If the Pirates are going to climb back into the NL Central race, this weekend would be a good time to start. The fading Pirates have lost seven of their last eight heading into the series against the division-leading and MLB-best Cubs.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
These are trying times for the Pirates, who dropped the last two of a three-game set with the Mets and have just one victory in eight games entering the series with the Cubs. Pittsburgh manager Clint Hurdle has done a masterful job of keeping his team on track over the years, leading the group through adverse conditions to remain a perennial contender.
His squad is being tested as the Pirates continue through a brutal stretch in their schedule. The pitching has struggled and ace Gerrit Cole is on the disabled list. Andrew McCutchen hasn’t looked like Andrew McCutchen at the plate. Now the Pirates visit the Cubs, who have won five of six meetings this year, outscoring Pittsburgh 38-13 and cashing the over five times.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Jonathon Niese (6-3, 4.60 ERA) had his month-long roll screeched to a halt against the Cardinals on Sunday when he allowed eight runs on 11 hits and two homers in 5.1 innings. The runs and hits were both season-highs allowed and Niese, who had been brilliant in his previous five starts, couldn’t stop the Bucs’ slide. He had posted a 1.74 ERA over 31 innings in five starts heading into Sunday.
The Cubs clobbered Niese for nine hits and six runs while drawing five walks during his five-inning outing on May 3. Niese was saddled with the loss in a 7-1 Cubs victory. The lefty has faced Chicago 11 times during his career with a 3-7 record and 5.23 ERA.
Jon Lester (8-3, 1.89 ERA) was superb once again in Sunday’s 13-2 win over the Braves. He allowed just an unearned run on five hits over seven innings while striking out seven in the rout. The lefty has won his last four starts, posting a 0.59 ERA with 33 strikeouts in 30.1 innings over that stretch. His control has been impeccable all year and more so in his past three starts where he has not walked a batter.
Lester is the only Cubs hurler to lose a game to the Pirates this year, though he was nasty in the effort. He allowed just two hits and a run with nine strikeouts but took a 2-1 loss on May 15. He had better results on May 4, blanking the Bucs on eight hits over 5.2 frames in a 6-2 victory. Lester has a 0.73 ERA in those games.
LIVE BETTING
If there is a weak link on the Cubs this season the ideal answer would be the bullpen; even though the relievers have been pretty good for the most part. And if recent talk is any indication, management feels the club could use an upgrade in that area also. Now is the time when trade rumors start to swirl and the names widely mentioned headed to Chicago include Yankee relievers Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller.
After Wednesday’s loss in Washington, the rumor mill started spinning at a faster rate. Rarely have Cubs relievers allowed leads to slip away, but Wednesday was a bad one. The Cubs led the game on three separate occasions, including advantages in the ninth and 12th innings. But the Nats couldn’t be put down. While Hector Rondon has been great, he blew his second consecutive save opportunity for the first time this season.
QUICK PICK
The Pirates picked the wrong time for a series with the Cubs. Pittsburgh is reeling with seven losses in eight games and has fallen to .500 on the year. The starting rotation is in shambles with Cole on the DL and Liriano and Locke struggling. McCutchen has yet to find his rhythm at the plate and the team’s surprising offensive force, Francisco Cervelli, is out with a broken hand. The good news is Starling Marte is likely back in the lineup after missing time with a facial injury.
But even that won’t be enough against Lester, who has been dominant on the best rotation in baseball. Lester has slammed the door on the Bucs this season and Niese doesn’t have an answer for Chicago’s lineup.
MLB Odds: Chicago 6, Pittsburgh 2
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