The Texas Ranger remain playoff hopefuls despite a rough first half. Their pitching has gotten healthy and their rotation is the best in the AL amongst teams not currently in playoff position. There’s no doubt that gives them a nice chance at making a run. That run can start this week against a Baltimore Orioles team that makes any offense look lights out as the starting pitching is essentially bleeding runs early.
This series will be contested from Monday, July 17, 2017 through Thursday, July 20, 2017 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore. Thursday’s showdown will be broadcast live on MLB Network for those outside the local viewing area.
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Pitching Matchups
It no longer matters who the Orioles send to the mound, it’s bound to end in a ton of early runs for the opposition.
Baltimore has completely collapsed over the last couple months and most the blame rests on a starting rotation ranked dead last in baseball in ERA.
Chris Tillman will open the series for the Birds. He’s 1-5 with a 7.90 ERA and 2.143 WHIP in his 11 starts. He’s totaled just 49 innings.
The veteran right-hander was supposed to be the ace of this staff, but he started the season injured and has yet to look the same since returning to the rotation. Now, he comes back after a stint on the paternity list. Perhaps that, plus the extra days due to the All-Star break, was enough to allow him to disengage and get his head back into the game.
Of course, that seems like a lot to ask. He’s at least been better at home than on the road, but he’s still just 1-3 with a 5.88 ERA at home and that’s certainly not going to cut it.
Meanwhile, the Rangers will counter with right-hander Andrew Cashner. The righty was a curious sign in the offseason, but he’s been more than serviceable. In total, he’s tossed 14 games, going just 4-7, but pitching to a 3.54 ERA. With a 1.426 WHIP and 4.52 FIP, the righty appears to have gotten lucky so far, but he’s still pitching far better than Tillman. His 4.31 ERA over his last eight starts still puts him well ahead of the O’s righty.
As the series progresses the two teams will each turn to a bit of an experiment. For the Orioles, that’s Dylan Bundy. Tyson Ross pitches for Texas.
Bundy was healthy for the first time in forever last year and transitioned from the bullpen into the rotation. The former top prospect brought a lot of hype coming into the year and he showed well early, but has regressed.
Bundy’s already matched the number of innings he threw all last year so further regression seems likely as he fatigues. That said, the extra time off due to the break could at least delay that a bit.
Bundy’s last start was bad. He allowed six runs against Minnesota in that game, but he’s still the team leader in wins and ERA, even if that ERA is 4.33.
As for Ross, he’s made five starts since coming off the DL. He was an All-Star pitcher in San Diego, but his injury is significant. He’s only 2-1 with a a5.33 ERA since coming off the DL. He’s walked 13 in 25.1 innings while striking out just 18.
He’s particularly struggled with runners on. Fortunately, the Orioles are more off an all-or-nothing team without a great OBP.
In the last two games of the series, the Rangers will turn to a couple southpaws in Martin Perez and Cole Hamels.
Hamels is key for Texas if they’re going to work their way back into playoff contention. He’s been good when healthy and is 4-0 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in his nine starts, spanning 59 innings.
As for Perez, he’s not been great, but his ERA+ is still 101, making him an average starter. The only O’s pitcher to put up league average numbers is Bundy and he’ll throw earlier in the series. Kevin Gausman would be on turn to pitch Wednesday with Wade Miley on the hill Thursday, but both looked mighty shaky in their first starts since the break.
Who's Hot?
The Orioles have fallen out of the race in the AL due largely to the starting pitching, but the offense has been a letdown, too, after leading the league in homers over the last five years.
Baltimore’s offense is built around the likes of Manny Machado, Adam Jones and Chris Davis, all of whom have been league average per OPS+. The players leading the team are, instead, Jonathan Schoop and Trey Mancini with a 133 and 134 OPS+ respectively as of Sunday.
Both Schoop and Mancini has been hitting the ball well over the team’s last 30-days just as they have all year. Schoop is batting .320 in his last 25 games with seven homers and 18 RBIs. Mancini is hitting .323 with 10 extra base hits.
Interestingly, Machado has started to heat up too little too late. He’s put together a .862 OPS which is solid—though still not Machado level—over his last 25 games. Another player swinging well is Caleb Joseph who is 13 for his last 24 with a couple homers.
When it comes to pitching, the bullpen still has some strong pieces. Mychal Givens has allowed a single run in 12.1 innings over the last month, Richard Bleier has been great, too, allowing one earned—and three total—in 13 innings.
On the other side of the field, Carlos Gomez has shown the power in his last 22 games, slamming eight homers and driving in 19 RBIs. Despite those power numbers, he has struck out 40 time in those games.
One player that doesn’t strikeout much is Adrian Beltre. He’s posted a .394 OBP while hitting seven homers and driving in 23 in his last 25 games. He’s only struck out 10 times in those games, helping to put the ball in play and move runs over and in even when creating an out. Contrary to popular belief, a strikeout can be more harmful than an ordinary out in the right circumstance.
Overall, this is a power laden team with little average, but the team can draw walks and get on base enough to counteract the strikeouts and the low averages provided the pitching is doing its job.
Who's Not?
On the downside for the Orioles is every starting pitcher on the team; each and every one.
Of course, that’s already known so let’s call out all of the strikeouts, too. Schoop and Mancini are striking out a ton, but their production has made it a solid trade-off.
Mark Trumbo is a big offender on the strikeouts, too, and he’s heated up a little, but one player that hasn’t is Welington Castillo. A possible deadline target for a few teams, Castillo is quickly depleting his value. He’s batting .158 in his last 16 games. Hyun Soo Kim is another O’s player struggling.
The O’s outfield defense remains an issue for this team as well which doesn’t help a weak rotation.
The Rangers’ pitching woes are more in the pen than in the rotation. The bullpen has gotten much better than it was in April, but Matt Bush is 0-3 with three blown saves in his last 11 games, pitching to a 6.10 ERA.
Joey Gallo’s average has begun dropping even more, too. He’s never going to win a batting title, but his sub-.200 average is down to .146 over his last 20 games and he’s only provided three bombs to help counter act that.
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