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The Baby Bombers are doing the unthinkable as they are just a couple games out of a playoff berth. The Yankees have overcome a lot of challenges to get here, but the Red Sox offer a new challenge as these rivals square off in an extended series with Saturday likely to be a mismatch on the mound.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Even following a loss on Monday night, the Yankees have still won 13 of 19 games, but overall this is a team that’s light on the mound and struggles with their ace, Masahiro Tanaka isn’t pitching.
Tanaka won’t be on the hill on Saturday and without him, they’re still six games under .500. With him, they’re 15 games over.
Given the pitching disadvantage things could get dicey, but even earlier in the season when everything was going wrong for New York they managed to play Boston tough even as the Sox won seven of their first 12 meetings.
The Yankees right now are trending better than Boston, but not by much. The Sox have taken over the top spot in the AL East and will be in a position to essentially lock up the spot in the Yankee series.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
We’re still a ways out and both teams have shaken up their rotation a bit over the last couple times through either due to injury or trying to provide some extended rest.
In either case, the rotations lineup to feature a matchup of the Yankees’ Bryan Mitchell against the Red Sox’s ace southpaw: David Price.
It’s a bit of a mismatch considering it’s a veteran ace against an unproven youngster and while Price struggled to find his footing in Boston, he’s pitched much better of late.
Overall, Price is 16-8 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.167 WHIP. The ERA is higher than his career average, but his FIP is down at 3.36 and he’s done a good job limiting walks and keeping his strikeout to walk rate at 4.77, around the level it’s been the last few years.
For Price, the only real concerning number is the home run rate. He’s already given up 24 bombs, just one off his career high. Even in a two-hit, eight-inning outing on Monday night against the Orioles, the two hits he allowed were both homers.
When we break down Price a bit further, we see a starter pitching very, very well. He’s allowed two runs or less and done at least six in six straight games, posting a 1.93 ERA in that stretch. Right now, you can count on him to go deep in the game and only allow a couple runs.
On the other side, Mitchell will be making just his third major league start and appearance this year. He pitched in 20 games last year with a 6.37 ERA. In his two starts in 2016, he’s gone just seven and a third innings, giving up six runs—two earned—on 12 hits.
LIVE BETTING
The dominance of the Boston offense cannot be overstated. This is a team that scored 12 runs on Monday, putting up at least 11 for the third time in its last four games.
This team has Jackie Bradley Jr. hitting ninth and he’s got a .850 OPS and 24 home runs. Sure, he cooled off for a while, but he’s 12 for his last 39 with three homers and 11 RBIs in that time.
The lineup is just relentless. They’ve got seven of the team’s nine starters with an OBP north of .350 and that doesn’t even count Chris Young who’s a dynamic bat off the bench in a match up should the Yankees turn to a lefty arm out of the pen.
And then, of course, there’s David Ortiz and Mookie Betts. Ortiz has five homers in 12 games against the Yankees this year and has 52 career home runs against them with a .965 OPS. As for Betts, he’s a MVP candidate. He’s hit 30 homers and stolen 23 bases.
Offensively for the Yankees, they have gotten a huge spark from Gary Sanchez and his .333 average, 13 homers and 24 RBIs in 35 games. While he’s cooled off some, he’s still hit two home runs in his last five games.
Sanchez is certainly the headline for the youth movement, but the Tyler Austin and Aaron Judge experiments haven’t been as fruitful. We’re starting to see the offense cool back down some. Here in September, New York has scored less than four runs a game.
QUICK PICK
We may see another Sanchez bomb or someone else square up Price for a solo shot and its common for the opposition to plate a couple against him, but don’t look for much as he goes deep into the game before turning the ball over to some combination of Brad Ziegler and Craig Kimbrel to close it out.
Meanwhile, on the other side, it really doesn’t matter who pitches as long as it’s not Tanaka and given Mitchell’s struggles and injuries this year, it’s even better for Boston that he’s lined up go pitch.
The Red Sox should have a hay day against the young right-hander. Look for plenty of runs and feel free to take the over in scoring, backing the Sox offense.
MLB Odds: Red Sox 9, Yankees 4
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