itself. The offense, even with so many round pegs being stuffed into square holes, was average. That, however, was before Bruce and Lucas Duda were traded.
The Yankees’ offense has taken a step back, too, but that’s been a slump. They’ve actually still got the names to get back to the well-oiled offensive machine they were early in the year.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Which Masahiro Tanaka will it be on the mound for the Yankees on Monday? The right-hander burst onto the scene, coming over from Japan in 2014 and was the model of consistency—even with questions about his elbow—for three years.
This year, Tanaka has been hit-or-miss. He’s 8-10 with a 4.93 ERA. This is the first time he’s lost double digit games. This is also the first time his ERA has been above 3.51.
The struggles have led some to wonder if the elbow is finally letting out, but we have still seen several great starts from Tanaka this year. It’s just not been consistent. While we see some good outings, we also see some clunkers.
Tanaka has thrown the ball well in his last two starts, combining for 14 innings with just three runs—two earned—with 21 strikeouts and a single walk.
On the other side, the Mets are expected to go with Rafael Montero against the Bronx Bombers.
Montero is not a good option. He’s now 1-8 with a 6.06 ERA after allowing four runs in three innings against the Rangers.
The 26-year old right-hander held a great deal of promise as a prospect, but terrible command has negated the above average stuff. He gave up a homer and three walks in his last start and has walked nine in his last three starts, 13.1 innings. He’s allowed seven homers in his last four games.
Given how bad Montero has been, the Mets could try to look in a different direction, but with the DL littered with starters, Terry Collins doesn’t really have any other choices that would be that much better.
LIVE BETTING
The Yankees have the advantage on the mound, even with the unreliability of Tanaka this year. At least you know ace-like ability is there with good command. We’ve yet to see Montero exhibit good command.
On top of the mismatch on the mound, the Yankees hold the edge in every other facet of the game as well.
The Yankee bullpen is way deeper than the Mets so even if Montero manages to keep the game close, the Bronx Bombers have the huge advantage in any close game. Really, any option Joe Girardi has out of the pen is a good one. A.J. Ramos replaces Addison Reed in the ninth for the Mets. That’s fine, but every option leading to Ramos is a bad option.
In addition, the Yankees’ offense—while slumping—still has the personnel to be great. The Mets have Michael Conforto, Yoenis Cespedes and little else unless you count rookies who have yet to establish themselves.
QUICK PICK
Tanaka is anything but a sure thing, but while Montero is a sure thing, that’s not a good thing.
Look for Montero to struggle with command and the Yankees’ bats to take advantage. The Bronx Bombers haven’t been the same offensively in the second half, but Wednesday showed the offense coming around and this group can still hit, particularly with the pitcher cannot locate.
After a short outing by Montero, the Mets’ bullpen should provide some relief, but not enough to stop the Yanks from adding on and blowing out the Mets.
MLB Odds: Yankees 9, Mets 3
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