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If you’re not wagering with BookMaker Sportsbook then you’re just another square bettor. Shop for MLB lines where the pros do so register for your own betting account at BookMaker now! The seventh game of the ALCS pitting the New York Yankees versus the Houston Astros will commence Saturday, October 21, 2017, at 8 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park. The contest will be televised nationally on FS1.
It’s hard to find anything more exciting than a Game 7 in baseball and that’s what we have on Saturday as the Houston Astros host the New York Yankees. This series has been a great one and we have one more game. Can the Yankees be the first team to capture a road win in this series or with Houston find a way to get its beleaguered pitching staff through nine more frames against the Yankees?
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ODDS ANALYSIS
New York has been great in must-win games this postseason. They won three in a row to clinch the ALDS against Cleveland and then took three straight in New York in this series after falling behind 0-2.
That’s all great, but most of New York’s wins have come at home. In fact, the Yankees have yet to lose a home game in the playoffs. They’re only 1-5 on the road and this game will be played in Houston.
The Astros will also come into Game 7 with momentum. There’s concern around their pitching situation, but Houston’s offense finally woke up while also getting to the Yankees’ seemingly lockdown bullpen.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
While the Astros have the home field advantage in Game 7, the edge on the mound certainly goes to the Yankees.
New York is starting C.C. Sabathia on Saturday and the Astros have yet to announce their starter.
Sabathia went six scoreless innings against Houston earlier in this series and was the starter for the Yankees’ ALDS clinching Game 5 in Cleveland, their only road win of the playoffs.
Sabathia isn’t the dynamic ace as he once was. His stuff as diminished and others like Luis Severino have seemingly passed him in the pecking order, particularly in comparison to regular season stats.
That’s all fine and well, but the big southpaw still knows what it takes to win the big game. He’s reinvented himself here in the second half of his career and was a strong pitcher in 2017 going 14-5 with a 3.69 ERA. He knows how to win.
Sabathia is a postseason veteran, too. He knows what it’s like to pitch on the biggest stage and doesn’t get rattled by it. We saw just that in Game 3. He walked away with the victory after six shutout innings.
Pitching opposite of Sabathia in Game 3 was Charlie Morton who struggled mightily in the game. Colin McHugh relieved him and threw four scoreless, but it was too little, too late at that point.
Either one of those pitchers could get the start. Lance McCullers Jr. could also factor in after throwing well in Game 4 before the bullpen blew the game late. A.J. Hinch almost certainly will need all the arms he can get to get through nine frames. It’s a much direr pitching situation for Houston than for New York, particularly with concerns around the bullpen.
LIVE BETTING
Positionally, the Yankees and Astros are evenly matched. On the mound, the Yankees have the clear edge for Game 7.
For Houston, there’s a clear rotational drop-off after Verlander and Keuchel and without the bullpen to bail the team out, the Yankees are the better bet to make their pitches.
David Robertson’s poor outing in Game 6 and Chad Greene’s heavy usage does limit the options for Joe Girardi out of the pen, but there are still plenty of good arms to choose from including Tommy Kahnle, Aroldis Chapman and Adam Warren to name a few.
At the plate, the Yankees only had a single run in Game 6, but it came off the bat of Aaron Judge. Judge was missing everything early in the postseason, he’s looked much better lately and when he is going well, the Yankees are typically going well, too.
On the other side, the Astros’ hitters scored seven runs on Friday after nine in the first five games. That’s a positive sign for Houston’s offense, especially when a number of those runs came off the bullpen.
There, however, is still an issue. Most of that production came from Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa—along with Brian McCann in the ninth spot. The top two spots in the order—George Springer and Josh Reddick—remained hitless, limiting Houston’s ability to play small ball if Sabathia and company are making it difficult to collect the extra-base hits.
QUICK PICK
On offense, these teams are neck-and-neck. Houston was first in baseball in runs scored, but New York was second.
The Yankees have shown more offense this series. Sure, the Astros’ bats woke up on Friday night, but can they be expected to replicate that offensive success?
In the end, while the Astros have home field advantage and the Yankees have only one road win all postseason, New York has a clear pitching advantage in Game 7. The Astros bullpen has been beaten by the Yankees and the options to start the game are questionable at best.
This should be a close game. The offenses are balanced, but the pitching—particularly in the bullpen—makes the difference.
MLB Odds: Yankees 6, Astros 4
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