If you squint and turn your head just right, the below-.500 Pittsburgh Pirates are still within shouting distance in the chase for October. While still well on the outside, they Pirates have pulled close enough to avoid a complete sell-off of talent. They’ll take on the Cincinnati Reds in a best of three contest in the aftermath of the non-waiver trade deadline.
This series will be contested from Tuesday, August 1, 2017 through Thursday, August 3, 2017 at PNC Park in Pittsburgh.
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Pitching Matchups
The series opens on Tuesday with an interesting matchup, pinning the Reds’ $100M man in Homer Bailey against Jameson Taillon.
Bailey’s been effectively out of commission since signing his big deal. He’s made seven starts since his return and has been generally underwhelming, going 2-5 with an 8.37 ERA and 2.010 WHIP in 33.1 innings.
Before the injuries, the veteran right-hander was a consistent arm, pitching to a sub-4 ERA from 2012 through 2014. Since then, it’s been a struggle to stay healthy.
Since he’s been back in the Big Leagues, Bailey has had three quality starts and several bad ones, including his last outing. In his last start, the righty gave up seven runs—five earned—on 10 hits over six innings as he gave up blooper after blooper.
While Bailey’s probably a better pitcher than his number suggest, he’s nowhere near Taillon.
The young right-hander is 6-4 with a 4.03 ERA. His WHIP is elevated, but is FIP is 3.23 indicating a bit of bad luck.
The youngster has battled through some bad fortune, including testicular cancer earlier this year, but has shown an ability to maintain his composure.
Taillon is coming off a terrible outing where he allowed ten runs in three innings. Before that, he had a 3.08 ERA. That’s the true measure of his ability. The loss against the Giants was nothing more than a fluke.
As the series progresses, the matchups get a bit easier for the Reds although Cincinnati’s rotation remains one of the worst in baseball.
On Wednesday, the matchup will feature Robert Stephenson against Trevor Williams with Sal Romano and Chad Kuhl toeing the rubber on Thursday.
For Stephenson, command is a major issue. He’s walked 25 and allowed 10 homers in 34.1 big league innings in 2017. That’s terrible and the Pirates can take advantage. Overall, Stephenson is 0-4 with a 7.86 ERA in 15 games, including just two starts.
Williams has been mediocre at best, but that’s an upgrade over Stephenson. The Buc’s hurler is 4-4 with a 4.53 ERA though he has allowed four runs in four innings against the Reds this year, albeit early on when the Reds were playing their best ball.
For the series finale, Kuhl will head into action at 3-7 with a 4.84 ERA. Those numbers are far from great, but right about on par with Romano who is 2-2 with a 4.57 ERA in five starts.
The rookie Reds hurler has walked 17 batters and allowed three homers in just 21.2 big league innings. He walked six in 3.2 innings in his last start. He had a 3.1 walk per nine inning ratio in Triple-A this year where he posted a 3.47 ERA in 10 starts.
Who's Hot?
Andrew McCutchen is batting .292 with 22 home runs and 66 RBIs. He’s posted a .385 OBP and a .920 OPS thanks, in part, to 44 extra base hits. His 139 OPS+ is right in line with his 138 OPS+ career mark.
The numbers for McCutchen this year are right in line with his career norms, but given his .200 batting average and .631 OPS in late May, his last two months have been ridiculous. On Sunday, he had a particularly good game, going 3-for-4 with three home-runs and a pair of walks.
McCutchen posted a 1.193 OPS in June and followed that up with a 1.101 mark in July. He’s the McCutchen of old, making him hard to pitch to for even the best arms—obviously, none of the Reds’ starters meet that definition.
Along with McCutchen’s hot bat, there are a few other Pirates hitting well since the All-Star break, including Gregory Polanco. Just when the young outfielder looked to be finding his swing, he went down.
Still, Adam Frazier is 14-for-34 since the break with four doubles and a couple walks. Josh Bell has added three homers and 12 RBIs since the break and Jose Osuna is batting .375 in the last couple weeks.
As for the Reds, Scooter Gennett is batting .310 with six homers and 17 RBIs in his las 24 games. In the last month, Joey Votto’s got a Votto-like .438 OBP and has added four homers.
Who's Not?
Like Votto, Adam Duvall has four homers in the last month, but he’s also hitting just .198 and getting on base at a .274 clip during that time. He’s struck out 23 times in 61 at bats.
Scott Schebler has been even worse. The fellow outfielder was part of the solution in the first half, but he’s just 4-for-52 since the All-Star break.
Since the break, the bullpen has fallen apart, too. The Reds’ pen had been very strong early, but overwork due to no real rotation has taken its toll. Since the middle of July, the Michael Lorenzen, Drew Storen and Tony Cingrani have all been anything but dependable. To further cloud the issue, Cingrani is now in L.A.
For the Pirates, the pen hasn’t been the same concern. Felipe Rivero is still lights out though now that Tony Watson is in Los Angeles, the unit has taken a hit on depth.
At the plate, John Jaso is hitless since the break, going 0-for-19. Jordy Mercer has begun to regress, too and Starling Marte has yet to find his groove since his return. He’s shown some speed, but has provided little pop and is just 13-for-52.
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