It seems like only a few weeks ago both the Yankees and Royals were left for dead, but each team has made a strong push of late—one led by a rookie catcher and the other veterans returning from injury—to get back into the postseason hunt.
Tuesday marks the second game in an important series for each team.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Kansas City has been an entirely different team this year at home than on the road, going 40-21 at home heading into Sunday compared to a road mark of 27-41.
The fact this game is at Kauffman Stadium is automatically a huge difference maker, though the Royals have played quite well home or away over its last 20 games, winning 16 of them.
The Yankees have also been playing better baseball of late as both teams sit neck-and-neck both just a few games back of the second AL wildcard spot.
New York has been a revitalized team since the promotion of Gary Sanchez who’s had a historically strong start. Since August began, the Yankees have gone 15-10. They’ve also won three straight road series, including against a very strong Red Sox team.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
The Royals may be surging, but their pitcher on Tuesday is not. Edinson Volquez is scheduled to take the hill. The 33-year old had back-to-back strong seasons the last two years, but has had control issues his entire career.
Here in 2016, the righty is just 10-10 with a 4.88 ERA and 1.433 WHIP. That WHIP is elevated a bit by a higher than average walk rate, but his control issues have manifested themselves just as much in the strike zone as out of it as the opposition has a .275 average against him, twenty points higher than his career mark.
Volquez is a better pitcher at home than on the road so that helps, but he’s got a 4.96 ERA in the second half and an even worse 5.81 ERA since the beginning of August.
Meanwhile, the Yankees will turn to their ace Masahiro Tanaka who is pitching really well of late.
Over Tanaka’s last four starts, he’s allowed just five runs in 27 2/3 innings, including his most recent start where he held the Mariners scoreless over seven innings. Prior to that, he held the Angels scoreless in seven and two-thirds innings.
Overall, Tanaka has won his last four starts and the Yankees have won 11 of the last 13 games he’s pitched.
Over the course of the entire year, he’s 11-4 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in 26 starts as he’s been far more consistent than his opposition on Tuesday night.
LIVE BETTING
The Yankees were shut out on Sunday, but Gary Sanchez—who served as the Yankees’ designated hitter in the game to keep his bat in the lineup—still went 2-for-4, increasing his average to .405 and ending with a 1.361 OPS.
Sanchez has had an absolutely historic start to his major league career with 11 home runs and 21 RBIs. That was the most of any player in his first 21 games since the RBI became an official stat.
With Sanchez providing a spark, the Yankees have gone from one of the league’s worst offenses to one of the best. The order looked old and slow through the season’s first four months, but here in August, New York has outscored every other American League team—at least heading into Sunday with 133 runs.
On the other side, the Royals’ success has been more a result of the pitching than the offense.
Nevertheless, adding Lorenzo Cain and Alex Gordon back into the lineup on a regular basis has been a big boost. The middle infield is still a weakness at the plate with Alcides Escobar getting on base less than 30-percent of the time and Raul Mondesi still adjusting to the big leagues, but otherwise, the team has a solid offensive contributor at each position.
QUICK PICK
This should be a great game with both teams fighting to stay in the wildcard hunt. The Yankees are sending their ace to the mound while the Royals will host New York at home where they’re one of the best teams in baseball.
The starting matchup clearly favors the Yankees, but the Royals have the bullpen advantage.
With this game at Kauffman, bank on the Royals getting the win, but don’t look for a wide spread with the Yankees likely to get an early lead, but the Kansas City bullpen ultimately being the difference maker.
MLB Odds: Royals 5, Yankees 4
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