The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays each ended their latest series with a win as New York held the top wildcard spot and the Rays kept in the race for the second position. Given both teams are in the thick of the playoff push, this will be a big series for both squads. Each sit only a couple games back of the Red Sox in the AL East, too.
This series will be contested from Thursday, July 27, 2017 through Sunday, July 30, 2017 at Yankee Stadium in New York.
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Pitching Matchups
With the trade deadline approaching, the pitching matchups could shake up between now and the end of the series. That’s particularly true for the Yankees who are rumored to be heavily involved in trade discussions with the A’s for Sonny Gray and Yonder Alonso.
New York has plenty of pieces to move in such a trade, including Estevan Florial and Jorge Mateo who are the likely centerpieces to the deal.
If Gray—or someone else—becomes a Yankee, he’s likely to unseat Caleb Smith who is slated to start on Saturday. The rest of the Yankee rotation for the weekend features C.C. Sabathia on Thursday, Masahiro Tanaka on Friday and Jordan Montgomery on Sunday. The Rays will matchup with Chris Archer on Thursday, Blake Snell on Saturday and Jacob Faria on Sunday. Friday’s start would be Jake Odorizzi’s turn, but he’s now on the DL.
As for the Yankees’ starters, Smith is the weak link. That’s a clear open spot in the rotation with Luis Cessa and Chad Green making starts in that spot, too. Green has been too valuable in the pen to mess with while Cessa hasn’t been that great in his chances. Smith, meanwhile, allowed four runs in less than four innings in his first big league start.
Luis Severino is New York’s best starter right now, but he won’t be in this series, but Sabathia will. The former ace has re-invented himself as a gritty veteran and is 9-3 with a 3.44 ERA in his 16 starts. Health has been his only issue. Otherwise, the southpaw has been reliable.
Montgomery has been reliable, too. The rookie right-hander has outperformed expectations and is 7-5 with a 3.92 ERA. He matches up against a more impressive rookie in Faria. The Ray’s youngster got the call in early June has had made nine starts, recording eight quality starts including a 7.1 innings outings last time out. He’s 5-1 with a 2.67 ERA.
The only other starter to throw for the Yankees in this series will be Masahiro Tanaka who, unlike Sabathia and Montgomery, has been anything but consistent.
Tanaka is the ace of this staff, even with is inflated ERA at 5.37 and his 7-9 record. Tanaka has shown flashes of his old self with a few good games, but has been spotty overall and bad on occasion, too. Lately, he’s been better, but he’s still lost his last two decisions.
For the Rays, Archer comes into the game with a 7-6 record and 3.77 ERA. His FIP is even better at 3.09. He showed his best stuff in his last start, delivering his fifth straight quality start albeit in a loss.
As for Snell, the young southpaw is -6 with a 4.86 ERA in 12 starts. He’s been below replacement level in his time in the Majors, but has been better in July. He’s allowed six runs and 13 hits in 16 innings. He has still struggled with command, giving up eight walks and two homers.
Bullpen Brilliance
Per the numbers, the Yankees have a much better bullpen than the Rays, giving the advantage late in the game. The Yankees’ team bullpen ERA is 3.36, the fourth best in baseball. The Rays sit at 4.37, ranking No. 21.
Those numbers, however, may be a bit off. The Yankees have seen Aroldis Chapman scuffle a bit lately. The flamethrower has recorded a save in his last two appearances, but he’s still not striking out people at the clip we’re used to seeing. On the year, Chapman has 38 strikeouts in 26.2 innings, but he’s struck out just four over his last seven appearances, totaling six innings.
Beyond Chapman, the Yankees beefed up their pen a week ago in re-acquiring David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle. They’ll help set up Chapman and take pressure off Dellin Betances who himself hasn’t been—well—himself. He surrendered a run in his last appearance.
For the Rays, Alex Colome is a legitimate closer. He’s saved 29 games. Tommy Hunter has been surprisingly strong in a setup up role, though he’s always susceptible to the longball against the lefty.
Brad Boxberger and Sergio Romo give the Rays a couple other arms with closer experience, but they’re on the comeback trail.
There’s no question the Yankees’ remade pen is deeper than the Rays. Of course, the Rays rotation is deeper than the Yankees.
Powering the Offense
The Yankees’ offense has slowed way down in July. They’re second in the AL in runs scored to Houston overall, but in July the only AL teams to score fewer runs than New York are the Angels, White Sox, Blue Jays and Rays.
Tampa Bay’s offensive cool down hasn’t been as pronounced as the Yankees’, but it’s significant, too.
The Rays have been belting homers all year long. The homers have slowed and, thus, so have the runs for Tampa Bay.
Back to the Yanks, Aaron Judge has been the catalyst for the team all year. His strikeouts are ticking up with 31 in 20 July games. He’s still hitting .246 in the month with five homers, but is just 7-for-41 with two homers and 18 strikeouts in 12 games since the All-Star break.
Matt Holliday and Gary Sanchez have also seen their bats go silent since the break. The only New York bat really hitting well since the time off is Didi Gregorius who has five homers and is 18-for-45 since the time off.
For the Rays, Steven Souza Jr.’s offense is still going strong. He’s hit four homers since the break. Evan Longoria is hitting well, too. Logan Morrison, on the other hand, carried this offense at time in the first-half, but is ice cold.
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