Neither team is exactly thriving right now as the Philadelphia Phillies get set to head west to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates in a three-game battle-for-Pennsylvania series this weekend. Both teams sit around .500 at home, giving the Buccos a decisive advantage over a Phillies’ team that’s 6-14 this year on the road.
This series will be contested from Friday, May 19, 2017 through Sunday, May 21, 2017 at PNC Park in Pittsburgh.
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Pitching Matchups
The Phillies open the series with their ace on the mound. Of course, for Philadelphia that means Jeremy Hellickson who has reinvented himself over the last couple seasons.
The 30-year old right-hander is 4-1 on a bad Phillies team and his 3.71 ERA mirrors the mark he posted last season when he went 12-10, pitching well enough to earn himself a Qualifying Offer.
The righty has been the Phillies’ lone consistent starting arm. He’s thrown 43.2 innings and while he’s given up a lofty nine home runs, he’s kept runners off the bases with just eight walks and 40 total hits for a 1.099 WHIP.
While all those numbers are nice, Hellickson’s strikeout rate is very alarming. His got a reasonably low career rate of 6.7 per nine innings, but he was at 7.3 last year and hasn’t been below seven since 2012. This year, he’s only struck out 18 batters in 43.2 innings. Because of all the contact, his FIP is 5.63, much higher than his ERA.
It seems some of Hellickson’s early season success is a result of smoke and mirrors, but the fact he pitched well last year, too, helps legitimize it a bit more.
The Pirates will counter Hellickson with Trevor Williams who in 19.2 innings has almost equaled Hellickson in strikeouts.
Williams was plucked out of the bullpen to take a rotation spot following Jameson Taillon’s diagnosis. He’s primarily been a starter in the minors and has a cumulative 3.10 ERA over four seasons. This year with the big club, he’s 2-2 with a 6.41 ERA this year. He struggled in his brief cup of coffee with the Pirates last year, too.
Still, while the overall numbers aren’t very good, Williams is coming off a pretty good start against a good hitting Arizona team. He threw 77 pitches, giving up one run on four hits in five innings. He’ll look to build off that.
On Saturday, the Pirates will turn to their most veteran arm in Ivan Nova against what is probably the Phillies’ most projectable arm in Vince Velasquez.
Velasquez has shown the stuff here and there to get you excited, but he’s 2-3 with a 5.63 ERA and 1.383 WHIP. He’s walked 18 batter is 38.1 innings. He routinely finds himself with 100-pitches in five innings and cannot go deep into games. Still, he’s got the best strikeout rate of any Phillies starter and has sat down 39 batters this year on strikes.
The bullpen will be up and in the game by the sixth for Philadelphia. Meanwhile, the Pirates will hope Nova can give the pen a bit of a breather. He’s repeating the success he found after getting traded over to Pittsburgh at the deadline last year. He’s the latest Rey Searage success story.
The embattled former Yankee was a bit of a mess while in New York. Since coming to the Pirates, he’s 8-5 with a 2.80 ERA. His career ERA is 4.18.
This year, Nova is 3-3 with a 2.48 ERA and 1.031 WHIP. He’s already notched two complete games including one shutout and has thrown 54.1 innings.
Nova’s month of May has been a bit bumpier than his April, but even so, he’s still gone at least six innings in all three starts this month, allowing an average of three runs per start.
For the series finale, the two teams will be looking at a matchup of Aaron Nola against Chad Kuhl. Based on the numbers, the Phillies have the pitching edge in Game 1 and 3 while the Pirates get the nod in the middle game. After all, Kuhl has a 6.69 ERA and 1-3 record in eight starts.
Offensive Futility
As noted above, there are certainly concerns for both teams over the course of the series when it comes to who will be toeing the rubber, but who will be in the batter’s box is equally concerning.
The Pirates as a team are hitting just .224, just barely ahead of the San Diego Padres for the worst mark in baseball. They’ve hit just 35 home runs as a team and have scored only 142 times in 39 games.
With those numbers, it would be easy to favor the Phillies, but Philadelphia has a worse overall record and while the offense is better by the numbers, the difference isn’t all that stark.
The Phillies have scored a few more runs and are hitting .256 as a team. That’s a nice jump, but they’re in the middle of a 3-13 stretch and while Aaron Altherr is doing his best Mike Trout impression, Odubel Herrera, Michael Saunders and Maikel Franco, all of whom were expected to make significant contributions this year, are all significantly below average in terms of overall production.
Of course, below average production is better than no production at all which is the case with Startling Marte, the Pirates best player. Add in a continued decline for Andrew McCutchen, a disappearing act for Gregory Polanco and it’s no wonder this team is where it is in the standings.
Bullpen Breakdowns
The bullpen is one of few strengths to this Pirates’ team right now. Overall, the ERA is just 4.04 which is the middle of the pack, though much better than the Phillies.
Still, Tony Watson has been nails in the ninth when the team does present him with a rare chance for a save. Wade LeBlanc, Felipe Rivero and Juan Nicasio have all been nice stories with 15 combined runs allowed by the four of them in 78.1 innings.
For the Phillies, their bullpen already has 11 losses and while additions like Pat Neshek and Joaquin Benoit were supposed to take pressure off the starters and the rest of the pen, Neshek is the only one of the two having a good year. In fact, he’s the only reliever throwing well in general with the possible exception of Hector Neris.
When it comes to defense, at least the Phillies’ pen—and starts for that matter—get a bit of help. The Pirates have had a struggle defensively. They’ve made 28 errors this year, nine more than the Phillies. The Marte suspension and subsequent outfield shake up certainly hasn’t helped the defense.
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