The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets will square off over a three-game series this weekend. This is not a headliner series given their terrible winning percentages, but with the Trade Deadline a month away, both could be fun to watch given their respective trade chips. For now, these two teams are battling to stay out of the cellar in the NL East; New York has a significant lead in that.
This series will be contested from Friday, June 30, 2017 through Sunday, July 2, 2017 at Citi Field in New York.
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Pitching Matchups
Pitching is important, but keeping runs off the board has been a huge issue for both teams. As such, it’s not a surprise that both the Mets and Phillies have struggled this year.
The one exception to the pitching woes for New York is Jacob deGrom. He gets the ball on Friday.
The Mets’ right-hander is 7-3 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.268 WHIP over 97 innings. deGrom’s ERA is higher this year than any of his last four years, but at least he’s still giving the Mets a chance to win when he pitches.
Over his last three starts, deGrom has allowed two runs, pitching 25 innings. He’s been lights out with two of those three games against solid offenses including the Cubs and Nationals. Before that, he had two bad starts, allowing 15 runs in eight innings. With those bad starts removed, deGrom’s ERA is 2.53.
If deGrom continues his roll, it’ll be an uphill battle for the Phillies and their rookie starter Ben Lively in Game 1.
The 25-year old right-hander is 1-2 with a 3.90 ERA in his brief five game career. His first four starts all resulted in a quality start. His last outing was a bit rough, but that was against the Diamondbacks, a great offensive club.
It’s likely that Lively’s start was more of a blip on the screen than anything, but it’s always interesting to see how a young starter rebounds from a bad start, particularly with such a short Major League track record.
After deGrom, it goes downhill fast for the Mets. Zack Wheeler makes his return from the DL on Saturday. They’re hoping he’s fully healed and fully over his complete meltdown that resulted in 15 runs in just 3.2 innings spread over his last two starts before the DL stint. The rough stretch bumped his ERA up to 5.29, but even so, he’s still far from the team’s worst starter.
After Wheeler, the Mets will turn to Rafael Montero. The right-hander has looked good in three June appearances with a 1.46 ERA and 15 strikeouts in 12.1 innings. He’s still 1-4 with a 5.63 ERA. Overall, command is still an issue and he’s still posting a negative rWAR.
While the Mets have a couple question marks in the final two games of this series, the Phillies options really aren’t much better.
Saturday, Philadelphia turns to de facto ace Jeremy Hellickson. He’s pitched well in his last couple outings as the Phillies hope he’s able to boost his trade value. He had a good year last year, but he’s a meager 5-5 with a 4.40 ERA this year. Essentially, he’s the epitome of a back-of-the-rotation arm.
Nick Pivetta starts Sunday. He certainly offers more upside, but he also comes with more downside. He’s 1-4 with a 5.40 ERA in nine starts and is coming off a disappointing outing against Arizona, lasting just 2.2 innings and giving up six runs. He’s been hittable this year and his walks are high with 24 in 45 innings. Still, he’s got great stuff. He’s recorded 49 strikeouts as a testament to that.
Betting Trends
Don’t look now, but the Phillies are 4-3 in their last seven games. Sure, that may not seem like much, but for Philadelphia, that’s a scorching hot streak. After all, this is the same team that went 1-13 in the 14 games leading up to their better play.
In the Phillies’ three losses, they scored four runs, but in their four wins, they’ve scored at least five runs in each as they’ve take advantage of some pitchers missing their spots. The Mets’ arms—both starters and relievers—are certainly capable of that.
In the home dugout, the Mets come into the series happy to be returning home for a brief three-game home stand even though New York plays better ball on the road.
They’ve won five of their last six and taking back-to-back series against the Giants and Marlins. New York has shown they can still beat the have-nots and the Phillies certainly fall into that category.
Overall, the Mets are undoubtedly the better offensive club. Sure, they’re flawed and have many holes, but they have power, hitting twice the number of homers in June as the Phils. They’ve also outscored their neighbors to the south.
Key Offensive Contributors
The Phillies were supposed to be developing a young core at the big-league level. Maikel Franco, Odubel Herrera and Tommy Joseph were all part of that and all are currently below average based on OPS+, the first two, well below average.
Despite the season numbers, keep an eye on Herrera. The others are still lounging in mediocrity, but Herrera has been swinging the bat better lately. He’s hitting .320 in June and has a major league high 13 doubles in the month and leads the Phillies with his 14 June RBIs. As Aaron Altheer has settled back to earth, it looks like Herrera may be the next player to watch as he surges.
Moving to the Mets, Yoenis Cespedes is the key to this offense while Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce and even Lucas Duda have all had their days.
Well, Bruce is swinging well again, hitting eight bombs and batting .310 in June, but he’s not alone. Curtis Granderson who was so bad early on he lost regular at bats has started to swing the bat well again. He’s now hit .315 with eight homers and a .440 OBP in his last 25 games. He’s posted a 1.166 OPS in that time.
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