The Washington Nationals remain the best team in the National League after a walk-off victory on Wednesday night against the Orioles. The Nationals will welcome in the Philadelphia Phillies for a three-game weekend set after finishing up against Baltimore and will aim to put even more distance between them and the rest of the division in the already lopsided NL East standings.
This series will be contested from Friday, May 12, 2017 through Sunday, May 14, 2017 at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C.
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Pitching Matchups
It will be take two for the former Nationals’ farm-hand on Friday night as Nick Pivetta will get a second chance against his former organization after Washington took him deep three times, scoring four runs in five innings. He’ll matchup against Tanner Roark this time around.
Roark remains the best pitcher nobody knows. Of course, he’s known in baseball circles, but still seems underappreciated. This year, the 30-year old is 3-1 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.152 WHIP in 41.2 innings.
Roark was a Cy Young candidate last year—at least finishing in the top-10 in voting thanks to a 2.83 ERA and 16 wins. He’s continued to be, quietly, very effective. He held the Phillies to no earned runs—two total—in six innings, allowing just two hits.
While he routinely keeps the Nats in the game, the team has lost his last two starts even with the best offense in baseball.
Back to Pivetta, he’s now 0-2. He does have 11 strikeouts in 10 inning, but he’s also allowed 18 hits. In his three starts at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, he was 3-0 with a 0.95 ERA in 19 innings and was much better keeping runners off base.
Another pitcher struggling with base runners allowed is Vince Velasquez who starts on Saturday. He’s been one to find himself at his pitch limit early due to a ton of both walks and strikeouts. He did a better job with the walks last time out, forcing this same Nationals team to earn their way on base, not giving up a walk. That’s encouraging, but this stout offense still scratched across six runs against him. Overall, he’s shown flashes of some truly dominating stuff, but he’s still just 2-3 with a 5.94 ERA.
Sunday’s starter is the team’s most consistent hurler: Jeremy Hellickson. The 30-year old was overpaid when offered the qualifying offer, but given the struggles of the rest of the rotation other than Zach Eflin, it’s arguably been worth it already. He’s 4-1 with a 3.49 ERA. He’s 2-3 with a 4.68 ERA in his career against Washington and lasted just 4.2 innings, giving up three runs against them his last time out. It was his second straight start where he failed to get through the fifth. Since the start of May, he’s pitched just 8.2 innings, allowing nine runs on 13 hits, five being homers.
The Nationals will look to take advantage of Hellickson’s struggles after belting a pair of homers off him a week ago. They won’t need to get too many runs off of him as he’ll be opposite of Max Scherzer on Sunday. Gio Gonzalez gets the ball on Saturday.
The Nats lost both Gonzalez’s and Scherzer’s last starts, but the two are pitching very well so far. Gio is 3-1 with a 2.64 ERA though his FIP is 5.01 as a result of seven homers and 22 walks. He’s allowed his share of base runners and homers, but not at the same time.
Scherzer is 4-2 with a 2.59 ERA and a 0.884 WHIP. His FIP is just 3.27 showing luck has been far less of a factor for him as he’s striking out 11.5 per nine innings.
Offensive Comparison
Ryan Zimmerman’s batting average is back under .400, Bryce Harper’s OBP is below .500 and Trea Turner is batting only .260 with a .722 OPS.
Interestingly, on the last of those facts really paint much of a gloomy picture and the speedy shortstop is just going through some bumps in the road and figures to be just fine. We’ve already seen some big games from him this year.
In the meantime, even though the Orioles were able to slow the offense down in the first couple games of their series, the Nationals remain the most prolific offense in the Major Leagues. They lead the way with their 209 runs scored and secured a walk-off victory on Wednesday night, ultimately scoring seven runs in the process.
What Zimmerman and Harper have been able to do so far is just ridiculous. They’re both boasting OPS+ numbers over 215 and have combined for 23 home runs and 63 RBIs in 235 combined at bats. Those numbers are video game type numbers, not what you expect in real life.
If not for the Adam Eaton injury there wouldn’t be a weak spot in this lineup, but even with a light hitting centerfielder and the pitchers’ spot, this lineup is still the hardest to navigate in baseball.
As for the Phillies, they’ve been incredibly average.
Aaron Altherr is red hot, hitting .351 with seven homers and 21 RBIs in 85 plate appearances and is carrying this offense. Michael Saunders and Maikel Franco continue to struggle, but this team is finding ways—on occasion—to get on the board. They rank No. 16 out of 30 in runs scored to this point in the year.
Bullpen Breakdown
This is the Nationals’ one weakness. They’re the best offensive team in baseball and have a stacked rotation, at least in the top-4 spots. This is also a pretty good defensive squad with only 18 errors.
The Nationals’ team bullpen ERA is 5.40, the worst in the National League and better only than the Rangers and Tigers in all of baseball. The next worst team in the NL is San Diego at 4.99 and the Phillies rank No. 22 in the sport at 4.66.
Washington’s pen has been a bit better in the month of May with an ERA of 4.61 in 27.1 innings, but the Phillies have been better, too, at 4.29 in 35.2 innings. With the better rotation, Washington’s pen is more rested, but that’s a bigger concern later in the year than it is half way through the season’s second month.
While these surface numbers call the Nats into question late in games, Washington has, nevertheless, been able to get wins. Looking closer, it seems the Nats’ pen may not actually be as bad as it seems. Their xFIP in the month of May is 3.75 and they actually have accumulated a positive 0.4 fWAR in the month. For comparison, the Phillies’ xFIP is a disastrous 6.07 and they have a negative fWAR as a group.
This Nationals’ bullpen may not be a powerhouse and may be missing some of their injured players like Shawn Kelley and Koda Glover, but they team’s biggest weakness may not actually be such a weakness, at least not in this series.
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