The Pirates are used to winning a lot of games. Their 98 victories in 2015 were tied for the third-most in franchise history – and that’s a long history. Pittsburgh has qualified for the postseason in each of the past three seasons, but lost the Wild Card in each of the last two. Now it’s about avoiding that one-game playoff by winning the NL Central, but with the Cards and Cubs both looking strong, it’ll be a tall order.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES
+2300 to win 2016 World Series
+1100 to win NL Pennant
After finishing second for three straight years, the Pirates would love to win the division this time and avoid playing the winner-take-all Wild Card game. That may be tough to do with the Cubs loading up in free agency and the Cardinals still possessing a talented roster.
However, the Pirates won’t be pushovers with a nucleus that includes Gerrit Cole, Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte. While Pittsburgh might not make it four “Buctobers” in a row, they should at least be competitive in 2016 while a host of prospects stand ready to help in 2017.
Anchored by former NL MVP McCutchen, the Pirates boast one of the most talented outfields in the game. The 30-year-old has been selected to the last five All-Star Games and has finished third, first, third and fifth in NL MVP voting during the past four years.
Left fielder Marte possesses as much raw talent as McCutchen and is three years younger. He won his first Gold Glove in 2015 and is a threat offensively with both power and speed. Right fielder Gregory Polanco also has the chance to be a star. Just 24 and having played less than two full major league seasons, Polanco is still developing his game.
The Pirates were fourth in the NL in runs, average, on-base percentage and eighth in slugging percentage last season. They did lose Pedro Alvarez and Neil Walker, so there’s some slugging to make up, but it’s difficult to act like either is irreplaceable.
Cole emerged as the ace of the staff in 2015, his first with more than 150 innings pitched. His 19 wins were the most by a Pirates pitcher since 1991. Cole has not only great stuff but also a strong competitive streak and a good idea of how to pitch. Lefty Francisco Liriano gives the Pirates a strong 1-2 punch.
There could be some issues after the top two, however. Jonathon Niese and Ryan Vogelsong were brought in to counter the loss of A.J. Burnett, J.A. Happ and Charlie Morton.
A decent number of teams are starting to put together scary back-end combos in the bullpen these days, but the Pirates are definitely on the short list of which one has the best.
Mark Melancon has been lights out since being installed as the closer midway through the 2013 season, and he led the major leagues with 51 saves in 53 opportunities last year. Lefthander Tony Watson is one of the top setup men in baseball. And it’s not just those two. The Pirates had the best bullpen ERA in the majors last season.
It’s pretty difficult to expect 98 wins again, but it’s unlikely that would be needed for a return trip to the Wild Card. The Pirates are absolutely talented enough to make the playoffs for a fourth consecutive season. But it’s a crowded NL Central, and will another Wild Card be good enough?
Key Additions: SP Jonathon Niese, SP Ryan Vogelsong, 1B John Jaso, 3B David Freese.
Key Losses: 2B Neil Walker, 3B Aramis Ramirez, SP Charlie Morton, SP A.J. Burnett.
The Pirates have plenty of talent to contend in the division, but will need their young players to step up and emerge in order to make up for the production the team lost this offseason. The NL Central will be a dogfight all year, but the Pirates will certainly have their say in the race’s outcome.
Prediction: 95-67
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