Padres starter James Shields has a good case against his teammates if he wants to sue for lack of support. The big right-hander has been backed by a total of 18 runs in his 10 starts, which makes it surprising that he’s won two games. Not surprising, however, is that the under is 8-2 in those 10 starts.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Outside of their trips to Colorado and Arizona, scoring runs has been a chore for the Padres. San Diego plated 32 runs in a three-game visit to Coors Field earlier in the years and scored 17 times in the first two games at Arizona over the weekend. All told, the Pads are averaging just a smidge under 10 runs a game in those five contests.
Overall, however, the Padres are 28th in the majors in scoring, and that likely won’t improve in a notorious pitcher-friendly park like Safeco. The under is 14-6 in San Diego’s road games that aren’t played in Denver or Phoenix. San Diego starter James Shields has been plagued by poor run support with the under at 8-2 in games he starts.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
James Shields (2-6, 3.06 ERA) is coming off yet another quality start in which he wasn’t backed by much run support. He surrendered two runs on five hits with six strikeouts over six innings and took a no-decision in a game the Giants won 4-3. He’s pitched far better than his 2-6 record indicates but his mates have scored a total of 18 runs in his 10 starts.
The artist formerly known as Big Game James has now tossed at least six innings in all 10 of his outings and owns a 1.83 ERA over his last three. The Pads are shopping Shields and rumors of a deal with the White Sox are heating up. We’ll see how this affects his performance on Tuesday.
Hisashi Iwakuma (3-4, 4.33 ERA) has had an inconsistent season, but has now won his last two starts, helped by the Mariners scoring 21 runs in those outings. He tossed a quality start Wednesday against the Athletics, giving up three runs and eight hits over seven innings in a 13-3 win. For the first time all season Iwakuma did not walk a batter and the impeccable control returned. He had issued 17 free passes over 55.1 innings of his first nine starts.
Iwakuma’s 1.38 WHIP seems primed to come back to normal levels as does his 4.33 ERA. The only time he faced the Padres was in relief in 2012, allowing a single to the only batter he faced.
LIVE BETTING
Unlike last season, Robinson Cano started 2016 hot and hasn’t let up. The six-time All-Star is second in the American League in homers and RBIs, producing monster numbers for a second-baseman. He’s on pace for 49 home runs and 151 RBIs, though it’s doubtful he can maintain that level in the power department, the encouraging thing for the Mariners is that Cano isn’t hitting over his head in anything but the long-ball department. His .295 batting average and .345 on-base percentage are both lower than his career averages.
An improvement in those areas is waiting in the form of Padres starter Shields. The two have a long history together from their days in the AL East, and Cano has won his share of head-to-head battles. Cano has 37 lifetime hits off Shields and is batting .411 with nine double, two triples and five home runs in 90 at-bats.
QUICK PICK
Facing the Padres is what Iwakuma needs to get his game back on track. The Mariners’ starter has been effective in his last two outings and looks primed to put the light-hitting Friars down. But winning at Safeco has been an issue for the M’s, who were swept by the last-place Twins over the weekend. Seattle, despite the home woes, continues to hover around the top the AL West and their troubles can’t last all season, can they? San Diego is the worst hitting team in the bigs and they just can’t score with Shields on the bump. That’s not going to change in spacious Safeco Field.
MLB Odds: Seattle 3, San Diego 2
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