The Pirates turn to their ace, Gerrit Cole, to keep them in the postseason hunt as they play the Dodgers in a pivotal middle game of the series at Dodger Stadium. While the Dodgers have surged into a tie for the top spot in the NL West, the Pirates remain on the outside looking in to the wildcard picture.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
With a win on Tuesday night, the Dodgers extended their winning streak to four straight games and tied the Giants for the division lead.
Los Angeles has been playing quite well without their ace Clayton Kershaw which is encouraging news for those looking to back Los Angeles while Kershaw remains shelved, including on Friday.
The Dodgers have now won 16 of their last 25 games and will be home this weekend were they’re 37-21.
The Pittsburgh front office sent the team mixed messages at the trade deadline, dealing away Mark Melancon while adding Ivan Nova. As a result, the Pirates’ results since that point have been mixed, too. After a winning month of July on the heels of a disappointing 9-19 June, the month of August has been just mediocre as Pittsburgh seemed to lose some momentum.
Pittsburgh’s last few series feature a sweep at the hands of Milwaukee and a loss to the Braves. That said, the Pirates did come back to beat the Reds two of three and get out in front of the Padres as of Wednesday.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
It appears that Rich Hill will be taking Ross Stripling’s spot in the rotation on Friday with Brandon McCarthy taking the start on Saturday.
McCarthy missed much of the season due to injury, but has been good since his return, going 2-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.121 WHIP in seven starts, spanning 33 innings of work.
In those innings, McCarthy has struggled with command, walking 19 batters and throwing a pair of wild pitches, but he’s done well keeping the ball in the park and avoiding hard contact. He’s allowed just 18 hits to date and two home runs.
Manager Dave Roberts hasn’t given McCarthy much of a leash of late, though. He’s failed to go more than four innings in any of his last three starts and in that time has allowed seven runs in 10 2/3 innings.
McCarthy will match up against the Pirates’ ace right-hander Gerrit Cole who will be making his 18th start.
Cole enters play with a 7-7 record to go with a 2.94 ERA and 1.265 WHIP in 98 innings. He, too, is doing well avoiding the long ball—and for him, it’s been a much larger sample size. He’s allowed just three homers this year and has a walk rate of 2.6 per nine innings, putting him in a much better position than McCarthy in that area.
Cole’s last start wasn’t particularly great, allowing four runs in five and two-thirds against Cincinnati, but that was just the third time in his 18 starts that he allowed more than three runs in a start here in 2016.
Overall, the matchup seems to favor Pittsburgh, but its notable that the Pirates are just 2-6 in Cole’s last eight starts.
LIVE BETTING
The trade of Melancon weakened what was a major strength of this Pirates’ team. With Melancon, the backend of the pen set up nice with Tony Watson, Neftali Feliz and others in front of him. Now, everyone moves back a spot.
Watson and Feliz should be more than serviceable in the last two innings, but the middle relief is now weakened. That, however, shouldn’t matter too much on Saturday with Cole on the hill. Cole has the ability to go deep in games, though his last couple outings have left four outs left before bridging the gap to the eighth inning.
For the Dodgers, the bullpen is one of the best in the game, posting a 3.07 ERA to rank third in baseball.
Kenley Jansen is one of the best closers in baseball and the rest of the bunch offer a nice blend of length and dominance with pitchers able to matchup given the situation.
Of course, while the saying goes: good pitching beats good hitting. You still need some offense to support the arms.
The Dodgers have that offense clicking. Yasmani Grandal has been great here in the second half with a 1.137 OPS and six home runs. He’s also been particularly strong at home batting .302 with 15 of his 18 homers. He’s hitting a mere .160 on the road. Keep an eye on whether he gets the start here in a day game following the night game.
QUICK PICK
Gerrit Cole and the Pirates backend of the pen give the Pirates a chance, but the offense may not.
McCarthy hasn’t been that reliable since coming off the DL, but while he’s had a number of short outings, manager Dave Roberts has gotten him out of the game before it got out of hand. He’s got the bullpen at his disposal to allow him to do that again on Saturday.
Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has scored the fewest runs in baseball since the All-Star break, plating only 76. Andrew McCutchen, in particular, has been a mess at the dish and overall, the team lacks much real production from anyone outside of Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco. We could see Matt Joyce and Sean Rodriguez who both have had nice years in limited roles.
The offense for the Dodgers is a much better story to tell. Since the break only two teams have outscored them. Howie Kendrick has turned it on along with Grandal. Adrian Gonzalez is hitting the ball with more authority while Corey Seager and Justin Turner continue to produce.
MLB Odds: Dodgers 5, Pirates 3
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