Nearly two weeks into the regular season and we finally have our first series of the vaunted New York Yankees versus Boston Red Sox rivalry. The gold mine of the national baseball coverage, all three games of this series will be broadcast nationally with the fans getting its first real look at what many believe to be the most hotly contested divisional race. The series, of course, brings excellent pitching matchups with Chris Sales and David Price both on the docket for Boston and Luis Severino and Masahiro Tanaka on deck for the Yanks.
This rivalry series between the Yankees and Red Sox is scheduled for Tuesday, April 10, 2018 through Thursday, April 12, 2018 with each game beginning at 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. The first games of this series will be broadcast nationally on ESPN with the second two on MLB Network.
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Odds Analysis
The Red Sox, throughout the history of the game, have been the losers head-to-head against a Yankees’ team that’s been, traditionally, just a bit better.
Of course, recent history has given the Sox more World Series championships over the last decade and a half and its fair share of successes over the Evil Empire. Last year could be one such example as Boston won the AL East over New York, though the Yankees took 11 of 19 meetings head-to-head, outscoring Boston by 23 total runs in those 19 games. New York also made it to the ALCS while Boston went home after an ALDS loss. Both, however, fell at the hands of the Astros.
On paper, Boston appears to have the edge in the rotation and boasts better contact hitters while New York has the advantage in the power department and in the bullpen.
Of course, paper only helps so much. The Yankees’ pen has, surprisingly, been hittable early while the Boston offense has raked with the exception of a few slow starters.
Probable Pitchers
The series opens with the premium pitching matchup on Tuesday as Chris Sale and Luis Severino, the two team aces, go head-to-head.
The two finished second and third in the AL Cy Young Award race, respectively, in 2017 and both have gotten off to strong starts in 2018.
Sale, of course, has a longer track record of success. His 17-8 record and 2.90 ERA last year in his 32 starts was par for the course. Save for struggles against the Indians, the veteran southpaw would have run away with the Cy Young trophy. Instead, he was runner up; his fifth straight top-5 finish.
In his nine-year career, Sale has posted a .611 winning percentage, with most of his career coming with below average Chicago White Sox club. He’s also got a career 2.97 ERA, showing his 2017 numbers were far from a fluke.
So far in 2018, he’s thrown 11 innings over two starts, allowing just one runs on six hits and three walks. He’s struck out 15.
Severino, meanwhile, is already 2-0 on the young season with a 1.38 ERA in his 13 innings of work. He’s pitched just as well as Sale after keeping pace with him in 2017, going 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA.
Over his career, Severino is just 2-4 with a 4.32 ERA against the Sox. Sale is 4-4 against the Yankees, but his ERA is 1.81. Of course, that was with a far less righty dominant lineup
In the second game of the series, Tanaka and Price matchup. While Severino and Sale were dominant starters last year, Tanaka and Price are aces in their own right.
Tanaka struggled in 2017, particularly early on, but came up big in the postseason. He’s been solid in his first two outings of 2018, allowing four runs on nine hits in 12.1 innings. As importantly, he’s not allowed a single walk while striking out 15. He has, however, already allowed two homers.
As for Price, he’s looking much better after injuries and other struggles plagued him his first two seasons in Boston. Looking more like the dominant lefty that started his career in Tampa Bay, Price has yet to allow a run in 14 innings, allowing just seven hits and three walks in the process.
Of course, those stellar numbers have come in two series against his former team, the Rays. Tampa Bay does not have a good offense so Price will get a much harder test against New York, a team that’s caused him trouble, to a tune of a 4.36 career ERA. He has beaten them 15 times, however.
As for the series finale, the starter for the Yankees is still unofficial after C.C. Sabathia went on the disabled list. Luis Cessa was called up to replace Sabathia on the roster and could make the start. He’s been the team’s swing man the last couple years with marginal results.
The Sox have a more established arm for Thursday in Rick Porcello. Porcello was bad for Boston in 2015, a Cy Young Award winner in 2016 and bad again in 2017. He’s off to a good start to 2018 with a couple wins and excellent strikeout to walk ratio. He’s throwing the ball well—just like the rest of the rotation—coming into this series and has a good track record against the Bronx Bombers.
Live Betting
The Red Sox rotation has been dynamic in the early going and they have their best lined up against the Yankees in this series, but can the offense and bullpen hold up?
New York’s vaunted bullpen has Domingo German and Adam Warren allowed runs in the team’s second extra-inning loss to the Orioles over the weekend. Dellin Betances has already allowed a pair of homers while David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle have each already allowed a long ball.
Craig Kimbrel has yet to be scored upon for the Boston. He’s lights out in the ninth, getting to him from the starters could be a challenge, though the starters are pitching so well, the bridge need not be too many innings.
At the plate, the Yankees have baseball’s leading home run hitters from last year, but it’s Didi Gregorius who—alongside Giancarlo Stanton—leads the team in long balls and RBIs. Stanton has shown power, but has already been booed on a couple of occasions by the Yankee faithful while injuries are forcing players like Tyler Wade, Tyler Austin, Miguel Andujar and Jace Peterson into the lineup.
With the injuries, the Red Sox’s lineup is deeper even with the early struggles of Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Christian Vazquez. Hanley Ramirez is swinging the bat well as is Xander Bogaerts, both bouncing back nicely from down 2017 seasons.
MLB Pick
The Yankees have shown flashes of the dominant offense that was the story of the offseason, but the Red Sox have been far more consistent in the early going.
With so many New York players sidelined with injuries, the strength of this team has been compromised. On top of that, the vaunted bullpen has yet to really produce the dominant outings expected.
For now, the Red Sox’s rotation is dealing and that’s enough to take the Sox to win the series at home over the Yankees. New York may be the favorite to win the AL East, but the Sox are the smart pick to take the series.
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