The Baltimore Orioles salvaged the finale of a three-game series with the Blue Jays in Toronto on Wednesday night to snap a six-game losing streak, but the team is still two-games under-.500 and 4.5 back of the second AL Wild Card. The O’s will need a big weekend series against the New York Yankees in the Bronx. Baltimore has been terrible on the road all year and are 6-9 against the Yankees this year. It’s a huge up-hill battle of a series for Baltimore, but one they must win to stay in the Wild Card hunt.
This series will be contested from Thursday, September 14, 2017 through Sunday, September 18, 2017 at Yankee Stadium in New York. Thursday’s game will be broadcast live on MLB Network for those outside the local television markets.
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Pitching Matchups
The Orioles rotation is in shambles. This isn’t exactly a news flash. Baltimore has struggled through a terrible rotation all year, but it lines up poorly in what amounts to be a do-or-die series.
To kick off the series, the Orioles will give the nod to veteran southpaw Wade Miley opposite the Yankees’ Masahiro Tanaka.
While it’s been a disappointing campaign for Tanaka based on the numbers, he’s throwing the ball much better in the second half than his rocky first half. In the second half, he’s 4-3 with a 3.65 ERA.
Tanaka did stumble through his last start, allowing seven runs on eight hits against the Rangers in four innings. That, however, was in Texas. Tanaka has had issues on the road all year. He’s 7-5 with a 3.56 ERA in 13 home starts, but has a 6.14 ERA on the road in 14 starts.
Facing Tanaka in the Bronx is a tough enough assignment, but doing so with Miley as the opposing pitcher is even more challenging. Miley has been no mystery to the Yankees in his career with a 0-3 record, 4.83 ERA and 1.589 WHIP in his career against them.
This year, Miley’s 8-12 with a 4.96 ERA and has a WHIP of 1.661 driven mostly be a league leading 84 walks. He’s walking 5.1 per nine innings. That’s a staggering number and a bad omen against a team that’s historically been very patient at the dish.
The matchups get worse for Baltimore on Friday when Luis Severino throws for the Yankees and the Orioles opt to go with Gabriel Ynoa for only the second time this year. He went 4.2 innings, allowing three runs in his first big league start of the year. It would be foolish to expect much more from a starter with a 5.25 ERA in pitchers’ friendly Triple-A ballpark in Norfolk.
Severino, meanwhile, is New York’s best pitcher. He’s 12-6 with a 2.96 ERA and is coming off a gem of a start. Given the number of innings thrown fatigue could be a factor for the 23-year old, but he’s now allowed two runs—one earned—in 13 innings here in September.
In the third game of this series, the Orioles will hope that Jeremy Hellickson can build off his quality start on September 10. He held the Indians to three runs in six innings while allowing two homers in the process. That’s a good outing for Hellickson, showing just how low the bar has gotten. He’s allowed more homers in his last five starts than strike outs. That’s telling.
Opposite of Hellickson on Saturday is likely the Yankees’ most beatable pitcher of the series: Jordan Montgomery. The rookie has had a good first season, but he’s burnt out. He’s pitched 5.1 innings or fewer in seven straight starts. He lasted just eight combined innings in his last two starts. That includes a 4.2 innings appearance against the O’s, allowing a pair of homers.
On Sunday, the Yankees wrap the series with C.C. Sabathia who continues to provide quality innings. He’s 19-10 in his career against Baltimore with a 3.56 ERA.
The Orioles haven’t announced their starter. Dylan Bundy would be going on normal rest, but Buck Showalter has been trying to give him extra rest. We’ll see where the O’s sit in the standings come Sunday. If they still have a chance, they may roll with the youngster. At 13-9 with a 4.03 ERA, Bundy has unquestionably been the best pitcher this year for the Orioles.
He’s obviously much more likely to get a win than the other two options for the start: Chris Tillman and Ubaldo Jimenez.
Offensive Breakdown
After slugging their way back in the AL Wild Card hunt in August with 57 homers in 29 games, the Baltimore bats have fallen silent in September.
This is an all-or-nothing offensive squad, susceptible to long spells of futility. They can—collectively—hit the ball a long way. At the same time, they can be pitched to. They strikeout a lot and are not a great on-base team.
Still, a pitcher must locate against the Birds. If he hangs one, this team will not miss it. They have six players with at least 23 homers for the team. Welington Castillo sits at 19 and Tim Beckham has nine in only 40 games after hitting 12 with the Rays before heading to Baltimore.
Power, power and more power is the name of the game. No team relies on the homer as much as the O’s. Despite that major flaw, this is still a dangerous team with Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop anchoring the heart of the lineup.
For New York, Aaron Judge is starting to swing better after a prolonged slump. He’s up to 41 homers now and is still a threat in the order. Others like Chase Headley, Gary Sanchez and Didi Gregorius have been the bats keeping New York atop the Wild Card heap. Since the start of the month, the New York offense is fifth in baseball in runs scored.
Bullpen Breakdown
Both the Orioles and Yankees have top-5 bullpens in the American League based on ERA, but that’s just a fraction of the story.
Baltimore’s pen has gotten a few good storylines, none better than Miguel Castro. He’s been a great long man with a 2.83 ERA in 57.1 innings. Richard Bleier, the former Yankee, has pitched to a 1.93 ERA in 56 innings while Darren O’Day, Donnie Hart, Brad Brach, Mychal Givens and Zach Britton are all strong options.
Britton did just blow his second save, leading to the Orioles’ sixth consecutive loss. He bounced back on Wednesday. That’s a good sign, but Britton hasn’t been as dominant as he was last year. Castro also finally showed a few cracks recently while the other guys in the pen are all nothing more than fillers.
In New York, Aroldis Chapman hasn’t had the season the Yankees expected. His overall numbers are not bad, but he hasn’t been as dominant as in years past. He’s looked good in his last five games, however, striking out 10 in 5.1 innings. Tommy Kahnle, David Robertson, Chasen Shreve, and Adam Warren are all also posting 0.00 ERAs in September, albeit in a very small sample size.
Nevertheless, this vaunted bullpen may finally be pitching up to expectations—or at least close to them. Dellin Betances has allowed six runs in the month in 5.1 innings. He’s struck out 12, but walked four in that time.
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