The Colorado Rockies were the sexy pick as the surprise team in the National League. It’s still early, but as of right now, it looks like that pick was right one. Colorado has held its own against some of the better teams in the league and will get a bit of a breather as they escape the hitter’s dream park of Coors Field to the pitchers’ haven of Petco to take on the struggling San Diego Padres.
This series will be contested from Tuesday, May 2, 2017 through Thursday, May 4, 2017 at Petco Park in San Diego. Wednesday’s game will be available for those out of market live on MLB Network.
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Pitching Matchups
It’s been years since the Rockies favorably matched up on the pitching side in any given series, but it’s a more common occurrence this year and will be the case for this three game set against the Padres.
For the Rockies, they’ll send three of their better arms—at least on the road—this season to bump in Tyler Chatwood, Antonio Senzatela and Kyle Freeland. The Padres will counter with their assortment of relievers-turned-starts, has-beens and projects with Trevor Cahill, Jered Weaver and Luis Perdomo.
For the Tuesday matchup, Chatwood brings a 2.40 road ERA—as opposed to his 7.16 mark at home—into the game. Those splits have spilled over from last year and while it’s no surprise a pitcher fares better outside of Coors Field, the extreme nature of the splits has been a unique phenomenon for Chatwood.
Chatwood has faced the Padres once this year, that coming at home, where he went just 5.1 innings, allowing four runs. In his last road game, he pitched a completely game shutout against the Giants in another large ballpark.
On the other side, Cahill has reverted back to the mediocre starter he was before the Cubs turned him into a quality relief arm. He’s 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.333 WHIP. His FIP indicates he’s been a bit unlucky, but he’s walking a ton of guys though he has kept the opposition in the ballpark and that’s important against a stacked Rockies’ lineup.
Weaver, meanwhile, starts on Wednesday and he’s already allowed 10 home runs in 28.2 innings and his FIP is up to 7.31 as a result. He’s 0-2 with a 4.71 ERA overall and has been good at keeping runners off base. Of course, some of that is because they’re too busy circling them.
The Rockies close out the series with their two best starters so far in Senzatela on Wednesday and Freeland on Thursday. They’re both 3-1 this year with a 2.81 and 2.93 ERA respectively.
Senzatela has been particularly strong. Neither player has a particularly high strikeout rate, but Senzatela has kept the opposition off base and in the ballpark he’s only allowed three home runs. Freeland’s only given up one.
The Padres’ Thursday starter is Perdomo who’s made just three starts since coming off the disabled list. He’s yet to record a decision and has a 4.96 ERA in 16.1 innings following up a 5.71 ERA in 146.2 innings in a rookie season last year.
Injury Report
Ian Desmond is back for the Rockies, making his season debut on Sunday, going 1-for-5 in the game and striking out twice.
Desmond will need to be given some time to get back into midseason form so don’t expect too much from him in this series, but his mere presence gives Bud Black so much versatility. With Mark Reynolds swinging such a hot bat, look for Desmond to get most of his looks in the outfield like he did on Sunday; at least until Reynolds returns to earth. Black, however, can now matchup some as he has Gerardo Parra, Alexi Amarista and Pat Valaika all having pretty good at bats in their chances. This could afford the struggling Carlos Gonzalez a day or two off and Desmond could even fill in in the middle of the infield for Trevor Story as shortstop is, of course, his natural position.
As for the other injured players, David Dahl is revving things up. He’ll need a good number of at bats to get up to game speed though and will be out for this series.
For the Padres, they’re without speed outfielder Travis Jankowski. He wasn’t hitting in his chances this year, but his speed and defense is a bit of a game-changer and given the pitchers for San Diego, having what was essentially three centerfielders with Jankowski, Manuel Margot, and Hunter Renfroe was a blessing.
Bullpen Breakdown
Colorado has the edge in the bullpen, but based on per stats, it’s a bit closer than it is when you actually consider the details. The Rockies have a bullpen ERA of 4.28 while the Padres’ ERA is 4.87.
That half-run difference is a bit misleading. If the Rockies’ starters can get deep into the game, this bullpen can be completely lockdown in the last couple innings with Adam Ottovino and Greg Holland. Both have dominating closer stuff. In fact, Holland already has 11 saves. It’s the middle guys that can be beaten, particularly with Mike Dunn injured, but Jake McGee has good stuff, too, from the left side to add some depth.
For the Padres, Brandon Maurer is the closer, not that he gets many chances. Brad Hand has been good with 13 innings, allowing only one run. He’s really embraced the relief role after getting into 82 games last year so the workload may start wearing on him.
Other than those two, however, the Pads pen is barren. Kevin Quackenbush is injured and Ryan Buchter is living on the edge some with three homers allowed in his 11.2 innings, though he’s limited the damage to just four runs.
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