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BookMaker is the only online sportsbook where you can get the earliest MLB moneylines, runlines, totals and props. If you want to wager on baseball odds like the pros do, you need to join BookMaker today! The ballgame between the New York Yankees and Chicago Cubs will take place Sunday, May 7, 2017, at 8:05 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field. The matchup can be seen live on ESPN.
The New York Yankees are playing great baseball right now, but the Chicago Cubs provide a unique challenge for this team. The Cubbies are stacked and while the World Series hangover impacted the team for a bit, they’re back to their winning ways now, making this one of the weekend’s most interesting series, wrapped up with a primetime game on national television.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
It looked like Javier Baez broke out on Tuesday going 4-for-4 and slamming his second home run in as many games.
Since that time, he’s 1-for-8 and went 0-for-5 on Thursday so he’s still a work in progress, but at least the bat showed signs of life.
He’s a good microcosm of this team in general: slow out of the game, but starting to show signs of life. The numbers up and down the lineup for Anthony Rizzo and company don’t stack up to what you’d expect, but they’re starting to get closer.
For the Yankees, it’s just all about Aaron Judge right now. It seems like every day is Judgement Day as he’s already slammed 13 bombs. He’s hitting .330 with 27 RBIs and is carrying this team, but he is not alone. Outside of the first base position where Chris Carter certainly has power to be a big threat, the rest of this everyday lineup has put up above league average production to this point in the season.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
This game will feature the veteran arm of Jon Lester against the Yankees’ young gun in Luis Severino.
Lester, obviously, has plenty of experience against the Bronx Bombers given his time in Boston.
In 29 career starts against New York, Lester is 13-6 with a 3.78 ERA and inflated 1.420 WHIP in 174 innings.
Those numbers aren’t bad, but Lester has taken is pitching to another level in Chicago, pitching to a 2.95 ERA. So far in 2017, he’s 1-1 with a 3.67 ERA and 1.485 WHIP in six starts. He’s been giving up plenty of base runners and has his walk rate higher than it’s been since 2007.
Despite that, Lester is still a veteran hurler who knows how to get outs. He got his first win in his last start despite struggling through five innings. He threw 106 pitches in that fight, but managed to keep the Cubbies in the game enough to allow the offense to do the rest.
As for Severino, he had been pitching brilliantly before his last start. After, his numbers still look strong as he’s 2-2 with a 3.86 ERA and 0.949 WHIP. His last start, however, resulted in five runs in five and two-thirds innings. The main question is: which Severino is the real Severino?
The answer, of course, is both. He’s a young hurler so he’s going to be unpredictable, particularly compared to Lester, but he does have the stuff to pitch a dominating game on any given day, though doing so against the Cubs’ lineup may be a different story.
LIVE BETTING
Look for the team to get out to the early lead to be able to carry it to the end, particularly once Severino is out and the bullpens are involved.
The Yankees’ bullpen has the fourth best ERA of any unit in baseball at 2.52 and the Cubs are fifth at 2.81. Both units have been very strong, particularly at the end of the game.
Of course, the Cubs are very familiar with Aroldis Chapman form their half of a season with him as their closer. That could give them a bit of an edge, but you can only have so much of an edge when facing a 103-mph heater.
Before Chapman, Tyler Clippard and Dellin Betances have been equally as effective, basically shortening this to a six run game if Severino can hold Chicago at bay.
The Cubs, on the other hand, have replaced Chapman admirably. Wade Davis and Carl Edwards Jr. are the new one-two punch to close out the game with the Cubs and in a combined 26.1 innings of work, the two combined have allowed just a single run.
When you consider depth of the unit, the Cubs may actually have the advantage over the Yankees. They also add Hector Rondon and Koji Uehara to the list as both have thrived in set-up roles this year.
Lastly, after a couple early season snafus, Mike Montgomery is back to embarrassing the role as a lefty out of the pen and he’s given up just three earned in 18 innings this year.
QUICK PICK
The Yankees are smacking the ball around the park and have the benefit of a team offense that is red hot, but the Cubs offense is stacked and some of the struggling players are showing signs of snapping out of their woes.
That may make the offense a wash and the bullpen may be a wash, too. Defense could favor the Cubs, but the Yankees aren’t too shabby in that regard either.
So, this game comes down to the starters and Lester is just plain old more reliable. Look for Lester to have a lead over Severino and the Yankees threw six and with these bullpens, that’s enough for the “W”.
MLB Odds: Cubs 5, Yankees 4
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