The Houston Astros clinched their ticket to the ALCS on Monday, but had to wait until late in the night on Wednesday to learn who they’d be playing and where Game 1 would take place. The other ALDS was a great one. The New York Yankees and Cleveland Indians went a full five games with Game 5 going down to the wire, but the Yankees came out victorious in a major series upset. They won’t have the same time off as the Astros going into the ALCS, but that could be a good thing. They’ll have momentum and should come out of the gate fast while the Astros may have to work off some rust.
This series will begin on Friday, October 13, 2017 at 8 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park in Houston. The American League Division Series showdown will be televised nationally on FOX.
Bet on MLB odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
Starting Pitching Matchups
Having more time since clinching has allowed the Astros to better set up their rotation for this series. Houston did go to Justin Verlander in Monday night’s series clinching ALDS game. Rather than pushing him on short rest even with that shortened outing, the Astros will look to Dallas Keuchel in Game 1 before turning to Verlander to start Game 2.
Verlander has been lights out for Houston. He went 5-0 in the regular season with a 1.06 ERA after the trade and tossed 8.2 innings in the ALDS, allowing three runs in the process. Interestingly, he only struck out three in the ALDS but still got the job done.
Keuchel hasn’t been as dominate as Verlander, but the southpaw is—like Verlander—a former Cy Young Award winner. Despite injuries, he still ended the season 14-5 with a 2.90. He also threw well against Boston in the ALDS, allowing one run on three hits through 5.2 innings in his Game 2 start.
Regardless of the order, Keuchel and Verlander make a formidable one-two punch that can match up with any team. With them lining up to start the first two games, Houston could get as many as five combined starts out of them in this series depending on how the series goes. That’s huge.
While the dynamic duo will be able to start most of the games in this series—provided it goes the distance, they will need something out of their other arms. Brad Peacock and Charlie Morton got the other starts in the ALDS and figure to factor into the ALCS rotation as well. Meanwhile, Lance McCullers Jr. and Collin McHugh are other starters who will be available to give Houston several innings should the need arise.
When your third and fourth starters boast a 3.00 and 3.62 regular season ERA, respectively, you are in a solid position. Both starters outperformed expectations, but each are more than capable of keeping the opposition close enough to allow the Astros’ potent offense to do the rest.
On the other side of this matchup, the Yankees have Sonny Gray ready to go. He started Game 1 of the ALDS and although New York lost that game, the series ended up going well.
Gray did struggle in that ALDS start, lasting only 3.1 innings while allowing three runs and walking four. He’ll need to be better than that given his matchups. If he does go in Game 1, he’ll be asked to start again in the series and will be matching up with Keuchel. That’s a tough matchup, but Gray is familiar with the Astros having played most his career in the AL West. He’s 4-3 against them in nine starts with a 3.09 ERA in 58.1 innings.
Beyond Gray, Masahiro Tanaka, Luis Severino and C.C. Sabathia are the other three likely starters. All three got a start in the ALDS, Sabathia got two.
Tanaka was unhittable in his start. He allowed three hits and a walk in seven innings against the Indians. He’s certainly capable of a repeat. He’s had a few similar outings throughout the season, but did end the year 13-12 with a 4.74 ERA.
Most of Tanaka’s struggles came in the first half, but the second half wasn’t lights out. The biggest splits for the right-hander have been home versus the road. Joe Girardi would be smart to line him up for Game 3 in New York rather than Game 2 in Houston. At home, Tanaka was 9-5 with a 3.22 ERA in 15 regular season starts. He had a 6.48 ERA on the road in 15 starts. In a series like this, where he’s given the ball could be huge.
Severino was good in his ALDS start, too. He went seven innings and allowed three runs in the win while striking out nine. It was a great bounce back from the one-third of an inning he lasted in the AL Wild Card Game.
Given how dominate he was in the regular season, we can expect more of the ALDS Severino compared to the Wild Card Game Severino, but with a 23-year old emotions can run high. If he starts off with some troubles, he could spiral out. He didn’t fare well in his last start against the Astros, that coming in Houston. He allowed six runs in 5.1 innings.
Sabathia is 36-years old and his stuff isn’t what it used to be, but the veteran southpaw knows how to pitch. He’s the most predictable of the lot and looked pretty good in both of his postseason starts so far.
Offensive Comparison
It seems fitting that at this point in the postseason, the two teams with the most runs scored have been the Yankees and the Astros. New York is ahead in that, but they’ve also had a couple extra games to amass those runs.
In the regular season, they were two of the most prolific power hitting teams. New York out homered the Astros slightly while Houston was the slightly better overall offensive squad.
These offenses matchup well and could produce some exciting ALCS games, particularly if the pitching in any specific games struggles. These teams can put runs on the board in short order and can pushing the mistake pitches.
This series will feature the probable top two finishers in the AL MVP race with Aaron Judge and Jose Altuve. These two players couldn’t be more different from their size to their style of play to their positions. Nevertheless, they’re the key to their respective lineups.
Judge set the all-time rookie record for homers with 52. He led the AL in that category and drove in 114 runs to boot. He can be beat, however. He struck out 208 times. If pitchers make their pitches he has holes in his swing. They just cannot make a mistake to him.
In addition to Judge, the main attention grabbers in the Yankees lineup include Gary Sanchez and Didi Gregorius, these three form the middle of the order and have plenty of pop and a strong average. Outside of those three there’s still plenty of other weapons. Greg Bird has gotten hot at the right time. Aaron Hicks is also hitting the ball well right now.
For the Astros, Altuve—despite is diminutive stature—is a combination of power and speed. He hit .346 in the regular season and can be counted on to start rallies and extend them. He hit three homers in Game 1 of the ALDS.
Alex Bregman is swinging well right now, too. Both he and Carlos Correa delivered a pair of homers in the ALDS. Altuve hit .533 in the four games and Yuli Gurriel went 9-for-17.
This lineup is so stacked that Brian McCann, who was a middle of the order hitter in his time in Atlanta and New York, is the team’s No. 9 hitter.
Bullpen Breakdown
The rotation leans to the Astros and the lineup is a push, but the bullpen favors the Yankees.
That, of course, is not to say that Houston doesn’t have a good pen. Chris Devenski struggled a bit in the ALDS, but he’s the difference maker who could draw things closer.
Devenski is someone who A.J. Hinch can use in any spot for big outs. That’s important in a postseason series. If he can dominate in the “Andrew Miller” role, that helps close the gap between these two pens.
In addition to the talented right-hander, Joe Musgrove has been a reliable arm since making the switch from the rotation to the pen earlier in the year. Other starters like McCullers and McHugh help lengthen the rotation. Ken Giles has great stuff in the ninth inning, too. His youth and inexperience leave a few questions. He’s been known to be a bit emotional on the mound and that can come into play if he’s not getting the results he wants.
The Yankees’ pen made a name for itself on the national level in the Wild Card game. With just a single out from Severino, New York went on to win the game and the pen is a huge part of that.
Chad Green is the only reliever to give up significant runs and he’s a typically reliable option. Dellin Betances is a huge question mark right now, too. He was given a chance in three games and struggles to find his command.
Fortunately, Girardi shouldn’t have to go to Betances in a big spot. David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle have both come up huge. And, of course, there’s always Aroldis Chapman waiting at the back end. Chapman and Robertson did combine to go 4.2 innings on Wednesday. That could have an impact on their usage early in the ALCS.
Quick Pick
The Yankees already made it further than most thought. Cleveland led the AL in wins, had the experience and drive from coming up just short of the World Series last year and looked to be the stronger, deeper team. None of that mattered to New York as the team overcame a 2-0 deficit to take the series.
While New York will be coming off a huge win and have momentum, they don’t quite match up with the Astros. Houston’s offense can keep up with the Yankees and is arguably deeper and better equipped to find ways to score other than the longball.
While the Yankees have the deeper bullpen, Houston has the better rotation. The Astros have the offense to grab the early lead and the bullpen is strong enough to hold those leads.
MLB Odds: Astros over Yankees in Six
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
