Both these teams will have a veteran on the mound in the middle game of a three game series on Tuesday as they each look to continue an unlikely run since the beginning of August.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
If was a rough start to the year for both Seattle and New York, but each team has now worked their way to—or at least near—a positive total moneyline with strong play here in the month of August.
Both the Mariners and the Yankees are somewhat of surprises in that regard as each were counted out of contention earlier this year. Now, they’ve each worked their way back at least into the fringes of the postseason conversation.
After losses for both team on Sunday, the Mariners are now 14—6 while the Yankees are 11-8 this month.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
C.C. Sabathia will get yet another chance to get back on track for the Yankees on Tuesday.
The beleaguered lefthander has had a tail of two seasons. He was last an All-Star in 202 and has had an ERA of 4.73 or above each of the last three years. He looked to be on pace to get back to an All-Star game through his first 11 games, pitching to a 2.20 ERA in that time and going 5-4 in those games.
Since that time, however, the wheels have fallen off for the lefty as he’s just 2-6 with a bloated 6.78 ERA.
In his last start, he allowed seven runs in six innings against the Blue Jays though he did notch 12 strikeouts. He still has the ability to induce the swing and miss, but he’s also far more hittable than he was when he was dominating the opposition.
Sabathia has faced the Mariners 25 times in his career and has done well against them so there is hope. He’s 12-6 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in 166 2/3 innings. That’s nearly a full season, though much of that was accumulated when he was a much different pitcher.
In his lone start against Seattle this year, Sabathia lasted just four and two-thirds innings, tossing 95 pitches and allowing three runs on seven hits.
The Mariners’ rotation hasn’t been set for the coming week and is in flux, but Hisashi Iwakuma’s turn in the rotation would be on Tuesday.
Iwakuma is an aging veteran himself, but his downward turn hasn’t been nearly as dramatic. In fact, the 35-year old is 3-1 with a 1.69 ERA in the month of August. Overall, he’s 14-8 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.268 WHIP.
This year, Iwakuma faced the Yankees once, giving up four runs in seven innings. In his career, he’s 2-3 with a 3.65 ERA over 37 innings against the Bronx Bombers.
LIVE BETTING
The bullpen let the Mariners down on Sunday. Tom Wilhelmsen and Vidal Nuno had been instrumental to the team’s success, both pitching well in set up roles, but each fell apart.
It’ll be important to keep an eye on how the pen looks on Monday before banking too heavily on the Mariners on Tuesday. Still, this is an above average bullpen overall, ranked in the top-10 in all of baseball heading into Sunday’s meltdown.
While Wilhelmsen and Nuno let the team down on Sunday, Steve Cischek got in the game and threw a scoreless frame. That’s good news for this pen as they’re now that much deeper with him back and healthy.
As for the Yankees’ pen, it looks a lot different without Andrew Miller or Aroldis Chapman in the backend. While the names aren’t nearly as frightening, the replacements have been just as successful, at least in a small sample size.
New York brought in Adam Warren and Tyler Clippard who’ve filled in admirably in the setup role while Dellin Betances is still a dominant force.
With both bullpens generally very reliable, the offense is another area that could differentiate these teams. Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge have been everything Yankees fans had hoped and more, but it’s been a small sample size overall and the veteran lineup is under performing everyone else.
The Mariners, on the other hand, are a top-10 offense. They’ve got power in the trio of Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager. They’ve also got some speed with Leonys Martin along with table setters in Nori Aoki and Seth Smith.
QUICK PICK
The Yankees have had a good month, but the Mariners are red hot right now, even with their hiccup against the Brewers on Sunday.
When you consider the struggles of Sabathia over his last 11 starts, the fact the Mariners are playing at home and the more consistent and proven offense, the odds are stacked against the Yankees coming away with a win on Tuesday.
Of course, in baseball anything can happen, but Sabathia just doesn’t have enough to stop Cano, Seager and Cruz and while the young Yankees have been very successful in the early going, they don’t have near the track record of the Mariners’ trio.
MLB Odds: Mariners 7, Yankees 4
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