One of the early surprises this season, the Cincinnati Reds now find themselves back several games below-.500 as they get set to head to the City of Brotherly Love to take on the Philadelphia Phillies who are currently pulling up the rear in a very shallow NL East division. Neither team is playing great baseball right now, though the pitching short Reds at least have the advantage—on paper—in the other aspects of the game.
This series will be contested from Friday, May 26, 2017 through Sunday, May 28, 2017 at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.
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Pitching Matchups
The Phillies have gone 4-20 in their last 24 games, but based on the starting pitching they may have a chance at a couple wins if they can get to the Reds pitching early.
Cincinnati’s rotation has been bad. The starter’s ERA this year is 5.95, more than half a run worse than the Marlins who have the second worst starter’s ERA in baseball at 5.17.
While an opportunity sits there for the Phillies, Philadelphia’s rotation hasn’t been a pillar of stability, but with a 5.10 ERA as a unit, they’ve at least produced better results than Cincy.
Of all the pitching match ups this weekend, Friday night’s scheduled starters may be the most mismatched.
Bronson Arroyo will be on the mound for the Reds while the Phillies will look to Aaron Nola. Just looking at the ERAs for the two starters shows the difference. The 23-year old Phillies’ right-hander is 2-1 with a 3.52 ERA in four starts. As for the Reds, Arroyo is 40 and trying to make a comeback. He’s 3-4 with a 6.75 ERA and a 6.96 FIP.
Arroyo doesn’t have much stuff anymore. He’s trying to get by on grit, using smoke and mirrors and as much luck as he can muster. He’s allowed 11 runs over his last 10.1 innings.
Nola missed a month and had a pretty good start upon his return, going seven innings, allowing one run and four hits against the Pirates. Nola has made two career starts against the Reds and they’ve been very good. In 14 innings, Nola’s allowed just two earned runs and struck out 17.
The rest of the weekend will shake out with Scott Feldman and Amir Garrett on the mound on Saturday and Sunday respectively for the Reds. Jerad Eickhoff and Zach Eflin will get those starts for the Fighting Phils.
Feldman has been the closest thing to an ace for the Reds. He’s at least been somewhat consistent with a 3-4 record and 3.99 ERA. His FIP is 4.03 and he’s providing basically just over league average production in the rotation. That’s above and beyond anything they’re getting from anyone else so he’ll be asked to give the bullpen a rest.
He’ll pitch opposite Eickhoff who has yet to record a win in nine starts. He’s 0-5 with a 4.70 ERA, but the peripherals to show he’s outpitched those numbers and has been a bit unlucky. He’s walking a few more batters than he’d like, but the hits have been the biggest issue and his opponent BABIP is high.
On Sunday, the Reds send Garrett to the mound. Garrett was one of the big surprises early as he had several very good starts before being sent to the minors to help limit his innings and his exposure.
The rookie southpaw has been terrible in two starts since his return. Five of his six starts before the demotion were very good, allowing two runs or fewer in six innings or more. Since, he’s had two starts, pitched nine innings, allowing 13 runs on 12 hits, walking five and allowing six home runs, four coming against the Indians in his last start.
Eflin has struggled himself. He’s 0-2 with a 5.36 ERA in seven starts and has been easy to hit. He generally avoids the walks, but has been almost too much in the strike zone. He gives up plenty of home runs and hasn’t been able to strike many out.
Bullpen Comparison
While the Cincinnati rotation has been awful, the bullpen has picked up a bunch of the slack to keep them even flirting with the .500 mark.
The Reds’ pen has the second-best ERA in the NL at 3.18, but they’ve thrown 187 innings, by far the most in baseball. This unit is already over worked and that will bite them in the long run as fatigue will take its toll. For now, the Reds have a good chance to win, if they can make it through five or six innings with the lead.
Raisel Iglesias has been lights out in the closer’s role. He’s able to pitch a couple innings at a time, too. He’s appeared in 19 games with 24.2 innings pitched. He’s pitching to a 0.73 ERA.
Michael Lorenzen, Blake Wood, Drew Storen and Wandy Peralta have all made at least 20 appearances and are a cumulative 6-3. Wood’s ERA of 3.57 is the highest of the group.
The Phillies’ rotation isn’t as bad as the Reds, but their bullpen doesn’t stack up either.
Philadelphia is 6-12 out of the pen and have a 4.65 ERA as a unit. They’re not used nearly as much, but they’re also not nearly as effective.
Surprising Offensive Contributors
The Reds offense, defense and bullpen all create separation between these two teams and are the key reasons the Reds were an early season surprise and the Phillies were not.
While Cincinnati as a team has been better offensively, both have had their surprise performers.
The Reds have gotten more than they’ve bargained for from Zack Cozart and Eugenio Suarez. The infielders have both produced OPS+ numbers of at least 140. Cozart is hitting .340 and has a .420 OBP while building his case as the premier shortstop available on the trade market. Suarez is hitting .296 with 10 home runs and 30 RBIs.
For the Phils, Aaron Altherr continues to hit. The left fielder it batting .305 with a .393 OBP and a .994 OPS.
The Reds have had a bit more around Cozart and Suarez with Joey Votto swinging like, well, Joey Votto along with some pop from Adam Duvall and Scott Schebler. The Phils have basically league average or worse around Altherr.
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