After three straight seasons of diminishing returns, Philadelphia bottomed out in 2015, losing 99 games for the team’s worst finish in almost two decades. But heading into 2016, there’s plenty to suggest that the Phillies are heading in the right direction. The roster is young and full of promise, but with a short history of production at the major league level.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
+18709 to win 2016 World Series
+9980 to win NL Pennant
It’s a whole new ballgame in Philadelphia. The Phillies have a new club president in Andy MacPhail, a new general manager in Matt Klentak, a bunch of new players and even a new way of thinking - yes, the old-school franchise has joined the analytics movement.
Unchanged, however, is the team’s commitment to a full rebuild. Most of the cast that won the 2008 World Series has been shipped out, and the last few stragglers will soon follow.
Year 1 of the rebuild resulted in the worst record in the majors in 2015, but through the rubble a brighter day could be seen. Several promising youngsters arrived in the majors, and more are soon to come.
This team is still an active construction site with much work to do, but it does appear to be headed in the right direction.
Leading the wave of talent is third baseman Maikel Franco, who burst onto the scene last year. He played in 80 games and 37 of his 85 hits were for extra bases, fueling an .840 OPS.
Franco could blossom into an RBI champ and the type of middle-of-the-order threat that Ryan Howard was in his prime. The Phils, who averaged just 3.86 runs per game in 2015, really need that.
And speaking of Howard, the Phils are stuck with him for one more season as attempts to give him away were unsuccessful. He led the club with 23 homers and 77 RBIs, but he hit just .229, including .130 against lefties, and played poor defense. Howard’s contract is guaranteed just through this season.
The farm system boasts a wealth of promise. Top prospect shortstop J.P. Crawford should be starting by midseason and Nick Williams, landed in the Cole Hamels trade, appears to be the center fielder of the future.
There’s also 2011 second-round pick Roman Quinn and 2015 first-rounder Cornelius Randolph. For the first time in years, the Phillies and their fans have every reason to be excited about the future.
While the future may be bright, the present is still cloudy, as this team simply lacks talent. Aside from Franco, Odubel Herrera and possibly Darin Ruf, the lineup is without above-average hitters, and the rotation is equally thin.
The prospects will eventually bring some upside to the lineup and rotation, but until then, the majority of Philadelphia’s roster is a collection of washed-up veterans and back-end options miscast as everyday starters.
The Phillies still aren’t ready to contend, and they know that, but important young players have gained experience, and the pitching is deeper. They should climb a few steps out of the major league basement in 2016 and be quite interesting as more prospects begin to arrive later in the season.
Key Additions: SP Jeremy Hellickson, SP Charlie Morton, OF Peter Bourjos.
Key Losses: CL Ken Giles, OF Dominic Brown.
This is a big season for the Phils in terms of seeing which players can be added to the mix. We’ll know a lot more by season’s end about the state of the rebuild, too, and whether 2017 or 2018 are realistic target years for a return to contention. In 2016, however, even 70 wins would be considered a success.
Prediction: 64-98
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