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If your favorite baseball team isn't playing tonight, make the games more interesting by betting on MLB odds at BookMaker Sportsbook! This is the only online wagering outlet that offers early MLB moneylines, runlines and totals. First pitch for the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals is scheduled for Sunday, June 25, 2017, at 8:08 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium. The contest will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.
ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball strays from the mold some on Sunday, broadcasting a battle of two fringe competitors. To be fair, the stocks of both the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates have fallen since the schedule was set. Nevertheless, this is an intriguing matchup as both hold on to hope in a weak NL Central.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
These teams are neck-and-neck in the standings and each have more than their share of warts.
After starting the year better on the road, the Cardinals have recovered some at home and are 18-18 at Busch Stadium while they’re .500 on the road so home field advantage is real in this game. The Pirates are 14-20 on the road. Of course, the Pirates are 9-8 in June compared to the Cardinals’ 7-12 mark. There is something to be said for playing well now. After all, baseball is a “what have you done for me lately” kind of sport.
Prior to their weekend series, the Pirates and Cardinals had just one other series and St. Louis walked away with the sweep, though just nine total runs were scored in the game.
Neither team’s offense is that great, but with some key players hitting better and St. Louis’ rotation showing a few more issues, more runs are likely.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
With names like Carlos Martinez, Jameson Taillon and Gerrit Cole, there are some interesting pitching matchups to be had between these two teams, but Sunday’s game will feature Chad Kuhl and Mike Leake.
Leake was one of the big stories in April and early May. The right-hander had a dynamic start to the season and was nearly unhittable.
After carrying a 1.91 ERA through his May 24 win over the Dodgers, Leake began regressing. In his next four starts, he allowed 18 runs in 24.2 innings.
A bit of a bounce back his last time out resulted in an 8-1 win over the Phillies as he went six-innings of one-run ball. That’s good, but it was the Phillies after all.
In all, Leake is a solid mid-rotation arm. He gives you a chance to win most games and generally goes deep in games.
Leake has really enjoyed pitching to the Pirates in the past. He’s 10-5 against Pittsburgh as he’s faced the Pirates 29 times, more than any other team. In those 29 starts, he’s pitched 183.1 innings with a 3.29 ERA and 1.249 WHIP.
Whereas Leake leads the Cardinals in rWAR to date, the Pirates cannot say the same for Kuhl. In fact, they cannot even attribute any value above replacement level to the right-hander.
Kuhl was respectable in his 14 starts last year. He was 5-4 with a 4.20 ERA and based on his 99 ERA+, he was pretty close to the definition of average.
Now, he’s basically the definition of replacement level. He’s now made 14 starts this year with very different results. He’s 2-6 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.554 WHIP. He’s allowing more hits, homers and walks than last year. Interestingly, he’s also striking out more.
Kuhl’s last four starts were encouraging, although short. He went just five innings in each. In fact, he hasn’t pitched more than five innings since April 18, so we can assume Leake will at least outlast Kuhl if not outpitch him.
Still, in those 20 innings over his last four starts, he’s allowed eight runs. That’s not great, but does show improvement and some more consistency.
Interestingly, the last time he exceeded five innings was against the Cardinals. In that game, he went six innings, allowing two runs for one of only two quality starts he’s thrown in his 14 outings.
LIVE BETTING
Welcome back, Andrew McCutchen.
Cutch looked done through April and most of May. He wasn’t hitting and looked completely lost at the dish. It was not pretty and it appeared the end had come for the still relatively young former MVP.
Well, what a difference a month makes.
McCutchen is batting .372 with a .455 OBP and .702 slugging percentage in his last 26 games. He’s slammed eight home runs and driven in 23 runs in that time while sporting a staggering 1.157 OPS.
While Cutch is swinging well fellow outfielder Jose Osuna is, too. He’s 14-for-43 over the last 30 days and has a .960 OPS in the month, topped only by McCutchen and Jordy Mercer who has 15 extra base hits in the month with a .404 OBP.
There are some bright spots for the Pirates, but it’s been a dimmer picture for the Cardinals.
Series losses to the Brewers and a struggling Orioles team has extended the slump for the Red Birds.
Matt Carpenter is doing much better in the leadoff spot where he belongs and Dexter Fowler is providing some pop and more OBP in the No.2 spot. The question is: what is there after that?
QUICK PICK
The Pirates are playing better baseball right now. They’re winning more and putting up better bullpen and offensive numbers in the month of June.
We’ve seen the Cardinals sweep the Pirates already and that’s hard to ignore, as is the superior pitching matchup and the home field advantage, but Kuhl is throwing better lately while Leake has been regressing.
Look for neither pitcher to factor into the decision with this game being close until the end, with the bullpens ultimately being the deciding factor. Given St. Louis’ latest woes, take the Pirates to win.
MLB Odds: Pirates 6, Cardinals 5
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