The first two months of the season were tough for the Pittsburgh Pirates, but they’ve played better baseball since June and much of that can be attributed to Andrew McCutchen’s amazing turnaround. The stories of his demise have been greatly exaggerated. Still, he and his band of misfits aren’t enough to play with the big boys in the NL. It’s been a similar story for the Toronto Blue Jays who will took to make a statement against the Pirates in a three-game set. The Jays were a contender heading into the year, but injuries and ineffectiveness from a number of key players have led to them pulling up the rear in the AL East.
This series will be contested from Friday, August 11, 2017 through Sunday, August 13, 2017 at Rogers Centre in Toronto. Saturday's clash is being shown live on MLB Network.
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Pitching Matchups
The Pirates rotation is young and the Jays will see the junior most members of the weekend. Jameson Taillon is slated to start on Friday with Trevor Williams on Saturday and Chad Kuhl toeing the rubber on Sunday.
The Jays will counter those three with Marcus Stroman on Friday and J.A. Happ on Sunday. They’ve yet to announce their starter for Saturday’s game.
For Friday’s matchup we have a real treat with two of the game’s biggest up-and-coming stars.
Taillon has garnered headlines for his fight with testicular cancer and his quick recovery. The right-hander has seemingly had many hurdles to jump in his young career and has shown the makeup and poise to overcome each challenge.
That’s great make up for an ace in the making, but his performance—more often than not—paint a similar picture of a truly gifted starter. His numbers, however, aren’t exactly the best. He’s 6-5 with a 4.60 ERA in 16 starts.
Those numbers are skewed greatly by two terrible starts. His last time out, he went 6.1 innings, allowing two runs against the Padres. Before that, he allowed 18 runs—17 of those earned—in 6.2 combined innings in two starts.
You cannot just cherry pick stats, but if you exclude those numbers, Taillon’s ERA is barely three. The question is: can we assume after one start that Taillon is over his little hiccup?
Stroman, meanwhile, brings much the same hype—save for the cancer recovery—with better 2017 results.
The right-hander had struggles in his first full season back from a serious injury that sidelined him most of 2015, but he’s been great this year. He’s 10-5 with a 3.17 ERA in 23 starts. The 26-year old threw a quality start in his last outing, but had failed to do so in back-to-back games before that after a string of five very effective outings before that.
Toronto’s Saturday starter is still unknown, but other than Stroman and Happ—who goes on Sunday, the rest of the lot has disappointed this year.
The Pirates’ Saturday starter isn’t a top-of-the-rotation arm, but he’s put together a strong year with a 4.17 ERA in 23 games, including 17 starts. In his last 16 starts after the first one of the year, he’s posted a 3.56 ERA. He’s also coming off his best start of the year, allowing just one hit in seven scoreless frames against the Tigers.
Moving on to the series finale, Happ gets the nod over Kuhl based on the numbers. Happ is just 5-8 because of the Jays’ struggles as a team, but he’s posted a 3.77 ERA and 1.313 WHIP. Kuhl has a 4.53 ERA and 1.422 WHIP.
Happ is one of those that gives you a consistent start every time out. He’s allowed three runs or less in 10 of his last 11 games.
Kuhl is a bit less predictable, but he’s throwing well. He threw seven scoreless against Cincinnati on August 3 and followed that up with a quality start last time out against Detroit.
Offensive Comparison
The Pirates and Blue Jays are pretty evenly matched on offense. Pittsburgh ranks No. 25 in runs scored and Toronto sits at No.26. The Jays have hit nearly fifty-percent more homers, showing more power, but the total production is about the same.
Interestingly, the early returns in August paint a very similar picture though the home run difference is a bit bigger with the Jays nearly doubling up the Pirates.
Justin Smoak now has 31 homers for Toronto and has continued his break out campaign. His .967 OPS season has been nearly buried on a bad Blue Jays team and this squad would be in the bottom of the league offensively if not for him.
Jose Bautista’s bat continues to look slow and the right-fielder clearly looks like a player with his best days behind him. Kendrys Morales’ offense has started coming to life. He’s hit 21 homers, but his OPS+ is merely 100. He’s an average offensive contributor at DH and, sadly, the third-best bat behind Smoak and Josh Donaldson.
For Pittsburgh, the lack of power is obvious. Josh Bell has 19 homers and Andrew McCutchen has belted 23 in a comeback season, but the rest of the team hasn’t produced in a climate where nearly everyone is hitting 20 bombs.
In total, McCutchen—who continues to be red-hot—is the only Pirate considerably better than average based on OPS+. He needs help and Gregory Polanco has regressed in 2017 while Starling Marte looks like a PED user off the drugs right now.
Bullpen Breakdown
Tony Watson wasn’t having a great year, but he’s still a serviceable left-hander reliever and the Pirates miss him in the pen. They’re now shallower in the back end.
Felipe Rivero has been a dominant closer since taking over the role and has pitched well all year. He’s posted a 1.25 ERA in 57.2 innings and has 10 saves. He’s posted a 0.763 WHIP and 10.6 strike out to walk ratio.
Juan Nicasio has pitched well in the pen, too. Otherwise, Wade LeBlanc and Daniel Hudson have been mediocre at best. Joaquin Benoit and George Kontos are interesting additions for a team perceived out of playoff contention. Nevertheless, the two are proven veteran arms. They might be the difference in these two pens.
After all, the Jays have a talented closer, too in Roberto Osuna. His season hasn’t been as dominant as Rivero’s, but he’s got a longer track record in the role.
The Jays’ closer did have a terrible outing against Houston recently, but he’s reliable. The arms leading up to him, however, are not.
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