Not the Cubs, not the Nationals and not the Dodgers; it’s the Colorado Rockies that boasts the best record in the National League. The Rockies will take the NL leading team on the road this week for a four-game series in the City of Brotherly Love against the Philadelphia Phillies. While the Rockies continue to over-perform, the Phillies have been struggling mightily. Even at home, Philadelphia should drop this series handily.
This series will be contested from Monday, May 22, 2017 through Thursday, May 25, 2017 at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.
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Pitching Matchups
We should see Jeff Hoffman back to make the start for the Rockies on Monday after a one-start hiatus back to Triple-A.
Hoffman looked good in his debut start going 5.1 innings while allowing three runs on six hits against a much better Dodgers’ team. He gave up just a single hit in his minor-league outing.
Hoffman was a big part of the Troy Tulowitzki trade and remains a top-end prospect. He’s just 24-years old and has already shown flashes of how well his stuff can play at this level. The issue for him now is command both inside the strike zone and out. He did okay with walks in his first start, but has allowed two homers in 6.2 major league innings this year.
The Rockies’ rookie right-hander must out-pitch Phillies’ right-hander Jerad Eickhoff.
Eickhoff rebounded from a few bad starts in his last outing, throwing a quality start against Texas, leaving the game having allowed three runs in six innings.
Overall, he’s 0-4 in eight starts with a 4.53 ERA. He’s walking more than his fair share, making the command an issue for him as well though his is mostly relegated to missing outside the zone.
In the series’ second game, the Phillies will hope for a bounce back start from Zach Eflin who looked terrible in his last outing. He allowed seven runs and 11 hits in four innings against Texas. The Rangers were all over Eflin who could induce weak contact all season before that. In fact, he’s now pitching to a 4.25 ERA though the number was 2.81 going into his last game.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, German Marquez will start that second game for the Rockies hoping to keep the good times flowing. He allowed 13 runs in 16 innings over his first three starts and has given up one run in 13 innings in his last two. Pitch efficiency is still an issue for Marquez, but the Rox pen is strong.
The Rockies will close out the series with two pitchers going in opposite directions. Wednesday, Tyler Chatwood will try and get things righted. He’s 2-4 with a 6.06 ERA in his last six starts walking nearly a batter per innings, but this is also the same pitcher with a two-hit shutout earlier in the year.
On the other hand, Thursday features southpaw Tyler Anderson who is 2-1 with a 3.06 in his last three starts as he continues to bounce back from a slow start.
At least the Rockies have one starter trending in the right direction in those final two games. The Phillies do not.
Jeremey Hellickson pitches on Wednesday and he looked worth the Qualifying Offer salary in April with a sub-2 ERA, but he’s not getting the job done in May and neither is Vince Velasquez.
He may have the best stuff of anyone on this roster, but Velasquez is lost right now. Even when he’s getting outs, he cannot go deep in games due to pitch count, but ineffectiveness due terrible command and control is the bigger issue right now. He’s 2-4 in eight starts this year with a 5.98 ERA.
Betting Trends
This is not a shock, but the Phillies are bad. They’re really bad.
This team pulled a stunt in the team’s first 20 games, going 11-9, but are just 4-17 in the last 21. Overall, this team is probably somewhere in the middle of those two numbers, but they likely lean closer to the most recent stretch.
Philadelphia has struggled in all facets of the game. On Sunday, they lost to the Pirates, 1-0, despite getting great pitching and amidst their last 11 games, they’ve lost games where they’ve scored nine runs.
Since the beginning of May, the Phillies have an ERA of 5.63, better only than the Mets and they’ve platted just 77 runs, a well below average number as well.
While the overall picture is terrible, the latest numbers for Tommy Joseph and Aaron Altherr have been amazing. If you’re looking for optimism for this Phillies’ team, look there. This month alone, Altheer has hit six home runs and driven in 19 with a 1.080 OPS. Joseph’s homers and RBIs are quite as impressive, but he’s still slugging plenty on his own and has a 1.149 OPS in the month with a .345 batting average.
Focusing on the Rockies, this is a team with much better overall team numbers on both sides of the ball.
The important thing to note on the trends, however, is the uptick for Carlos Gonzalez. He’s had a dismal start to the season and it’s been a lot of bad for a long time now, but he’s looked good over the last week going 6-for-22 with a home run and a couple doubles.
Similarly, DJ LeMahieu may be heating up after a slow start as well. He’s 8-for-25 in his last week and is hitting .342 in the month of May.
Bullpen Comparison
Pitching at Coors is a struggle, yet the Rockies have a team ERA nearly a half run lower than the Phillies who, while they do still play in a hitter friendly park, have a much less toxic park for pitchers than Coors Field.
The bullpen is where the Rockies outshine the Phillies.
The spread in ERAs between the teams here is now closer to three quarters of a run and should be larger if not for Hector Neris and Pat Neshek, the only two reliable arms in that pen now.
Neshek has been huge, providing a unique arm angle while Neris at least gives this team a chance in a one-run game in the ninth.
All of that said, the bullpen is one spot the Rockies’ front office chose to target and that’s paid off.
It seems like we’ve gone back in time a few years as Craig Kimbrel and Greg Holland are again the two best closers in baseball and again, we have one in the AL and one in the NL.
Holland has 18 saves already as he effectively allows the Rockies to close the door after eight. His 1.02 ERA is demoralizing for opposing hitters as is his 12.2 strikeouts per nine and his 0.792 WHIP.
Nearly as demoralizing now, is having to go through Adam Ottavino and Jake McGee in the seventh and eighth to get to Holland.
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