Year 1 of the Phillies rebuild was painful as they posted the worst record in the majors at 63-99 last season. Year 2 is going to be painful, too. The season-opening series in Cincinnati confirmed that.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Not much is expected from the Phillies this season and they didn’t disappoint in their season-opening series in Cincinnati. Philadelphia was swept in the three-game set, but they did score 10 combined runs, a plus considering the Phils are expected to be challenged offensively. They will face a much stiffer test over the weekend against the Mets, but they may miss Jacob deGrom, who is on call to leave when his wife goes into labor. The Phils may have their best chance Saturday against ageless wonder Bartolo Colon, who sets up as the weak-link in the rotation at the start of the season.
While the Mets were in Kansas City to open the season, they watched the Royals raise their World Series banner. New York was forced to relive some of the most painful moments from last fall as the reigning champs played highlights on the stadium video board. Prior to Friday’s home opener, the Mets played just two games in five days. They are itching to play a team other than the Royals.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Vince Velasquez was the key piece in the trade that sent Ken Giles to Houston and earned the fifth spot in the Phillies rotation with a strong spring. He was 1-1 with a 4.37 ERA, 58 strikeouts and 21 walks in 55.2 innings with the Astros last season.
Velasquez has good stuff, his fastball averaged 94.6 and he features a slider, curve and changeup. The control needs to improve and he may struggle to earn wins with a poor offense behind him, but he should be a solid piece to the rebuilding club.
Bartolo Colon will get the start if deGrom isn’t called away. DeGrom is slated to pitch Friday’s home opener, however, his wife is expecting the couple’s first child and he would leave the club if he gets the call. That would throw the rotation into scramble mode.
Now in his 19th big league season, Colon has posted double-digit wins in each of the last four years. He went 14-13 with a 4.16 ERA over 194.2 innings in 2016 at the age of 42.
LIVE BETTING
Opening the season on the wrong end of sweep, the Phillies did little right. The offense produced just four runs in the first two games, but that wasn’t the problem. Philadelphia’s bullpen was tagged for 14 hits and 11 runs in 7.2 innings in the three games against Cincinnati. Relievers also walked six and hit a batter in the series. Things will definitely be interesting once manager Pete Mackanin takes his starter out of the game.
QUICK PICK
The Phillies are not a good baseball team and as their rebuild continues with an eye toward 2017 and beyond, they will take their lumps. Philadelphia isn’t likely to touch the top of the Mets rotation, but they catch the fifth spot on Saturday which gives them a better chance of pulling out a victory against the division favorite. Phillies starter Velasquez was just a toddler when Colon made his MLB debut and there will be more than a contrast in age with this matchup. Velasquez throws hard and could be a problem for the Mets hitters if he can master his command. If not, the Mets could touch him up. The Mets won’t sweep the 19-game season series with their division rival, but they need to have plenty of success to win another NL East title.
MLB Odds: New York 5, Philadelphia 2
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