Philadelphia and Cincinnati are both teams looking into the future, rebuilding and retooling. In this middle game of two, we’ll get a matchup between two arms each team is expecting to be a big part of their respective starting rotations for quite some time.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Both teams are slated to lose well over 90-games this season with the Phillies win total sitting at 66.5 and the Reds at 71. Cincinnati’s win total is actually one of the best for the teams thought to be rebuilding in the National League.
WHEN THE PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES ARE AT THE PLATE
A season ago, the Phillies plated only 626 runs, the third fewest in the National League. I look for a bit of an improvement there as we see Maikel Franco for a full season.
The young third baseman is already a legitimate bat in the heart of the order after posting a .840 OPS in 80 games last year and following that up with a very strong spring training, slamming nine home runs and driving in 23.
He’ll look to lead this offense against 22-year old southpaw Brandon Finnegan, a key part of the Johnny Cueto deal to the Royals last season.
With a lefty on the mound, that should mean we see Darrin Ruf at first base instead of Ryan Howard. Ruf and Howard had identical OPS+ numbers at 94 last year. The 29-year old Ruf has some room to grow and is a lefty killer with a career .946 OPS against them to go along with 16 home runs in just 243 at bats.
Ruf is another Phillies player who had a dominant spring. He was second to Franco in home runs and RBIs with five and 14 respectively.
As for Finnegan, his major league experience is limited to just 55 innings and amongst 27 appearances; he’s only made four big league starts.
His overall numbers are still pretty solid with a strikeout an inning, a 3.27 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. He has given up eight bombs, however, and that’s led to an inflated FIP of 4.87. He’ll have to keep the ball in the ballpark which could be troublesome in a launching pad like the Great American Ball Park.
Watch to see if the Phillies are getting the ball elevated. If Finnegan cannot keep the ball down in the zone, look for a blast or two from Philadelphia with Franco and Ruf the likely ones providing the power.
WHEN THE CINCINNATI REDS ARE AT THE PLATE
With Todd Frazier on the south side of Chicago, the Reds lost their main power bat from last season.
Joey Votto will need to maintain his numbers after posting a bounce-back season in 2015 while the Reds will need similar bounce backs from Jay Bruce and Devin Mesoraco.
Even with Frazier, the Reds were only marginally better offensively than the Phillies last year, scoring 640 runs and posting a team OPS of .706. A healthy Mesoraco and improved Bruce could make up the loss, but that still puts Cincinnati as a below average team at the plate.
Despite not getting the Opening Day nod, the Phillies best starter right now is the one taking the mound Wednesday night.
Aaron Nola broke into the big leagues with 13 starts going 6-2 for a losing team with a 3.59 ERA and 1.197 WHIP over 77 2/3 innings of work. The 22-year old right-hander is the more experienced of the two starters in this game, though like his counterpart in Cincinnati, he can leave the ball over the plate.
BETTING TRENDS AND MATCHUPS
We have two young pitchers toeing the rubber both prone to some degree of conceding the long ball. We also have a game played in a hitter-friendly ballpark and two teams that, while not the best offensively, still have a few bats that can put a charge into a ball.
Overall, the above is a recipe for some homers. Don’t be surprised if most of the scoring in this game comes off the long ball, though neither team has any hitter that’s had even one at bat against the opposing pitcher at the big league level.
Unfamiliarity with the pitcher often will benefit the hurler as batters familiarize themselves with the hurlers’ arm action and the break on pitches.
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