The Baltimore Orioles went from winning six straight to dropping four in a row and will be looking to get back into the win column and snap their first losing streak of more than two games in their series against the Detroit Tigers this week. This will be the first meeting between the two clubs this year after the Birds took five of seven from the Tigers in 2016.
This series will be contested from Tuesday, May 16, 2017 through Thursday, May 18, 2017 at Comerica Park in Detroit.
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Pitching Matchups
The Orioles burned their best pitchers and got swept by the Royals over the weekend and will now turn to Wade Miley and Ubaldo Jimenez in the first two games of the series in Detroit before giving the ball back to Dylan Bundy for the series finale.
While he doesn’t inspire much confidence, Miley’s been the team’s second most impactful player this year per rWAR. In his first seven starts, he’s 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA. He’s striking out 10.6 per nine innings and has held the opposition to a .214 batting average against him. All of that is nice, but Miley has struggled with walks. He’s walked 23 batters in 36.2 innings helping to drive up his WHIP to 1.391.
Given the high number of free passes and strikeouts, Miley’s pitch count is often quite lofty by the fifth and sixth inning, preventing him from going very deep into the game. Typically, the Orioles’ bullpen can cover the gap, but the pen has been struggling some lately without Zach Britton.
The pen figures to be active early behind Jimenez, too. He’s coming off a strong 7.2 inning outing. His numbers in that game don’t look all that great as he got charged with a few runs in the eighth to obscure what was a great start.
Prior to that, he had three straight starts where he couldn’t get out of the fourth inning. Before that, he had another 7.2 inning start. Interestingly, he’s pitched more than 4.1 innings in just two starts.
In his career, Jimenez’s numbers against the Tigers are just as discouraging as his numbers overall since joining the Orioles. He’s 6-11 in 21 starts with a 5.49 ERA and 1.517 WHIP.
If Miley and/or Jimenez falter, that could heap a lot onto the young shoulders of Bundy.
Bundy has been fantastic. He’s 5-1 with a 2.26 ERA and 1.026 WHIP. His seen his strikeout numbers drop from last year along with his walk rate as he’s become more pitch efficient. He’s thrown a quality start in each of his eight outings and is perfect in 1.1 innings against the Tigers in his career.
Speaking the Tigers, Detroit will look to a couple strong youngsters of their own in this series, sending Matthew Boyd and Michael Fulmer to the hill on Tuesday and Wednesday before turning to the veteran in Jordan Zimmermann to take on Bundy on Thursday afternoon.
The Boyd versus Miley matchup should be interesting. Boyd is 2-3 with a 3.89 ERA and 1.449 WHIP. He, like Miley, has given up many base runners, but done a reasonably good job at minimizing damage. Like Miley, his walks are inflated and his pitch counts have suffered thusly.
In Wednesday’s start, the pitching advantage is clearly in the Tigers’ corner. Fulmer is 4-1 with a 2.54 ERA, following up well on a Rookie of the Year season. He’s been the team’s best pitcher by far with a 156 ERA+ and has allowed just one base runner per inning.
The one bright spot for the O’s is they fared well against Fulmer last year scoring seven runs in 11.1 innings, including hitting two homers.
Speaking of homers, that’s where Zimmermann comes in. Baltimore is a homer or bust team and Zimmermann has already given up nine homers in 38.2 innings. He’s also got a 6.28 ERA. The Orioles have faced Zimmermann seven times and have hit 12 home runs against him.
Names to Remember
The Orioles have a lot of moving parts in their lineup given the handedness of the starting pitcher and then the pitching changes of the opposing managers.
Baltimore’s default starting corner outfielders are Seth Smith and Hyun Soo Kim, but both only ever see at bats against right-handed pitchers, meaning both figure to sit against Boyd when Jimenez takes the mound on Wednesday.
The O’s have routinely turned to Joey Rickard and Trey Mancini in the field against the left-hander with Mancini also stealing at bats from Kim against right-handers of late, too.
Mancini is not a natural outfielder and hadn’t played there professionally until this Spring.
Smith and Mancini have been two of the more productive offensive players with Manny Machado, Adam Jones and Mark Trumbo all struggling to get going.
Smith is batting .301 with a .902 OPS while Mancini is second on the team in homers with seven while batting .288 with 20 RBIs and a .918 OPS in 85 plate appearances. If either Smith or Mancini start any game on the bench, keep an eye out for one of their bats late in a close game with Craig Gentry ready to take over on defense.
For the Tigers, the name to remember is J.D. Martinez. He’s not an unknown player, but he made a big impact with a couple homers in his return. The Tigers need him to continue to swing the bat well with Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler and Nick Castellanos all having a tough start to the year.
Betting Trends
The Orioles have been playing some sloppy baseball in their last few games, but per the numbers, the Birds are still a very good defensive team—at least in the infield.
Defense and the bullpen have been what’s helped the Orioles defy so many odds over the last five years. That defense has gone away in the outfield and the bullpen has had a few issues, too.
The O’s hold the edge in the pen over the Tigers and should be favored in close games late, but Brad Brach has been hittable and so has Darren O’Day. Still, the Tigers’ bullpen has a 5.60 ERA to the Orioles’ 3.86.
Another thing to consider about the Orioles, they’ll be getting Welington Castillo back this week. The catcher was hitting well when he went on the DL and will return as the primary catcher, though the team may not improve. Caleb Joseph played well filling in and Francisco Pena did well in the reserve role. Castillo’s impact, however, could be felt in his work behind the plate. He’s known more for his bat, but his glove was getting rave reviews from pitchers before his injury.
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