The Yankees and Blue Jays will meet for the second time in less than a week when the AL East rivals pop the top on a three-game set north of the border. The Jays ended New York’s six-game winning streak and took two of three when the clubs met in the Bronx last week.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Yankees and Blue Jays will renew acquaintances after enjoying the weekend away from each other. They’re back at it, this time in Canada, after Toronto took two of three at Yankee Stadium last week, cooling off the pin-stripers, who extended their season-long winning streak to six with a victory in last week’s series opener.
The Jays improved to 15-12 on the road by taking the final two games in New York, concluding a 5-2 trip. But if they want to even think about challenging the front runners in the AL East, they need to perform better in their own park. Toronto enters the weekend just 9-13 at Rogers Centre, down 8.15 units. Playing the Yankees might improve those numbers. The Jays won four of the first six between the clubs to go up 2.86 units on the moneyline.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Ivan Nova (3-2, 3.65 ERA) couldn’t escape the seventh inning on Wednesday, ultimately giving up four earned runs in 6.2 innings in an 8-4 loss to the Blue Jays. Toronto is prone to the strikeout and offensive explosion, and both occurred last week. Nova fanned a season-high eight, but also started Toronto’s four-run seventh inning. It was Nova’s longest outing of the year, but it wasn’t enough.
Nova has moved between the bullpen and the rotation, and has a 2.74 ERA with a 1-1 record in his four starts. He pitched an inning of relief in Toronto on Apr. 13, surrendering four earned on five hits in a 7-2 Jays victory.
Marco Estrada (2-2, 2.76 ERA) won for the first time since his season debut by limiting the Yankees to three runs on four hits over seven innings on Wednesday. He did walk four batters for the fourth time in a game this season and surrendered a pair of home runs, but both were solo shots so the damage was limited
Estrada has surrendered five hits or fewer in seven of his nine starts this year leading to an impressive 1.06 WHIP. He’s allowed more than three earned runs just twice, but the strong numbers have led to just a pair of victories. Estrada and Nova will tangle in a rematch of last Wednesday’s game in Yankee Stadium which the Jays won 8-4.
LIVE BETTING
Toronto’s offense has been struggling for most of the season because their timely hits have been missing in action. A sighting on Thursday may be what the Jays need to start producing more runs to support their solid pitching. On a day when Toronto’s lineup once again had issues putting together a prolonged rally, the Jays found a way to make the most of their opportunities. Two hits with runners in scoring position proved to be the difference in a 3-1 victory over the Yankees.
Producing with runners in scoring position has been Toronto’s biggest issue all year. They Jays entered play Thursday ranked next to last in the AL with a .216 average with runners in scoring position, but they went 2 for 6 when it counted in the Bronx. For a team that’s 4-10 in one-run games, hitting in the clutch is big. “We’ve been missing that for a while,” manager John Gibbons said of hitting with RISP.
QUICK PICK
The Jays have taken two of three in both series against the Yankees this year and we’ll see a replay of starting pitchers from last Wednesday when Toronto won 8-4. Based on that it’s safe to say Toronto has a good chance of winning this game. But as we all know, each game is different. The Yankees may have blown their wad with a six-game winning streak last week that was ended when the Jays visited the Bronx. As good as the Yanks were in that stretch, four of those wins came against the not-so-good Athletics.
And when we look at Estrada’s numbers, it’s hard to imagine the guy has just two wins on the year. The Jays have scored three or fewer runs in seven of his nine starts. And Toronto’s starter has been fabulous at home, sporting a 1.69 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in four starts at Rogers Centre. I can’t picture the Yankees doing enough this time around.
MLB Odds: Toronto 6, New York 2
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