It’s not a good year to be the AL Central. They’ve got the NL West as their interleague division matchup, a division that features three of the NL’s best teams. The Cleveland Indians have struggled in interleague play to this point thus, going 2-9. After facing the division’s elite, they now get to feast against the division’s weaker teams as they get set to host the San Diego Padres for a best of three series beginning on Tuesday.
This series will be contested from Tuesday, July 4, 2017 through Thursday, July 6, 2017 at Progressive Field in Cleveland.
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Pitching Matchups
The Indians will give the Padres a harsh welcome to Cleveland on Independence Day, sending team ace Corey Kluber to the hill. The Padres will counter with Trevor Cahill.
This will be Cahill’s first start since May 13 after missing most of two months with a shoulder strain. The right-hander was throwing the ball well before his injury, tossing seven games with a 3.27 ERA.
San Diego is desperate for starting pitching right now and need him to pitch like he did before the injury, but they may have rushed him back. He was out a while and only threw 5.2 innings combined in two rehab starts.
Even if Cahill is throwing well, it’s unlikely Andy Green will give him much of a leash. He’ll be on a tight pitch count to protect that shoulder. We may see a lot of the pen which could weaken this team for the second and third game of this series.
As for Kluber, he’s usually one you can count on for innings. He’s thrown 80.1 innings in 12 starts and is 7-2 with a 3.02 ERA and 0.996 WHIP. Those numbers are right in line for the Klubot.
The former Cy Young Award winner is a career 3.30 ERA pitcher with a .586 career winning percentage. Over his time in the big leagues, he’s been a strikeout pitcher, but this year has been even better as he’s sitting down 11.8 per nine innings. In fact, he’s struck out at least 10 in four straight games and five of his last six.
In his last three games, Kluber has thrown 24 innings, allowing just a single earned run on nine hits and three walks. He’s struck out 36 over that time, dropping his ERA more than a full run.
So, while Tuesday features a battle of aces, as mismatched as it may be, Wednesday is a battle of good stuff, but inconsistent performances.
Trevor Bauer starts for the Indians. His stuff is as good as anybody’s, but there’s a reason he’s got a 5.24 ERA and 1.380 WHIP. His command is not consistent. He can leave balls out for hitters or just completely lose the zone.
Bauer’s throwing the ball better lately, however. He’s 2-1 in his last four starts with a 3.16 ERA.
On the other side, Luis Perdomo is the Padres’ representative in this big-stuff, little-consistency showdown.
Perdomo has shown flashes and then has fallen apart quite frequently. He can usually be counted on for a good showing once or twice through the order, but cannot seem to adjust and get the outs the third time through.
Overall, Perdomo is 3-4 with a 4.71 ERA and 1.443. Those numbers pass for above average on this roster.
They certainly outshine Thursday’s starter: Dinelson Lamet. Lamet has made just seven starts and is 3-2, but his ERA is 5.35. The rookie’s numbers are a bit misleading, however. He’s thrown the ball well. He’s coming off a seven-inning shutout appearance and has three straight quality starts.
Beyond that, Lamet has a 1.108 WHIP and 12.2 strikeout per nine inning ratio. Those numbers suggest he’s pitched better than his ERA. In fact, his FIP is 4.31.
The Indians will counter Lamet with Josh Tomlin. A start of the 2016 postseason, Tomlin is 4-9 with a 6.17 ERA and 1.488 WHIP this year. He’s still been very good at avoiding walks, but hits have been a problem. He’s not fooling anyone and has been susceptible to the homer.
Betting Trends
The Padres are 34-48, that’s well below-.500 and the third worst record in baseball. Yet, things should be worse for San Diego.
San Francisco and Philadelphia have been awful, helping the Padres look a bit less terrible by comparison, but when you consider the Padres have scored just 296 runs while allowing 416, it’s amazing their record isn’t far worse. Based on those numbers, their Pythagorean record indicates they should be 29-53. That would put them neck-and-neck with the Phillies for worst record in the sport.
Overall, the Padres’ pitching is what is saving them. Their offense is terrible. They’re the last team standing without at least 300 runs scored. The pitching ranks No. 23 with a 4.70 ERA. San Diego does have a couple relief pitchers they can lean on Ryan Buchter and Brad Hand are legit arms. Still, this is the team with a 6.12 ERA in the closer’s role.
Interestingly, San Diego has gotten better and better as the year has progressed, the team’s won 11 games in each of the first three months, but dropped 16 and 17 in April and May, losing just 14 in June.
All in all, this is still a team that’s got a .316 winning percentage on the road, going 12-26.
On the other side of this matchup, the Indians are finally starting to play like the reigning American League Champions.
It took a while, but Edwin Encarnacion is hitting better now and the rotation looks like it may finally be coming together.
After going 31-31 in the first 62 games, the Tribe is 13-6 in its last 19. In that time, the offense and pitching has taken turns leading the way.
Names to Remember
This section should probably focus more on the Padres than Cleveland. The Indians are filled with household names after their World Series run last year.
Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor and even Lonnie Chisenhall are no longer underappreciated players, though Chisenhall is close given his strong season with a .305 average and .963 OPS.
Still, this is a pretty well-known lineup and even the bullpen with Andrew Miller and Cody Allen gets plenty of accolades. That said, there is one hurler that should get more attention: Nick Goody.
While Miller and Allen are locking down the later innings and while Boon Logan and Bryan Shaw are typically the next names uttered—even with Logan’s struggles—it’s Goody who is keeping up with the big boys.
The 25-year old former Yankee has pitched in 29 games, going 31.2 innings and allowing four earned runs and 20 hits. That’s a 1.14 ERA for those keeping score at home.
The Padres have plenty more names to remember because they have plenty more names that aren’t already known.
Jose Pirela is one of those names. In his 23 games with the big club, he’s hitting .290 with a .835 OPS.
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