The Tampa Bay Rays have gotten off to a pretty strong start playing its first three series of the year against fellow AL East foes in New York and Toronto. The Rays will head to Fenway Park next to take on in the team most people have as the cream-of-the-crop in that division: the Boston Red Sox. These two squads will square off in a three game set beginning on Friday night.
This series will be contested from Friday, April 14, 2017 through Sunday, April 16, 2017 at Fenway Park in Boston. Sunday's clash is being shown live on MLB Network.
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Pitching Matchups
Chris Archer will open this series on the mound for the Rays after a really good showing in the World Baseball Classic and back-to-back quality starts to kick off the season.
Archer led baseball with 19 losses last year and struggled to a 4.02 ERA, but he still pitched 201.1 innings and still had a very strong strikeout ratio. He was a good bet to bounce back this year and the 28-year old right-hander has done just that so far this season. He’s pitched 14.2 innings to lead the league and has allowed only four runs on 12 hits, walking four.
Making the start more impressive, he hasn’t accomplished these numbers against terrible offenses. He’s faced the Yankees and Blue Jays though Boston will be an even bigger test on Friday given his career struggles at Fenway Park to the tune of a 7.30 ERA in five career starts there.
The matchup on Friday also doesn’t do Archer any favors as he matched up against reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Rick Porcello.
Porcello has looked more like the Tigers’ version of himself than the Cy Young version from last year in his first two starts. He’s getting some strikeouts, but he’s already given up 17 hits in his 12.1 innings.
Saturday’s game will feature the Sox’s true ace: Chris Sale as he matches up against the Rays’ Jake Odorizzi. Odorizzi, like Archer, has struggled at Fenway with a 6.08 ERA in eight starts. He did get his first win his last time out and has done well limiting base runners in his first two starts, but has given up three home runs which could be a problem heading into Fenway with the Green Monster breaking down your neck in leftfield.
Sale, meanwhile, looks almost more dominant than last year despite the pressures of pitching for the BoSox. He’s reverted back to his power stuff after sacrificing a bit of the strikeouts to try and get more length last year. He’s already recorded 17 strikeouts in two starts and has 14.2 innings pitched, just two runs allowed and only eight hits.
Sunday is the only day the Rays will send a pitcher to the mound that’s actually had success at Fenway. Alex Cobb, finally healthy, has three wins in four starts at the home of the Sox with a 2.28 ERA.
In two starts in 2017, we’ve seen Cobb face the Yankees twice, going 5.2 innings giving up one run and then going 7.1 innings allowing five. One thing we haven’t seen, however, is the devastating curve ball that made him one of the league’s better pitchers before missing the 2015 season.
Cobb figures to matchup with Drew Pomeranz who held the Orioles to one run on four hits in six quality innings on Tuesday. The Sox southpaw was an All-Star for the Padres last year, but wasn’t nearly the same guy after coming over to Boston. Was that a result of the league switch or was that fatigue? It’s hard to know, but if his first start of 2017 is any indication, he may just be back to the first half version of Pomeranz from last year.
Bullpen Breakdown
The depth of the Red Sox’s offense is well documented—even with Jackie Bradley Jr. on the disabled list. Meanwhile, the power—and now speed with Kevin Kiermaier and Mallex Smith—has the Rays as an offense that can be dangerous, though they’ve been a bit spotty with most of the lineup off to cold starts.
Boston wins this matchup based on the lineups and the starting pitching, as noted above, favors Boston, too, as Archer and Odorizzi have both been less than stellar in Fenway. One area that the Rays may be able to gain an advantage, however, is in the bullpen.
Boston is still waiting for Carson Smith to get healthy after dealing for him before last year. They’re also waiting on Tyler Thornburg who they added this past offseason in a deal that sent Travis Shaw—their backup plan to Pablo Sandoval—to the Brewers.
Thornburg was supposed to be the setup man to Craig Kimbrel, replacing the departing Koji Uehara. Instead, Matt Barnes has admirably slid into that role, tossing 4.2 scoreless to date, but that’s left the middle innings vulnerable. Heath Hembree has the most appearances, but he’s given up a pair of runs in 3.1 innings. Other that, the rest of the pen has been pretty lights out. Overall, the pen has pitched 18.1 innings, giving up three runs.
The Rays have actually given up six earned runs in 18.2 innings. Boston has statistically been twice as good in the pen as Tampa Bay so far, but this is all dealing in very small sample sizes.
Most of the struggles for Tampa Bay has been from Austin Pruitt who has allowed all but one of the pen’s runs in 2.1 innings. Alex Colome, Jumbo Diaz, Tommy Hunter and Danny Farquhar have all been nearly lights out as has Erasmo Ramirez. And, three of those pitchers have at least 16 career saves.
Park Factor
Of course, Fenway Park is a legend in its own right, but the dimensions of the stadium are like no other. There’s an easy home run to be had right down the right-field line, but otherwise, right-center and dead centerfield are deep while the wall in left-field can take away line drives that may go out in other stadiums, but is otherwise a close, easy target for right-handed bats.
Mookie Betts has feasted at home. While he’s an All-Star player whether at home or away, Betts has a career OPS of .902 at Fenway, but a .801 mark in any other stadium. Likewise, Xander Bogaerts is a .309 hitter at Fenway with a .367 OBP and .449 slugging. He’s hitting just .261 on the road with a .307 OBP and .371 slugging.
For the Rays, Evan Longoria has hit very well at Fenway. His career OPS there is actually higher than it is at home as he hits .277 with a .861 OPS at Fenway. He’s hit 16 career home runs and driven in 50 RBIs at the Sox’s home stadium. That’s more than he has at any other ballpark other than Tropicana Field and Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
Interestingly, given the favorable dimensions for right-handed hitters at Fenway, southpaws can sometimes have issues, given the opposition’s tendency to stack right handed hitters when playing lefties, but Boston is the team throwing two lefties in this series not Tampa Bay who will go with all three right-handed hurlers.
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