If your favorite baseball team isn't playing tonight, make the games more interesting by betting on MLB odds at BookMaker sportsbook! This is the only online wagering outlet that offers early MLB moneylines, runlines and totals. First pitch for the game between the New York Mets and Pittsburgh Pirates is scheduled for Sunday, May 28, 2017, at 8:08 p.m. ET at PNC Park. The matchup can be seen live on ESPN.
This game is not quite the showdown of wildcard contenders that ESPN was hoping for at the beginning of the year. Instead, the New York Mets and Pittsburgh Pirates will wrap up a three-game series on Sunday night with both sitting well below-.500. The Pirates currently bring up the rear in the NL Central while the Mets are fortunate to be in a division with three other equally bad teams.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Overall, the Pirates have only scored 186 runs and have a .689 OPS. It’s hard to do much offensively when your biggest star is suspended, your break out young stud from last year was on the DL and your former MVP is batting .203 with a OPS+ of 66.
That’s what the Pirates are dealing with. Given all of that, it’s impressive they’re not worse offensively.
Adam Frazier has been an absolutely blessing and David Freese continues to quietly provide consistent at bats. Those two, along with Josh Bell and Josh Harrison make up this offense right now. All four are good players, but nobody can regard any of them as more than role players and therein lies the problem.
Meanwhile, in New York, the Met’s offense has been respectable compared to the pitching.
Yes, they’ve been without Yoenis Cespedes, but Michael Conforto has become the hitter everyone expected last year and Jay Bruce is a productive bat. This lineup has enough, even with Curtis Granderson struggling, to outscore the Pirates except for one thing: the pitching.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
A pair of talented right-handers will battle on national television Sunday night with neither able to consistently command the ball in or out of the zone.
The Mets will turn to embattled Gotham City hero turned Metropolitan headache Matt Harvey who will try and improve on his 5.36 ERA and 4.6 walk per nine innings ratio as he faces a Pirates team that’s touched him up throughout his career, albeit in limited action.
Simply put, the 28-year old has been bad for each of the last two seasons now. He’s not the same guy that put up a 2.27 ERA in an All-Star 2013 campaign nor is he the same guy that bounced back from Tommy John to go 13-8 with a 2.71 in 2015. Instead, he’s an inconsistent thrower with diminished stuff.
He’s been a below replacement level pitcher so far, it’s just too bad the Mets have no better options.
Harvey did get the win his last time out, but it was against the Padres who still managed to draw four walks and score a pair of runs in five innings. Still, it snapped a six-game losing skid for the Mets with Harvey on the hill.
To counter Harvey, the Pirates are going to their own pitcher who is having similar problems—minus the off-field distractions in Tyler Glasnow. For Glasnow, however, age is a factor. He’s still adjusting to big league hitters. He’s just 23-years old and is at the stage where he is showing flashes of what he could become. For now, he’s just inconsistent.
Overall, Glasnow is 2-3 with a 6.69 ERA in nine starts spanning 40.1 innings. He has struck out 41 batters, but has also walked 26.
That’s the bad news for the young right-hander. The good news is he’s showing growth. While Harvey’s last start was tolerable against a bad team. Glasnow’s was solid against an ever-so-slightly better team in the Braves.
The youngster went six innings, allowing just two runs though he did give up nine hits, but minimized the damage. Three of Glasnow’s last five starts have been quality starts so that’s at least something in his favor, but prior to the Atlanta starter, the Diamondbacks and Nationals combined to knock in nine runs in 7.1 innings in his previous two starts.
LIVE BETTING
How do you overcome bad starting pitching? Well, a strong offense and/or a dominating bullpen. We’ve already looked at the offensive picture so does the pen paint a better scenario for either team? Short answer: yes, for one.
The Pirates pen has been respectable this year. They’re a bit better than average with a 3.18 ERA, for the Mets’ the pen is pitching to a 5.08 ERA and lacks anything beyond set-up man turned closer Addison Reed.
Reed has done well filling in for Jeurys Familia, but the first eight innings of every game is an issue.
Hansel Robles was a primary set up option, but his 6.23 ERA has him off the squad. Fernando Salas hasn’t been much better. Really, this team has Jacob deGrom, Reed and LOOGY Jerry Blevins as their own good arms.
On the other side, Tony Watson has been good in the closer role for the Pirates when given an opportunity and he’s backed up by a few good arms, including Felipe Rivero who has a 0.73 ERA in 24.2 innings.
If the Pirates get deep in the game with the lead, or a tie, they’ve got it in the bag. The Mets? Not so much.
QUICK PICK
The Mets cannot pitch and are 8-11 on the road. The Pirates get back Gregory Polanco and get to play at PNC Park where they’re at least over-.500.
Neither of these teams are good and the Mets have the edge on offense, but the rest of the factors point to the Pirates. You cannot trust Harvey right now and while Glasnow is hard to have faith in as well, he’s at least got the upside that seems to have disappeared for the pitcher formerly known as the Dark Knight.
In any case, look for a high scoring affair early, even with the Pirates’ offensive struggles and bank on the Pirates’ bullpen pulling out a close victory.
MLB Odds: Pirates 8, Mets 7
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