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This season’s home run leader meets the leader in career home runs amongst active players as the New York Yankees and Aaron Judge journey west to take on the Los Angeles Angels and Albert Pujols. Wednesday’s game will be the series finale as the Angels will be looking to steal another series after being the Astros over the weekend, but the Yankees are rolling.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Yankees are 14-games over .500 and underperforming compared to their run differential. They’ve scored 353 runs, giving up only 238.
New York’s offense is scorching hot. Heading into the Angels’ series, they’ve scored at least eight runs in five straight games and put up 38-runs in a three game series against the Orioles.
On the other side, the Angels have scored nine or more in three of their last four games. The one exception, however, was a 3-1 loss against the Astros with Mike Fiers shutting them down.
Overall, the Yankees have now surprised the Astros—whom the Angels were able to keep in check—in runs scored. They’re first in baseball in runs while the Angels rank No. 17.
It is actually quite amazing that the Angels’ offense has been so good without Mike Trout on the field.
Pujols joining the 600 home run club has sparked him and the team some. The return of Cameron Maybin has helped as well.
Still, the Yankees’ have a much more fearsome order. Judge is hitting .344 with 21 bombs, 24 extra base hits, a 1.168 OPS and 47 RBIs. Starlin Castro and Matt Holliday have each driven in at least 41 runs, too.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
The Yankees went with a bullpen game on Sunday to push back Masahiro Tanaka a day to help him get back on track. That pushed back the entire rotation and, as a result, Michael Pineda gets the ball on Wednesday. Right-hander Matt Shoemaker will start for the Angels.
Michael Pineda came out with a couple really strong performances in April. He’s shown flashes before, but has been one of the more perplexing pitchers in the game. This year, he’s been far more consistent.
Overall, Pineda is 7-3 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.130 WHIP. He’s made six quality starts in his last seven games. During that time, he’s 4-2 with a 3.56 ERA.
Command and control have been allusive for Pineda in his career, but he’s still striking out more than a batter per inning, but his walk rate is down, leading to a 4.41 strikeout to walk ratio.
Pineda has faced the Angels twice in his career without much success, going 1-1 with 10 runs allowed in 12 innings, including three home runs.
Shoemaker is one of the Angels’ more consistent arms. He’s 6-3 with a 4.22 ERA which puts him right around league average. He’s walking more and striking out less than Pineda.
The 30-year old veteran is 0-2 against the Yankees with a 4.05 ERA and three homers allowed in 13.1 innings.
LIVE BETTING
The Yankees’ bullpen took a hit on Sunday, pitching a bullpen game, but the unit was well rested going in and will have some time to recuperate.
Dellin Betances is thriving in the closer’s role while Aroldis Chapman has been out. Tyler Clippard has adequately filled in as the setup man. From there, Chad Green, Adam Warren, Jonathan Holder and Chasen Shreve are all pitching well.
For now, Shreve is the only southpaw in the pen and he’s not been used in a match up role, instead throwing a full inning at a time.
Tommy Layne did fill the LOOGY role, but was recently dropped off the roster. Joe Girardi trusts his right-handers against lefty bats and will need guys like Holder, Green and Clippard to get both lefties and righties out.
The Angels’ bullpen has been surprisingly good, too. The Yankees have the edge, but Bud Norris has come out of nowhere to have a good year in the closer role.
QUICK PICK
The Yankees have the best offense and the third best bullpen in baseball. On the mound, Pineda has had a better season than Shoemaker and has been throwing the ball really well.
Sure, the Angels are playing good baseball. They beat the Astros in two of three games and Houston has the best record in the sport. Nevertheless, the Yankees should win on Wednesday.
The Angels’ offense cannot sustain their recent run. We saw a not-so-great pitcher nearly shut them down a couple days ago and Pineda’s had a much better year than Fiers. Without Trout, the Angels don’t have any stars to lean on. Pujols isn’t the player he once was while Judge has been even hotter than Gary Sanchez was at the end of last year. Speaking of Sanchez, he’s swinging a hot bat right now himself.
MLB Odds: Yankees 8, Angels 4
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