It’s been a down year for both Pennsylvania teams as the Philadelphia Phillies and Pittsburgh Pirates each get set to continue the battle for the state. The Pirates took two of three when they hosted Philly earlier this year. The Pirates will hope to continue their advantage in the middle game of a three-game set on Tuesday.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Phillies have been terrible on the road, but they haven’t been a whole lot better at home, going 14-20.
It’s basically been all downhill for Philadelphia. They started the year 11-9, but are 15-44 since that time. They’ve already cut ties with their biggest offseason acquisition: Michael Saunders. They’ve also bid adieu to their opening day closer, Jeanmar Gomez, who had a 7.25 ERA at the time of his release.
The Pirates season hasn’t been quite as cursed, but this was a team some figured had an outside shot at competing. Of course, losing your best player to a suspension doesn’t help the cause.
Pittsburgh now looks firmly in the seller’s camp as the trade deadline inches closer. That’s primarily due to a 16-23 road record.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Jameson Taillon makes his fifth start since surgery for testicular cancer. He has pitched to a 2.42 ERA since coming back.
The Pirates youngster remains one of the best stories of the season. He’s really blossomed into a top-of-the-rotation arm despite all of adversity.
The 25-year old right-hander is 4-2 with a 2.97 ERA in his 10 starts. He’s thrown 57.2 innings. He’s had some issues with command and has a 1.353 WHIP. His FIP is 3.73 which is still solid, but nearly a full run higher than his ERA.
Taillon three 6.1 scoreless frames in his last start, topping the surprisingly strong Rays’ offense, collecting his fourth win. He allowed seven hits in the games and walked four, but effectively worked his way around the base runners.
The Phillies will counter Taillon with a youngster of their own: Mark Leiter.
The 26-year old right-hander is a rookie this year. He made his Major-League debut in the bullpen, tossing 19 innings in relief to the tune of a 4.74 ERA.
He got the chance to make a couple starts in place of injured Jerad Eickhoff. His first was amazing, his most recent, not so much.
Leiter’s first start came on June 23 against the Diamondbacks. He held Arizona scoreless in six innings, tossing just 81 pitches. He allowed three hits and one walk while striking out five.
The Mariners did a better job against Leiter in his second start. The righty gave up four runs in five innings while tossing 101 pitches.
Over his five-year minor league career, Leiter has been an average starter.
LIVE BETTING
With a 126 OPS+, Andrew McCutchen leads the Pirates on offense. As late as May 23, McCutchen was hitting .200 with a .630 OPS. Now, he’s batting .282 with a .866 OPS. In his last 26 games, he’s hitting like the former MVP with a .407 average, .509 OBP and 1.201 OPS. He’s hit six homers, driven in 22 and collected 13 extra base hits.
McCutchen is playing like a star right now, but the Pirates need more. Josh Bell provides the power. He leads the Pirates with 15 homers, five coming in the last month, but his average is low.
Gregory Polanco is hitting only .206 this month. After a breakout last year, he’s regressed; the league has adjusted. He’ll need to adjust back.
All in all, the Pirates’ offense is flawed and they greatly miss Marte, but at least there’s a star in the middle of the pack and it appears the move back to the third spot, up from sixth, hasn’t hurt his improved swing.
Out of the other dugout, there’s not a guy that can be counted on to carry the team. There’s not even a guy that can be counted on for support.
Howie Kendrick is hitting well, batting .352 in his last 19 games, but he’s not a star. He’s a nice support player and will likely fetch the Phillies a prospect in a deadline deal, but for now, he and perhaps Tommy Joseph, make up the offense. Aaron Altheer is cooled from his hot start. Maikel Franco and Odubel Herrera continue to show flashes here and there, but are both well below average at the dish this year with a 69 and 76 OPS+ respectively.
QUICK PICK
The Pirates aren’t a good team, but they’re better than Phillies. Of course, that doesn’t take much.
Nevertheless, you can still feel confident taking the Pirates in this game. Unlike some members of the Pittsburgh rotation, Taillon is a legit big league pitcher with a bright future and remarkably solid present given his hardships. Look for Taillon to go six strong before turning it over to a pen that has its issues, but at least has a few somewhat reliable arms.
On the other side, Leiter is an unproven starter who had a shaky outing in his last start. The Pirates have a couple sluggers—like McCutchen—who can do some damage and the Phillies’ bullpen offers little in the way of relief outside of Pat Neshek.
MLB Odds: Pirates 7, Phillies 3
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