MLB Odds - New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox Game Preview

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It seems fitting that the first ESPN Sunday Night Baseball game of the second half would feature the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees as the AL East is relevant again. Of course, both teams do make it on the national airwaves frequently so it makes sense that this series would get the nod by ESPN as these two teams wrap up an expanded four-game series and close out a day-night doubleheader.

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ODDS ANALYSIS

In the first five games in the season series between these hated rivals, the Yankees have dominated, winning four of five and outscoring the Red Sox 27-7. That was then and this is now.

Since their last meeting, the Yankees have gone into a tailspin and the Sox have surged, mounting a respectable division lead heading into the second half.

Some of what’s helped Boston surge and caused New York’s slide has been the bullpen. There’s no question that after the starters leave the game, the Sox have the advantage.

Yes, New York is strong in the eighth and ninth inning with Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances, but before that, there are significant question marks. Even Betances is anything but a sure thing right now. He looked good in the All-Star game so that may help him get right, but control has been his issues and the All-Star game is not a time for hitters to show patience.

With or without Betances on his game, the Sox are still deeper in the pen. Only the Indians have had a better bullpen in the AL in the first half.

Craig Kimbrel has been the best reliever in the game by most measures. He’s been nearly unhittable. He’s allowed 14 hits and five walks in 37.2 innings. That’s a 0.504 WHIP, giving him a 0.78 FIP. With 68 strikeouts, he also has a 13.6 strikeout to walk ratio.

PROBABLE PITCHERS

David Price gets the second leg of this double header for the Red Sox. The Boston southpaw has looked much better in his last few starts after a slow return from the DL earlier in the year.

All told, Price is 4-2 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.264 WHIP in nine starts. He’s thrown 53 innings after missing the first two months of the season.

The lefty has had an up-and-down start to his Red Sox career with a respectable, although non-Price-like season last year in his first year in Beantown. Since coming off the DL, he’s already had a run-in with the Boston media and there’s some tension there.

Despite that, Price has strung together four straight quality starts and has allowed two combined runs in his last 12 innings of work, striking out 14 in that time and walked four.

While there’s certainly optimism around the Sox about the direction Price is headed, he’s yet to truly dominate as a member of the Red Sox. Of course, with the offense Boston has and the strong bullpen, domination really isn’t needed to get the win.

What is needed, however, is a better performance than he’s shown against the Yankees since he joined the Boston rotation. In his first year and a half with the team, he’s faced New York six times, going 1-4 with an inflated 8.31 ERA.

The Yankees haven’t announced their rotation coming out of the break yet so it’s hard to know who Price will face in primetime. Luis Severino wasn’t used in the All-Star game and should start the series opener, but Masahiro Tanaka, C.C. Sabathia and Michael Pineda all figure to get a start in the series.

Of course, Tanaka’s had a tough year so far. He had back-to-back strong performances before his latest blow up. We’ve seen flashes of the old Tanaka, but not nearly enough to count on him turning things around.

As for Sabathia, he’s probably the best of the trio. He’s nothing more than a reliable innings-eater at this point in his career, but he’s more dependable than Pineda who has the better stuff, but has struggled after a hot start.

LIVE BETTING

It seems like a down year for the Sox on offense, but outside of catcher and third base, Boston has gotten above-average contributions from every position. In some cases, they’ve gotten well above-average contributions.

Mitch Moreland had a huge first half and has provided great defense on top of his offense. Hanley Ramirez is just now heating up and the Killer-Bs in the outfield are all having fine years.

For the Yankees, their offense has been better overall, but injuries are a factor. They expect to get a few players back before this game, however, including Starlin Castro who was named as an All-Star and Matt Holliday who has been a huge veteran presence.

We saw Aaron Judge steal the show in the home run derby showing no signs of slowing down while Gary Sanchez made his mark as well with an upset over Gary Sanchez.

Price has been known to allow the home run ball from time to time as one of his flaws throughout his career has been a tendency to be in the zone a bit too much, leading to his low walk totals and high strikeout numbers as well.

Both of these teams have fun, young players to watch and either could go off if the pitching misses its spots.

QUICK PICK

The Sox are at home and will have the Fenway Faithful behind them. They’ve trending in the right direction and will be out for revenge.

The double header makes this one a hard one to pick as it’s very hard to win both sides of a double-header and the bullpen usage in the first game could make a huge difference, but for now, take the Sox.

Boston is a complete team—save for third base—on offense right now and they have the edge on the mound both at the beginning of the game and in the back end.

MLB Odds: Red Sox 6, Yankees 4

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