The Boston Red Sox may have won the AL East, but the team will still have to match up against a 100-win team in the Houston Astros. These two squads should be extremely familiar with each other after a four-game series over the weekend. Houston took three of four in that series and seem poised to replicate that come the start of the ALDS later this week. Houston is playing great ball and boasts the superior depth around the diamond.
This series will begin on Thursday, October 5, 2017 at Minute Maid Park in Houston, the series will transition to Fenway Park for Game 3. The American League Division Series will be broadcast nationally on Fox Sports 1.
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Starting Pitching Matchups
October is the time for aces to match up and dynamic pitching matchups to emerge, but it’s hard to expect one better than we’re getting on Thursday in Houston with Chris Sale and Justin Verlander.
Sale is 17-8 with a 2.90 ERA and 0.970 WHIP. He’s the league leader in innings, strikeouts, FIP and strikeouts per nine innings. He will finish in the top-2 in Cy Young Award voting alongside Corey Kluber.
Sale’s season has been phenomenal, but the first half was clearly better than the second half. In his career, Sale’s been a better first half pitcher and we’ve seen very little of the lefty in the postseason given his history with the White Sox.
Adding to the concern for Sale, he allowed five runs in five innings in his last start and allowed four runs in 5.2 innings two starts prior. In between those two starts, however, he did pitch eight scoreless against a powerful Baltimore lineup.
Flipping to Verlander, his overall season hasn’t matched Sale. Verlander was likely cheated out of a Cy Young Award last year, but he’s down the list of candidates in 2017. Nevertheless, he’s been throwing much better lately.
Since his trade to the Astros, Verlander is 5-0 in five starts while pitching to a 1.06 ERA and 0.647 WHIP. He’s allowed just 17 hits and five walks in 34 innings while striking out 43. He looks like the 2011 vintage version of Verlander right now.
What bumps Verlander ahead of Sale is his wealth of postseason experience. In 16 starts, he’s got a 3.39 ERA.
After Game 1, the rotation questions start piling up for both squads. On the Red Sox’s side, who will follow up Sale?
Drew Pomeranz has had the next best season. He’s 17-6 with a 3.32 ERA though his WHIP is higher than you’d like at 1.353 as he’s walked 69 batters in 173.1 innings of work. Another issue is his declining velocity. He looked good in his last start and his velocity ticked up a bit, but he’s not been one to go deep into seasons in his career. He could easily be fatigued.
Beyond Pomeranz, Rick Porcello is pitching like the 2015 version rather than the 2016 version. He’s 11-17. He’s managed to lose 17 times on a team that won the AL East. His ERA is 4.65 and his FIP is 4.60. He hasn’t been unlucky. Run support is not an issue. He’s just been bad. He’s been incredibly hittable. He’s allowed 38 home runs and no team can hit home runs top to bottom like the Astros.
Beyond those three, if a fourth starter is needed Doug Fister and Eduardo Rodriguez are the other options. Fister has the experience, E-Rod as the stuff. Neither are great options and neither are trending in the right direction.
While also full of questions, the Astros’ options beyond Verlander are a bit better than the Sox’s beyond Sale.
Dallas Keuchel is a proven ace and a good option as the No. 2. After a Cy Young performance in 2015 and a struggle in 2016, Keuchel has bounced back to go 14-5 with a 2.90 ERA and 1.119 WHIP in his 23 starts.
Keuchel was lights out in the early part of the year and then struggled with healthy issues. He looks to back on track after a strong September where he’s pitching to a 2.87 ERA. As always, Keuchel is nearly lights out at home and will get a chance to start at Minute Maid Park. He’s 8-2 this year.
Given Lance McCullers Jr.’s struggles in his start against Boston on Saturday, he seems like a longshot to make a start in this series. The last two spots—should two more spots be needed—may be Brad Peacock and Charlie Morton. Fortunately, A.J. Hinch has options.
McCullers is the one with the stuff. He hasn’t had enough time to rehab. Peacock and Morton have beoth been dependable. Morton is 14-7 with a 3.62 ERA. Peacock is 13-2 with a 3.00 ERA. You cannot complain about those numbers. Meanwhile, Collin McHugh is another starting option.
Offensive Comparison
The Astros have the best offense in baseball. They’ve outscored the next highest team in runs scored by 35 and have a team OPS of .825.
Houston has out homered nearly every team and have dominated in extra base hits, topping the charts in doubles. They’re not one-dimensional either. They have a combined .282 average and .346 OBP. As a team, they’re getting on base 34.6-percent of the time. How is that possible?
By comparison, Boston—a patient team with as many walks as anyone—has a .330 OBP which is still very strong. As far as average, homers and doubles, the Sox trail the Astros quite considerably.
In a season where home runs are being hit at a record breaking rate across the league, the Sox haven’t been invited to the party. In fact, Boston is dead last in the AL in homers. It’s not like power bats are not there in Boston, but they’re not producing.
Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Xander Boagarts, Dustin Pedroia, Hanley Ramirez and Mitch Moreland have all been league average offensive players. As a result, that’s exactly what this lineup is: league average.
Right now, Rafael Devers has the best numbers. He and Eduardo Nunez were midseason spark plugs for this offense, but he’s regressed some and Nunez is injured.
In Houston, Jose Altuve has been worth 8.4 rWAR thanks to excellent defense up the middle and amazing offense. The second baseman is batting .347 and combines power with speed. He has 24 homers, 39 doubles and 32 steals.
From one through nine in the lineup every day, anyone can go yard, anyone can collect a big hit and anyone can score the big run.
Josh Reddick is expected back for Game 1 of the ALDS. While Jake Marisnick remains out, the Astros are still nine deep in players with at least a 110 OPS+ and at least 325 plate appearances.
Bullpen Breakdown
Based on pure numbers, the Red Sox have had the second base bullpen in baseball. The unit has produced a 3.11 ERA. That’s hard to beat. By comparison, the Astros’ unit ranks in the middle of the pack with a 4.29 ERA.
So, do the Sox have a bullpen more than a run per nine better than the Astros? The short answer is: no.
Craig Kimbrel is a lights-out closer and when he comes in, the game is over. The Astros cannot say that with such certainty about Ken Giles. He’s been good, but not Kimbrel-good.
On the year, Kimbrel is 5-0 with a 1.43 ERA and 35 saves. He’s posted a 1.41 FIP and 0.681 WHIP. He doesn’t walk many and gives away nearly no hits. He is nearly unhittable with 126 strikeouts and only 69 innings of work.
If the starter gets to the ninth, it’s over; the Red Sox win. The gap to get to Kimbrel is where it could get interesting. Addison Reed has allowed a couple homers this month. Joe Kelly still cannot strikeout anyone out despite hitting triple-digits. His fastball has velocity, but is too flat. Those travel a long way in big games.
One argument on the Sox’s side is David Price. He’ll be in the pen, but how much of an impact can a guy like him have? He’s a starter, he needs to come in with a clean inning and he needs to have ample time to warm up.
With the Astros, Giles has more depth ahead of him. Surprisingly, Fransisco Liriano has taken to his new role the last few times out. Chris Devenski is a poor man’s Andrew Miller with his versatility. Tyler Clippard is a bit sketchy, Luke Gregorson has struggled, but these are veteran guys who’ve done in October.
Quick Pick
In the end, the Red Sox’s pitching is concerning. Can David Price really be effective in the pen given short warm up times? Can he be used in back-to-back days? Can Drew Pomeranz be a good No. 2 even with some velocity issues lately? Can Rick Porcello step up? Can the offense produce consistently even with several players having down years? That’s a lot of questions. The Astros have fewer questions and more certainties. Yes, the rotation is still a concern, but Houston trumps the Sox on offense in a major way. They’re deeper and more powerful. They also have a better one-two punch in the rotation. The Sox bullpen could keep them in this series, but it’s got issues of its own when you break it down.
MLB Odds: Astros over Red Sox in Four
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