In the middle game of this weekend’s interleague matchup in Arlington, the Rangers will welcome Yu Darvish back to the Major Leagues after his long and arduous rehab schedule.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
This weekend series will pin two second place teams against each other, each five games over .500 as of Tuesday.
Similar records aside, the Rangers have been the better bet this year with a total money of $966 compared to the Pirates’ $253. Texas is also at home for this series where they’re 14-8. Pittsburgh’s road mark is 12-10.
WHEN THE PITTSBURGH PIRATES ARE AT THE PLATE
The Pirates will face Darvish who’s making his first MLB start since August 2014.
The ace righty could be rusty, though he looked sharp in his rehab starts. Even if he’s on his game, the Rangers will watch him closely and keep him on a strict pitch count. The Pirates will use that to their advantage if he’s close to his former self.
Once Darvish exits, the Pirates can get to work. Their bullpen is the worst in the American League based on ERA. The pen has struggled so much that they’ve already had to use 14 arms in relief and have replaced their closer who had a 8.44 ERA in 16 innings.
As an offense, the Pirates are one of those teams that are better than the names on the scorecard. Pittsburgh has scored more runs than 24 other clubs and that’s with former MVP Andrew McCutchen hitting just .249.
With the return of Jung Ho Kang, who already has five home runs in 13 games, the Pirates have 10 different players with an OPS of at least .727. Of the team’s starters, the only player that doesn’t have an OPS that high is Francisco Cervelli. The catcher hasn’t shown much power this year with no homers and just five extra base hits, but he’s doing an excellent job on defense and has an OBP of .373.
For most teams, you can watch a couple batters and see how well the offense will do that day, but for the Pirates, they’ve got a nice well-oiled machine of a lineup that produces top to bottom.
Instead, keep close watch on Darvish. He’s got a wide array of pitches, but needs the movement on all of them to have success. Watch to see if the ball is as live as it usually is out of his hand. If so, be skeptical backing the Pirates, though if the game is close when he leaves the game, it’s fair to bet against the Texas bullpen.
WHEN THE TEXAS RANGERS ARE AT THE PLATE
Pittsburgh hasn’t announced its starters for the Rangers’ series, but Saturday should be Juan Nicasio’s start unless the right-hander is bumped up due to just a single inning thrown in Sunday’s rainout.
Nicasio is 4-3 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.346 WHIP. He’s had a couple really nice outings, but Pirates’ pitching coach Rey Searage is still working on getting him to be able to repeat his delivery and offer consistency. Against Nicasio, Adrian Beltre is 1-for-3 with a home run.
Texas made a bit of a shake up to the offense this week with the call up of power hitting prospect Joey Gallo. The youngster made his debut last year and showed plenty of power, but a ton of swing and miss as well. He’s cut down on that a bit at the Triple-A level.
Keep an eye on the lineup construction in this game as Gallo could play in the outfield, or spell Prince Fielder or Mitch Moreland, both of whom have struggled to find their stroke.
The Rangers also figure to be without Rougned Odor who should be serving his suspension over the weekend after his hearing related to him punching Jose Bautista last week.
With Odor out, Shin-Soo Choo injured again, Moreland and Fielder still underperforming, it’s amazing this team has scored as many runs as it has. Most of its due to their .300 average with runners in scoring position. The Rangers are able to capitalize on their opportunities. Watch to see if Nicasio is able to limit them.
BETTING TRENDS AND MATCHUPS
Look for John Jaso to be in the lineup on Saturday. He’s one of few hitters who’ve seen the ball well out of Darvish’s hand.
In 22 at bats against him, Jaso is 9-for-22 with a pair of homers, two doubles, and a couple walks, giving him a .458 OBP and 1.231 OPS.
MLB Odds at BookMaker.eu
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