There isn't a team in baseball which has overachieved more this year than the Philadelphia Phillies. It's pretty clear that the Phils have a lot of work to do in order to stick around in the rough and tumble NL East, and they're going to have a really tough time this weekend against the Chicago Cubs as well. If there's a game in which they'll have a real shot on paper, Sunday's series finale is it.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Phillies have been the most embarrassing franchise in baseball for the past few years, but this season they've really been doing well for bettors. We never imagined this team would have 26 wins in the month of May – heck, maybe not even in the month of June. Bettors have to be pleased, too. If you bet $100 on the Phils every day this season, you'd be up $1,003.
The Cubs though, are sporting the best record in baseball at 31-14 through 45 games. That leaves them on a pace to win 112 games this season. Their profits are certainly notable at 7.22 units, but if they slow down to a pace for 100 wins or so, there's a real chance they could end up losing money for their monetary supporters.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Vince Velasquez is still only 23-years old, but he's pitching like an All-Star already in this, his first full season in the bigs. In his 52.1 innings this year, he's got a 2.75 ERA, but perhaps the most impressive stat about him is his 10.49 K/9.
Velasquez though, isn't the same pitcher at home as he is on the road. Yes, he's 2-0 away from Citizens Bank Park this year, but his ERA is a lofty 4.50, and batters are reaching base at a .342 clip. At home, his ERA is 0.74, and his OBP against is just .217.
John Lackey has really found himself a new home in the north side of Chicago. He came on strong last year with the Cardinals with a 13-10 record and a 2.77 ERA, but this year's been even better this year for our money even though his ERA is a bit loftier at 3.38. He's 4-2, but the rest of the signs are there that he can keep this up for the whole season.
Lackey has 61 strikeouts in 61.1 innings of work, and his WHIP is only a svelte 0.95. Don't forget that this is after he allowed six runs in his first start of the year against the Diamondbacks. In his last five, Lackey has a 2.25 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP. The Cubs are only 2-3 in those duels, but they also only gave him more than three runs of support once.
LIVE BETTING
The big concern with the Phillies is that they've been doing this with some smoke and mirrors. Their young pitchers have been brilliant. Their bullpen has done enough to finish some games, but the offense has been just brutal.
If Lackey really gets rolling in this game, we've got a hard time believing in Philadelphia scoring all that much. The team is averaging just 3.30 runs per game and is hitting .236 as a unit.
Odubel Herrera has been fantastic with a .327 batting average and a .901 OPS. That said, take out him and Maikel Franco, and this offense is easily the worst in the game.
QUICK PICK
We'll be really interested to see what the spread is in this game. Lackey and the Cubs are clearly going to be favorites as they should be, but should they really be laying around -200 as we suspect they will? Probably not.
That said, Velasquez has some problems on the road he has to work out, and this moment of pitching on the road at Wrigley Field might end up being a little too much for him. Bettors have started to catch up to the Phillies and their winning ways, but we still don't think this team is anywhere near a .500 club when push comes to shove and some of the lucky factors of baseball start to level themselves out. We hate laying such big lumber with the Cubs, but this is a spot we think they'll excel in.
MLB Odds: Cubs 5, Phillies 2
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker's new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here, and start wagering today! First pitch for the game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Chicago Cubs is scheduled for Sunday, May 29, 2016 at 2:20 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field. The contest will be televised live on WGN.
