The Baltimore Orioles head north of the border for a showdown with the Toronto Blue Jays, each hoping to avoid being the AL East division cellar by series end. Neither team is playing great baseball, but Baltimore does come into play having taken seven of nine from Toronto. Nevertheless, the O’s are just 13-24 on the road while the Jays are 19-17 at home.
This series will be contested from Tuesday, June 27, 2017 through Thursday, June 29, 2017 at the Rogers Centre in Toronto.
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Pitching Matchups
After 20 straight games of allowing at least five runs, the Orioles beat the Rays 8-3 on Saturday before an 8-5 win on Sunday. The Birds have now allowed at least five runs in 21 of their last 22 games and 23 of their last 25.
While the bullpen can be blamed for some of the struggles, most of the runs fall on the shoulders of a rotation that’s been downright awful for more than a month. The Blue Jays will try and get to the O’s early and take advantage of their terrible rotation.
Kevin Gausman will kick off the series for the O’s. He’s been the most disappointing start this season for Baltimore, bar none. The young right-hander came into his own last year and was expected to lead the staff in 2017. Instead, he’s 3-7 with a 6.47 ERA and 1.884 WHIP. He’s walking 4.4 batters per nine innings and allowing 12.6 hits per nine. His command is off, inside the zone and out.
Gausman has started to show flashes with a few good innings here and there, but has yet to really get on a roll. In his last start, he was just an out away from a quality start, going 5.2 innings, allowing three runs and striking out nine. That’s progress for the righty and he’ll try and build on that, putting the O’s in a position to win.
To get the win, the O’s will have to tee up off Joe Biagini.
The young right-hander may be pitching for a rotation spot as he’s primed to leave the rotation when Aaron Sanchez returns.
The righty is 2-5 with a 4.91 ERA in his nine starts after giving up four runs in 5.2 innings in his last start.
Biagini has pitched better out of the pen than in the rotation. Overall, he’s been a lot better at limiting base runners than Gausman. He’s appeared in four games against the O’s this year, all in April and all out of the pen. He’s pitched in 4.2 scoreless innings.
As the series progresses, the matchups don’t get any better for the O’s. At least Gausman brings upside.
The Orioles will turn to a pair of veterans in the final two games, giving the ball to Wade Miley on Wednesday and Ubaldo Jimenez on Thursday.
Miley had a very strong start to the year despite inflated walk numbers, but the poor control has caught up to the southpaw. He’s pitched to a 7.81 ERA in his last six starts and now 3-5 with a 4.48 ERA overall. He did hold the Jays to six runs in 13 innings—only three of those earned—in two starts this year.
As for Jimenez, he’s actually yet to face the Jays this year, but has a troubled history against them. Overall, he’s 2-3 with a 7.26 ERA split between the pen and rotation. He’s coming off a nine run, 2.1 inning outing just after going seven innings while giving up two runs against the Cardinals. Every once in a while Jimenez will throw a nice game, but more often than not, it’s a disaster.
To counter the struggling vets, the Jays will turn to Marcus Stroman on Wednesday and J.A. Happ on Thursday.
Stroman has been the Jay’s best starter this year. He’s bounced back from his struggles last year to go 7-4 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.295 WHIP. He’s already thrown two complete games.
Happ has lost a lot of time to injury, but has been pretty good in his eight starts. He’s only 2-4, but has a 3.83 ERA and 1.119 WHIP. He’s limiting base runners and has a strikeout to walk ratio of seven.
Offensive Comparison
The Orioles have long been a big homer or bust team. They sit near the top in homers and strikeouts with a rather low OBP and end up in the middle of the road in runs scored.
That’s, more or less, where they stand right now though players like Manny Machado and Mark Trumbo are struggling and Chris Davis is injured.
In June, the O’s have only been out homered by two teams in the AL, but are ninth in the AL in runs scored. Still, that’s been than Toronto. The Jays are dead last in the league in runs scored in June and have hit 10 fewer homers than the O’s.
Toronto just isn’t getting necessary production from Jose Bautista, Russell Martin or Troy Tulowitzki. They’re hitting .193, .167 and .231 respectively with six combined homers in June.
Without them, that puts a ton of pressure on the Josh Donaldson, Kendrys Morales and the surprising Justin Smoak.
As for the Orioles, they’re still waiting for Machado to heat up although he’s starting to turn the corner. Right now, the start for this team are Jonathan Schoop and Trey Mancini who have combined for 15 homers and 43 RBIs in June.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Orioles still need to get Zach Britton back in the fold. Brad Brach has filled in admirably in the closer’s role, but that’s limited the options for Buck Showalter earlier in the game.
Brach is scoreless in nine appearances in June and Richard Bleier, Mychal Givens and Darren O’Day have given Showalter a few reliable arms.
Overall, the O’s bullpen numbers in June—and the season in total—are mediocre at best, but there are a few reliable arms to lean on if the Orioles’ rotation can get through six innings. That’s been a huge issue, however, and no bullpen can withstand consistently getting 12 or more outs per night.
On the Blue Jays’ side of things, Roberto Osuna has pitched very well and stabilizes the pen from the backend. Overall, the Jay’s pen has an ERA nearly a half run lower than the Orioles’ as Baltimore continuously runs the Triple-A shuttling trying to find fresh enough arms to support the rotation.
When comparing these pens, it’s all about which team can get more out of the rotation. Right now, that’s Toronto, but both teams can get exposed in the pen with too many innings in this series.
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