The Nationals will attempt to build upon their lead atop the NL East standings and defend their turf against the division rival Philadelphia Phillies when the teams pick their series back up in the nation’s capital on Saturday.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Though Philadelphia sits a game under .500 for the year, Pete Mackanin’s squad still checks in as the sixth most lucrative bet in all of baseball. This has everything to do with the team overachieving through the first nine-plus weeks of the season, and oddsmakers continuously lining them as underdogs in most games. For the season, the Phillies have reeled in upwards of $460 for their betting backers, and they stand 13-15 on the road where they’ve taken in $250 worth of profit.
After underachieving the last couple seasons, the Nationals are playing like the team many expected with dusty Baker now at the controls. With a 3.5 game lead in tow over the New York Mets, Washington is the -140 favorite to take the division down at season’s end, and sits only behind the Cubs and Giants as 5-1 underdogs to represent the National League in the World Series. The team has however dropped $99 for investors home where it’s only played .577 ball through 26 games.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Aaron Nola was one of the more heralded prospects when he was called up last season. After going 6-2 with a 3.59 ERA and allowing just 74 hits through just over 77 innings as a rookie last season, many expected it only to get better for the young right-hander in 2016. Well, they were right. Through 78 innings of 12 starts, Nola is giving up just 7.2 hits and striking out 9.8 batters per nine innings. As the No. 1 starter on a losing ball club, Philly has won seven of his 12 overall starts and he’s been lights out on the road where he’s 3-0 with a 1.58 ERA and .166 batting average against.
This outing will mark his fourth start against Washington this season. Since getting blown up in the first one for seven earned through five, he’s allowed just seven hits and 2 ER through the last 13 innings of the last two.
Much like he did a couple years back, Tanner Roark was offered a starting gig due to injury and run with it. The righty is 4-4 with a 3.21 ERA and .236 BAA through 12 starts, and doesn’t look to be giving up his spot in the rotation any time soon. While he’s averaging just over 8.0 strikeouts per nine innings, walks have been an issue with him issuing better than three per start which has led to a bloated 1.25 WHIP. He’s been at his best at home where he’s 2-3 with a 2.68 ERA, and has been dominant against Philadelphia through two starts that saw him concede just six hits and 2 ER through 14 ER.
LIVE BETTING
This has the makings of a superbly pitched game. Both Nola and Roark have excelled in day games to date with the former allowing just 28 hits through 32 innings under the sun and striking out better than 10 batters per nine innings. The latter has conceded just 29 hits through 34 innings in day games while striking out over 10 batters per nine innings as well.
A first five innings wager under the total looks to be in order here with neither offense likely capable of getting to either starting pitcher early.
QUICK PICK
This has been a very competitive division rivalry this season with the Nats holding a slim 5-4 advantage heading into Friday’s series opener. Washington has actually dropped four straight to Philly at home, and was swept back in late April the last time Ryan Howard and company paid a visit.
I give the Phillies an excellent shot of keeping their road dominance versus the Nats intact with their staff ace on the bump. Either way, look for it to be competitive and low scoring all the way through.
MLB Odds: Phillies 3, Nationals 2
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