The Colorado Rockies head to the Big Apple as they kick off the second half of the season on the road with three games against the New York Mets. The Rockies were just 5-13 in their last 18 games before the break. They’ll hope the time away will help them revert to the team that was 21-games over-.500 less than a month ago.
This series will be contested from Friday, July 14, 2017 through Sunday, July 16, 2017 at Citi Field in New York.
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Pitching Matchups
Off his All-Star game snub, Jacob deGrom gets the start on Friday, looking for his sixth consecutive winning start.
deGrom has had the best season of any Mets’ player—let alone pitcher—posting a 2.9 rWAR. He’s been nearly unhittable lately. In his last start, he allowed four runs in seven innings against the Cardinals. That was mediocre, but prior to that, he went four straight starts, allowing a cumulative three runs in 32 innings of work.
Right now, deGrom is giving the Mets quality innings and that’s what they desperately need. Coming off the break, he should be well rested and able to make this a battle.
This year, deGrom is 9-3 overall in 17 games, tossing a 3.65 ERA and 1.216 WHIP in 111 innings of action. He’s striking out 10.5 batters per nine innings, by far his highest total though his walks are also up with 38 so far. His career high is 43.
The Rockies will counter deGrom with their own ace: Jon Gray.
While the rookie rotation was dominating early, Gray was on the DL, but the youngster is back now and may be the best of the bunch.
He’s already seen success—and failure—at the Major-League level so he’s not dealing with that same adjustment most of the rest of the rotation is working on right now.
Gray was 10-10 last year with a 4.61 ERA translating to a 105 ERA+ and 3.60 FIP. That’s a very solid pitcher, particularly at Coors Field. This year, in five starts, Gray is 2-0 with a 3.75 ERA. He’s made two starts since coming off an extended stint on the DL. In those two starts, he’s captured two wins, holding the Diamondbacks to two runs in seven innings and then keeping a very good Reds’ offense to two earned in 5.2 frames.
Gray is a strikeout pitcher and has shown improved command compared to his pre-DL appearances.
The Mets will close out the series with back-to-back starters who spent much of the first half on the shelf, much like Gray did. Seth Lugo starts on Saturday with Steven Matz getting the nod on Sunday.
The tandem is supposed to help this rotation look much better in the second half than it did in the first half and we’re already seeing it from Matz who had strung together 17 scoreless frames before his last start.
Matz had some troubles in his most recent start, allowing five runs in 4.1 innings. He’s still pitching to a 3.06 ERA in his first six starts though he has now already given up seven homers.
Lugo’s had a slower adjustment coming off the DL than Matz. He’s still a solid starter. We saw just how good he can be in the World Baseball Classic. Since coming off the DL, however, he’s 3-2 in six games, pitching to a 4.59 ERA. That’s not great, but much better than most of the staff was producing while he was on the shelf.
To oppose the Mets over the weekend, the Rockies will turn to veteran right-hander Tyler Chatwood on Saturday and then look to rookie right-hander Jeff Hoffman on Sunday.
Chatwood is the rotation’s elder statesman with Tyler Anderson out. He’s just 27, but that’s a grizzled vet compared to the likes of Hoffman and others. In total, Chatwood is a serviceable to a bit above average big league arm. He’s 6-10 with a 4.42 ERA. His issue is command. He’s walked 57 batters in 106 innings. If the Mets can be patient, they can get to him.
Hoffman is a better pitcher, at least based on stuff. He’s 5-1 with a 4.15 ERA, but his FIP is 3.48. It looks like the league has adjusted to him. We’ll see if he can adjust back.
The 24-year old had a 2.25 ERA through his first six games, but has allowed 18 runs in his last four starts, totaling 24.1 innings. Most recently, the White Sox recorded four runs in seven innings against him.
On the positive side for Hoffman, he’s allowed a homer in just one of his last six games. That’s a huge part of the Mets’ offensive attack.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Mets’ had one of the worst rotations in the game in the first half and while the Rockies’ rotation was the early story for this team, the young group hit a bump in the road over the last few weeks which has caused Colorado to slide in the standings.
Given both the Mets and Rockies have significant questions about their starters in this series, the bullpens will play a crucial role.
For the Rockies, the preseason gamble on Greg Holland has more than paid off. The closer is back to his elite status. He’s leading baseball with his 28 saves and has a 1.62 ERA. He is walking 4.3 per nine innings, but his 11.6 strikeout rate helps him strand those free passes.
What has really helped Holland is he’s not been alone. Jake McGee who was the headliner of the team’s trade of Corey Dickerson struggled last year, but has pitched as they expected him to this year with a 2.70 ERA. The Rockies’ lockdown back end, allows their offense a chance to do its thing late and steal some wins.
For the Mets, the story has been a vastly different one. The team’s bullpen ERA is second worst in the NL, topping on the Nationals whose bullpen woes have been well documented.
Offensive Comparison
To this point in the season, the Rockies have plated 55 more runs than the Mets though the Coors Field factor plays a role in that numbers. Interestingly, homer runs favor New York by 25 dingers.
Since the start of July, the Mets’ offense has really struggled. They’ve hit 11 homers in seven games, but have scored just 21 total runs. That’s only three a game. They’re batting .214 as a unit in those seven contests.
The Rockies have many more ways to score runs than the Mets. Colorado has good average hitters like D.J. LeMahieu—assuming he’s good to go after sitting out the All-Star game. Gerardo Parra and Raimel Tapia have also put up .335 and .323 averages when given an opportunity.
Meanwhile, Mark Reynolds bat has remained hot. He’s a slugger with a nice OBP. Then, of course, the tandem of Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon can trump anything the Mets can offer, including Jay Bruce, Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto.
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