The Boston Red Sox have risen to the top of the AL East and now boast the second-best record in league. They’ll look to protect their position in the standings when taking on the Texas Rangers in a three-game series, beginning on Monday. The Rangers have been the definition of mediocrity this year, lounging in the wildcard race more because of a lack of quality teams than anything Texas can do.
This series will be contested from Monday, July 3, 2017 through Wednesday, July 5, 2017 at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The games on Monday and Tuesday can be seen on ESPN.
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Pitching Matchups
The Red Sox will turn to their two struggling aces to kick off the series. Rick Porcello starts on Monday with David Price taking the hill in Tuesday’s game. Doug Fister will close out the series on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the Rangers will get a couple starters back from the DL for this series. Martin Perez and Andrew Cashner are both set to get starts, bookending the series with Yu Darvish facing Price in the middle game.
For Monday’s game, Porcello will look to take advantage of a team he’s had past success against. He’s 4-2 with a 3.19 ERA in his career against Texas and has looked better in his last two starts. For the right-hander, it’s all about the sinker. The rest of his repertoire builds off that pitch. It’s been better of late.
So, while there’s hope he could be getting back on track, he’s still just 4-10 with a 5.06 ERA and a 1.514 WHIP in his 17 starts. He’s been below average per ERA+ which puts him at 91, though his FIP of 3.99 indicates some of that has been luck. He’s been giving up a ton of base hits while his walk rate is only 1.8 per nine innings.
While Porcello’s BABIP against is inflated, some of that is more a result of hittable pitches. He’s being hit hard as evidence by his 17 home runs allowed.
On the other side, Martin Perez’s number are like Porcello’s overall. He’s 4-6 with a 4.70 ERA though he’s had much more trouble missing outside the strike zone. Perez was throwing the ball better before his injury, but will be tested on Monday. He’s struggled in his career against Boston with a 6.12 ERA in six starts.
Moving to Tuesday, Darvish has the edge over Price. These two offer the biggest names for either side. Darvish will face Boston for the first time since coming back from his injury. The same is true for Price.
Darvish is just 6-6 this year, pitching in some bad luck. His ERA is 3.11 with a 1.084 WHIP. He gives up his share of walks, but generally works out of trouble with dynamic stuff. He’s just 1-4 in his last seven starts, but does have a 3.53 ERA in that time. Interestingly, he’s pitched better on the road than at home.
As for Price, he’s coming off a start where he allowed three runs in seven innings against the Twins. This was one of his better starts of the year. He’s struggled since coming off the DL and has had some issues with the Boston media, making him a target for his own team’s fan base.
His 3-2 record and 4.61 ERA this year could be attributable to his injury and missing Spring Training, but even dating back to last year, the 31-year old has been rather pedestrian in a Red Sox’s uniform with a 4.08 ERA. He is, however, 20-11.
Wrapping up the series, Fister will be making his third start for Boston. He’s pitched well enough to keep the Sox in the game in the first two games and Boston will hope for the same on Wednesday. To do that, he’ll need to exhibit better command.
As for Cashner, he’s just trying to pick up where he left off before injury. The right-hander has a 3.87 ERA in 13 starts, his best ERA since 2014. He’s just 3-7 despite that ERA and has walked four batters per nine innings. Given Fister’s issues with the strike zone, too, we could see a good number of free passes in this game.
Offensive Comparison
These offenses have scored nearly the same number of runs, with Texas holding a slight edge, but how they’ve gotten there is completely different.
The Rangers are amongst the more powerful teams in baseball with 122 homers, fifth most in the sport. They’re an all-or-nothing offense with power, but little average of on-base ability. They’re hitting just .240 with a .314 OBP.
On the other side, the Red Sox have hit the fewest homers in the American League, belting just 80 long balls. Despite that, they’re still a pretty solid offense. That comes on the ability to manufacture runs, hitting .267 with a .339 OBP. In terms of team OPS, the Sox hold the edge at .757 to .740.
What makes the Sox even more deadly is that they still hold the potential for more power. They showed it last year and while the loss of David Ortiz is huge, Mitch Moreland is the main replacement and he’s second on the team in bombs.
Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez and Andrew Benintendi all figure to show more power in the second half than the first and that could easily begin this week.
As for the Rangers, their power is real. Mike Napoli, Rougned Odor and Joey Gallo all have huge power, but they are also hitting .192, .211 and .193 respectively. Yes, Elvis Andrus is batting .301 and yes Carlos Gomez, Nomar Mazara and Shin-Soo Choo all have OBP of .330 or better, but in total, there’s just too much swing and miss for this team to be consistent at the plate. That’s why they’ve been so streaky. If a pitcher cannot make his pitches, they can make him pay, but most of this lineup can be retired if the pitcher locates.
Bullpen Breakdown
Simple answer: The Red Sox have the advantage here, too, with more consistency. Craig Kimbrel is back to being one of—if not the—best closers in baseball. He’s got a 0.477 WHIP and .042 FIP, meaning that his 1.01 ERA is over-inflated for how he’s pitched to this point. He’s striking out near two batters every inning.
What makes this pen even better is the arms that are available to bridge the gap from the rotation to Kimbrel. Joe Kelly has emerged as a dominant setup man, pitching to a 1.07 ERA. His FIP is a bit more inflated than that and his strikeout rate is surprisingly low. His triple-digit fastball should garner more Ks, but it’s been effective enough to get the outs.
The Rangers’ pen has been an issue for the team all year. Sam Dyson really set this team back, but Matt Bush—while better—is still pitching to a 4.03 ERA in the closer’s role. He’s allowing one and a half base runners per inning and has given up five homers in 29 innings. There are answers in this pen, but not nearly as many as there are in Boston.
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