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Through the first four games of this series, the home team has been triumphant. Will that trend remain and push the Cleveland Indians into the ALCS for the second straight season or can the New York Yankees complete an unlikely upset, coming back from a 2-0 deficit to take the series against the World Series favorite? New York is on a roll, but the Indians have Corey Kluber and their home turf on its side.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Yankees have the momentum, but home field advantage has meant quite a lot in the postseason so far. That advantage goes to Cleveland.
Interestingly, the Indians were a better road team than home team in the regular season. The Tribe still posted a .605 home winning percentage. The venue may be a bigger deal for the Yanks than the Indians. New York was under-.500 on the road in 2017.
Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez can hit the ball out of any park, but the short porch out to right-field has certainly helped other Yankee players. New York led baseball in home runs. As such, they are benefitted by the friendly dimensions that Yankee Stadium offers hitters.
Progressive Field isn’t a pitchers’ haven itself, but it may be just a bit friendlier to a less homer-centric club.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
The chance to pitch in Game 5 is exactly why Corey Kluber starter Game 2 instead of Game 1. Klubot is more comfortable pitching on four day’s rest. He got an extra day heading into Game 2 and struggled. He pitched his best this year on normal rest. The Cy Young hopeful will have just that on Wednesday.
Even with a rough Game 2 appearance, the Yankees won’t look forward to a rematch with Kluber. The veteran right-hander is, arguably, the best pitcher in the American League. He missed a couple starts due to injury, but still managed to go 18-4 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.869 WHIP. He tossed 203.2 innings in just 29 starts and led the league in wins, ERA, shutouts, ERA+, WHIP and strikeout to walk ratio. Based solely on that data, Kluber gives his team the advantage on the mound against any other opponent.
The Yankees haven’t revealed their plan for Game 5, but we could see a rematch of Game 2 with C.C. Sabathia getting the ball. Sonny Gray would be the other option.
In Game 2, Kluber didn’t make it through three innings, giving up six runs on seven hits—including a pair of homers. Sabathia did better. He allowed four runs—two earned—in 5.1 innings of work. In both cases, the showdown was decided by the bullpen as the game went 13 frames with the Tribe winning.
Kluber should bounce back with a good outing. He’s not overwhelmed by the situation as we saw in last year’s postseason and is the better pitcher. Kluber is also more prone to go deeper in the game though with Game 5 being do-or-die for both teams, Joe Girardi and Terry Francona will both have shorter-than-normal leashes, particularly considering the quality in both pens.
While Kluber is the better pitcher, there is still a path to victory for Sabathia. The veteran southpaw may no longer be an ace, but he’s still a winner. He went 14-5 in 27 regular season starts, pitching to a 3.69 ERA.
The former Indian pitched well in Cleveland and is comfortable in The Rock and Roll Capital of the World. And, what a story it would be if he came through with the win on the road, over the Indians and Corey Kluber?
LIVE BETTING
It’s hard to quantify just how much the loss of Edwin Encarnacion has hurt the Indians this series, but it’s clear that the lineup is weaker without him.
Jay Bruce struck out four times in the cleanup spot in his absence in Game 3. Meanwhile, Jose Ramirez led the offense in the regular season, but has struggled here in the first four games of this series. The Yankees haven’t given him anything to hit, keeping the ball out of the heart of the zone and throwing him less than half the number of fastballs he saw in the regular campaign. The game plan on Ramirez has worked and figures to continue in Game 5.
There are certainly reasons to be worried if you’re backing the Indians, but there’s concern for New York, too. They were overmatched in the first two games in Cleveland and are effectively without Dellin Betances whose command issues have carried over to the postseason.
QUICK PICK
The Indians are 4-17 dating back to 1997 with a chance to clinch a series and have lost five consecutive such games after being up 2-0 in this series after they were unable to put away the World Series a season ago.
Those are far from favorable trends for the Indians, but this is as complete a team as the Indians have had since that 1997 season. Cleveland has the league’s best starter on the mound, at home, with a deep lineup behind him and a bullpen that’s well rested after an off day. Francona did well limiting the exposure of any one reliever despite the short outing from Trevor Bauer in Game 4. The whole pen got some action save Andrew Miller.
New York has the power advantage, but otherwise, the Indians can matchup—or beat—the Yankees in every other facet of the game. The loss of Encarnacion makes this closer, but take the Indians at home against a Yankee’s team that’s been nothing more than average on the road.
MLB Odds: Indians 4, Yankees 3
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