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You know baseball season is in full swing when you get a New York Yankees versus Boston Red Sox showdown in national television. The Sox came into the season as one of the favorites on paper while injuries have further depleted a Yankees team that was looking more towards the future. Nevertheless, the Yankees have over performed early while the Sox have struggled to adjust to the post David Ortiz world.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Yankees have scored the second most runs in all of baseball and most of any team in the American League, despite their 17 games played tying them for the second fewest in the sport.
Boston, on the other hand, falls in the middle of the pack.
Heading into Sunday, the Sox had just a few everyday players hitting up to their expectations. Mookie Betts had yet to really show much power—like most of the team—but he and Hanley Ramirez went back-to-back before any outs were recorded in the game. It was just Betts’ second of the year and the first for HanRam.
While most of the Sox have gotten off to slow starts, most of the Yankees have over-performed. Austin Romine has failed to establish himself as a legitimate Major League bat over a few seasons, yet he’s hitting like Gary Sanchez, allowing the team not to a miss a beat with their young stud catcher out of action.
Greg Bird is starting to turn things around, too, he’s been the one player that’s struggled—along with Brett Gardner who is at least still stealing bases—but his bat has shown signs of life after an ice cold start.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
This is a primetime, nationally televised game and we’ve got quite the pitching matchup for that big stage.
Masahiro Tanaka will toe the rubber for the Yankees, opposing southpaw Chris Sale for the BoSox.
While the Yankees have done well early on, Tanaka hasn’t exactly lived up the expectations. He’s made four starts on the year, giving up 14 runs—all earned—in 21 innings of work. He’s settled down recently and is 2-1 overall. Both of those wins have come in his last two starts, each registering as a quality outing.
In Tanaka’s most recent outing, he went seven innings, allowing just a single run. Of course, that was against a rebuilding White Sox team that did still managed six hits and a couple walks.
As for Sale, his first month in a Red Sox’s uniform couldn’t have gone any better. He’s leading the league in both innings pitched and strikeouts. He’s already tossed 29.2 innings in four starts and sat down a staggering 42 batters on strikes.
Overall, he’s given up just three runs, all earned, on 15 hits and six walks, surrendering just a single home run.
The former White Sox has always fared well against the Yankees. In 10 career games, seven of them starts, Sale is 4-1 with a 1.17 ERA and 0.820 WHIP in 53.2 innings.
Meanwhile, Tanaka’s history is a bit spottier against the Sox. He’s had some strong performances and is 5-2 overall in 10 starts, but his ERA is a bit inflated at 4.05 though his WHIP is a very respectable 1.117.
LIVE BETTING
We have two aces on the mound and a couple of bullpens that’ve been able to do their jobs about as well as anyone to date.
While the Yankees have been able to score as well as anyone in the league this season and the Sox are stacked with offensive talent, one can still expect this to be a rather low scoring affair where any little mistake could mean the difference between a win and a loss.
With that in mind, it’s probably helpful to note that the Yankees have just seven errors compared to 11 for the Red Sox.
QUICK PICK
The Sox are the better team and while both starters are good, Sale has been completely lights out so far.
The Yankees’ team is too reliant on a few young guys who could be overexposed against Sale. Romine, Bird, Ronald Torreyes and Aaron Judge can all be exploited. Sure, Matt Holliday is a professional hitter, but is that really enough?
Meanwhile, Tanaka hasn’t exactly dominated the Sox in his 10 previous starts against him.
Look for Boston to break through for a couple runs against Tanaka and count on that to stand up in a low scoring game.
MLB Odds: Red Sox 4, Yankees 2
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