Both subject of trade speculation as sellers at the deadline, the Baltimore Orioles and Texas Rangers will meet in their second series since mid-July. The O’s swept the Rangers in four games at home in their previous head-to-head series. The Birds showed solid pitching and a great offense in that series, but have gone 2-4 since.
This series will be contested from Friday, July 28, 2017 through Sunday, July 30, 2017 at Globe Life Park in Arlington.
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Pitching Matchups
Chris Tillman starts for the Orioles on Friday and the Orioles are hoping he continues to pitch well after posting a 3.31 ERA over his last three starts.
Tillman did allow three runs in 5.2 innings against the Astros in his last start. Before that, however, he pitched six, one-run innings against this same Rangers’ team.
Even with the recent semi-turnaround, his overall numbers remain horrendous. He’s 1-5 with a 7.01 ERA with a 1.939 WHIP. He’s tossed 60.1 innings in 13 games.
He, obviously, has proven to be better than that over his career so there is reason to believe his recent turnaround is for real.
Texas will counter Tillman with Andrew Cashner. Cashner is 5-8 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.394 WHIP. He’s pitched well and has been a reliable mid-rotation arm despite the win-loss record. He had a few struggles in June, but has thrown three straight quality starts since the calander flipped to July, including in a loss against the O’s.
As the series progresses, the Orioles will turn to another pitching throwing the ball better after a rough first few months: Kevin Gausman.
Gausman appeared to have a break out season last year and there where high expectations for the right-hander in 2017, but he crashed and burned.
He’s 7-7 with a 5.79 ERA in 22 starts, but has allowed just a single run in 12 innings over his last two games. One of those games was against Texas where he allowed the run, but struck out eight in six innings. Those two starts are encouraging, but it’s not the first time we’ve seen back-to-back good starts. He went 12.1 scoreless over two starts at the beginning of July before back-to-back clunkers.
Gausman certainly has more upside than his Rangers’ counterpart, Austin Bibens-Dirkx. Bibens-Dirkx hasn’t seen a whole lot of mound time lately. His last start was June 30 though he did go 2.1 innings against the Orioles when they played in Baltimore. He allowed two runs and six hits in that outing.
Split between starting and relief work, the 32-year old rookie is a solid 3-0 with a 4.53 ERA. His FIP, however, is 6.07 as he’s allowed 11 homers and struck out just 26 in 45.2 innings.
The terrible Orioles’ rotation just may have the upper-hand on Saturday, but that’s gone on Sunday when Wade Miley goes against Martin Perez. Perez hasn’t had a good year, going 5-8 with a 4.67 ERA, but he’s been good since the break. His numbers overall are also still better than Miley who is 4-9 with a 5.69 ERA. Unlike Tillman and Gausman, Miley’s been worse of late rather than better.
Offensive Comparison
In the month of July, the Orioles offense has been better than the Rangers, scoring 13 more runs though Texas has out-homered them.
Over the last several years, it’s been home run or bust for the Birds, but they’re find some other ways to score now, too.
This team is still rather inconsistent and struggles getting on base, but Jonathan Schoop is having a monster season and Manny Machado has bounced back in a big way.
Machado is batting .322 since the start of July. Schoop is batting .333 in the month with seven homers while Caleb Joseph, who has seen an increase in playing time, is batting .371 in his limited action.
Adam Jones has also been swinging a hot stick. He’s hitting .333 with four bombs since the break, tied with Schoop for most second half homers.
As for the Rangers, Adrian Beltre is the only one having a good start to the second half. He’s batting .367 with a pair of homers. Mike Napoli and Joey Gallo each have four second half homers and better averages in the first half, but they’re still the same big-time power, low average, high strikeout hitters.
The terrible year has continued for Rougned Odor who is now hitting .215 while Nomar Mazara’s streakiness has taken a downward turn.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Orioles seem reluctant to go into full-on sell mode, but if they do jump into the trade market, it could impact the bullpen more than anything.
Brad Brach is the most tradeable commodity on the O’s given his low salary and effectiveness. He was good filling in for Zach Britton—who could also be dealt if he can have a couple good outings before the deadline.
Britton hasn’t looked himself since returning from the DL. If he returns to form, that lines the pen up nicely leading up to him with Darren O’Day and Brach in set up roles while Richard Bleier and Mychal Givens have also been very effective arms with sub-2 ERAs.
While the rotation has been terrible and the offense—particularly the power—has taken a step back comparable to the rest of the league, the pen is still a strength even if some of the sixth and seventh guys have struggles.
The O’s pen has been asked to throw a lot of innings. If the starter can get through five or six, the pen lines up well. It’s the long guys that are weak.
Moving over to the Rangers, the bullpen has been an issue for them all year. The rotation is one of the better ones in the AL. In fact, it’s the best of the non-contending teams. The pen is better now than in April, but Jeremy Jeffress is a question mark and Tony Barnette is, too. Matt Bush has good stuff, but he’s bene spotty in the closer’s role with too many walks and homers allowed.
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