MLB Odds - New York Yankees at Houston Astros Game Preview

The New York Yankees just took their first series lead of the postseason on Wednesday, winning Game 5 and sending the series back to Houston with a 3-2 lead. After falling 0-2 to the Indians in the ALDS, New York bounced back to win three-straight and capture the series. They’ve done the same so far in the ALCS. The Bronx Bombers need just one more win to get back to the World Series, but the Houston Astros stand in their way, returning home.

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ODDS ANALYSIS

The Yankees are a different team at home than on the road. They’re undefeated at home in the postseason, going 5-0, but they’ve gone just 1-4 on the road. Granted, that one win was in Cleveland where they clinched their ALDS series victory.

If you’re looking for a larger sample size, you can look back to the regular season where this same Yankees’ team was a game under-.500 on the road, but one of the best home teams in baseball.

Houston was a better road team than home team in the regular season, but couldn’t contain the Yankees in the Bronx. The home team has won each game of this series to date so the Astros will do their best to see that trend continues.

Houston’s 4-0 at home this postseason, but their offense—which led baseball in runs—has gone quiet all series and the bullpen has been a significant question mark, calling into question the validity of these trends.

PROBABLE PITCHERS

We have a rematch of Game 2 as the series shifts back to Houston.

Justin Verlander is on the mound for the Astros after a complete game performance in his first start of the ALCS. The veteran right-hander has been nearly unhittable since his trade from the Tigers in the final seconds of August.

Verlander made only five regular-season start for Houston, going 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA and he carried that into the postseason. The trade to the Astros certainly helped him kick things into a second gear, but the righty has been throwing well for a while now. His string of two runs or fewer in a start goes back as far as August 20.

So far this postseason, Verlander is pitching to a 2.04 ERA in his 17.2 innings of work, allowing four runs on 12 hits. He was particularly filthy in Game 2, holding the Yankees to a single run on five hits, striking out 13 in his complete game performance.

Verlander is a proven postseason force. He’s 10-5 with a 3.18 ERA in 19 postseason games with a 1.069 WHIP against the best of the best in October.

As for his history against the Yankees, Verlander is just 6-7 in 18 regular season games, but has a respectable 3.87 ERA against the Bronx Bombers. In the postseason, he’s faced New York in four separate series going 3-0 with a 2.87 ERA in 31.2 innings.

There’s a lot less postseason data to evaluate for the Yankees starter. They’re turning to their young right-hander Luis Severino.

Severino had a monster season after shuffling between the bullpen and the rotation in a difficult 2016. In 2017, Severino undoubtedly garnered Cy Young votes. He went 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA.

Given he’s already pitched more this year than at any other point in his professional career, there were concerns heading into October that he may struggle given fatigue and the added pressure of the postseason.

He couldn’t even get out of the first in the Wild Card game. That was a bad sign, but he’s since bounced back nicely.

In two postseason starts since—one in the ALDS and one in the ALCS—he’s allowed four runs in 11 innings. He went only four in Game 2 against Houston, but allowed only a single run on a solo homer before the bullpen took over.

LIVE BETTING

On the mound and at the plate, the Yankees have looked like the better team. Houston edged out a couple wins in the first two games, winning both 2-1. The wins hid the fact the offense wasn’t doing much.

Dallas Keuchel and Justin Verlander almost single-handedly won those two games, keeping the bullpen use to a minimum and the offenses’ inability to score more than two runs a game inconsequential.

When the Astros turned to Charlie Morton and Lance McCullers Jr., the bullpen took on a bigger role and struggled. With that, the offensive woes became magnified.

Houston has a great offense. They led baseball in runs. Jose Altuve is an MVP candidate, alongside the Yankee’s own Aaron Judge. Carlos Correa, George Springer, Alex Bregman are just a few top-tier names littering this lineup. Unfortunately, to this point all have been quieted. Of course, with such a stacked lineup, the unit could break out at any moment.

That’s exactly what happened for the Yankees. New York’s offense started to hit in Game 3 and have been getting better. Judge and Gary Sanchez were lost early in the series. They’re hitting better now.

New York’s lineup is nearly as good as Houston’s when it’s on with more power, but a few more strikeouts, too. Right now, however, the Yankees’ offense has started to click, the Astros’ is still sputtering.

When we turn our attention to the bullpens, the two haven’t even been comparable. The Yankees’ pen is one of the best in baseball. The additions of Tommy Kahnle and David Robertson were instrumental to this team. Dellin Betances cannot find the strike zone, but with the options at Joe Girardi’s disposal, it doesn’t even matter. The until will be well rested on Friday, too. Only Kahnle got into Wednesday’s game.

QUICK PICK

The Yankees have the better pen and are hitting better right now, but Houston’s bullpen options aren’t like the Detroit Tigers of the last decade. Chris Devenski, Joe Musgrove and Ken Giles have all struggled, but they’ve each got electric stuff. They also shouldn’t need much from the pen in Game 6.

With Verlander on the mound and the Astros back at home, Houston lives to play another game, pushing this series to a decisive Game 7.

Look for Verlander to throw this team on his shoulders like he did in Game 2. The offense may not be clicking, but Jose Altuve is a hitting machine. The rest of the order cannot stay down too long. Much like the return to Yankee Stadium helped spark the Yankees’ offense, the return to Minute Maid Park and elimination being on the line should be enough to spark something.

MLB Odds: Astros 4, Yankees 2

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